Mária Režňáková

Bankruptcy Prediction Models: Can the Prediction Power of the Models be Improved by Using Dynamic Indicators?

Abstract The present approach to developing bankruptcy prediction models uses financial ratios related to the time of one year before bankruptcy. Some authors try to improve the prediction accuracy of the models by using averaged ratios involving several years before bankruptcy. This of course assumes that a bankruptcy can be predicted several years ahead. This idea led us to investigating the differences between the dynamics of the financial ratios developments. Here we assume that the dynamics of the values of some indicators in a group of prospering companies may be different from that of those facing bankruptcy threats. The indicators that showed a significant difference in the development dynamics were used to develop a bankruptcy prediction model. The research was carried out using data of the Czech manufacturing industries obtained from the AMADEUS database for years 2004 to 2011, with each company providing data for up to five years prior to the bankruptcy. Along with investigating the different approach to the selection of indicators for the development of a bankruptcy model, we were also concerned with the selection of a method to develop it. Researching the literature, we found that the most commonly used method is one of linear discrimination analysis, whose precision is improved if applied to normally distributed data without outliers. With financial data, however, these assumptions are difficult to meet. Therefore, a non-parametric boosted-trees method was used to select the predictors and develop the bankruptcy models.

Age related discrimination in the context of corporate social responsibility and company performance. The case of the Czech Republic

Abstract At least 30% of European population will be formed by people of age 65 and above. At the moment it is more than 7% in the Czech Republic. To sustain their quality of life it is necessary for them to stay in employment longer than in the past. These changes in the demographical structure bring about social tension between job applicants. Apart from that there have been many stereotypes about the lower performance of older employees. This leads to unwillingness to employ these employees, which in effect may lead to a loss of the crucial knowledge possessed by them. This is one of the most worrying dangers the companies face today. Although the current legislation of the Czech Republic does conform to the EU standards, occasional cases can be found of age-related discrimination.

The factors driving the synergy value in mergers of mechanical engineering companies in the Czech Republic

Research into factors that influence the outcome of mergers and acquisitions conducted over a few past decades focused on two areas, one being the forecasting of the volume of expected investments, the other investigating M&A efficiency, i.e. the search for the factors that drive the growth of value of combined firms (identification of the sources of synergy). Operating synergies, resulting from cost savings and investment reduction, are deemed the primary source of synergy. Determining the synergy value is a prerequisite for identifying sources of savings. This paper presents the results of research aimed at determining the synergy value and identifying the factors representing potential sources of synergy. The discounted capital cash flow method was used to determine the synergy value. In the set of 50 mergers carried out between 2004 and 2011 that we investigated, we found that a negative synergy effect developed at an average level of 8.13%. This means that most of these mergers were not associated with additional profits for the owners. The correlation between the selected financial ratios and the synergy value was tested. The results show that there is a statistically significant relationship between the indicators based on cash flow and the synergy value.

Efficiency of Mergers of Mechanical Engineering Companies in the Czech Republic

Abstract This paper presents the research results in the field of the efficiency of mergers and acquisitions in the mechanical engineering industry of the Czech Republic. The aim of this paper is to determine whether mergers taking place in mechanical engineering are successful, or possibly to identify factors which may be deemed as synergies sources. In our research, the success rate of mergers is identified on the basis of the increasing revenues and operating profit. It has been established that out of mergers completed in 2004 - 2011, success has been achieved in approximately half of them. For this reason, we have focused on identifying the factors which may serve as the reasons for such a difference. The selected indicators of the cost-to-revenue ratio and utilization of fixed assets, investments, and net working capital we analysed before and after the mergers in both groups of successful and unsuccessful mergers. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to test the results. The research results have demonstrated that synergies are not achieved due to the change in the market power of the merged companied but owing to operational efficiency which is reflected in a drop in labour costs and depreciation to revenues ratios and increasing asset utilization.