Maria Rost Rublee

THE NUCLEAR THRESHOLD STATES Challenges and Opportunities Posed by Brazil and Japan

“Nuclear threshold states”—those that have chosen nuclear restraint despite having significant nuclear capabilities—seem like the perfect partners for the reinvigorated drive toward global nuclear disarmament. Having chosen nuclear restraint, threshold states may embrace disarmament as a way to guarantee the viability of their choice (which may be impossible in a proliferating world). Supporting disarmament efforts affirms their restraint, both self-congratulating and self-fulfilling. Additionally, the commitment to their non-nuclear status springs at least in part from a moral stance against nuclear weapons that lends itself to energetic support of global disarmament. However, threshold states also offer significant challenges to the movement for nuclear weapons elimination, in particular in relation to acquisition of enrichment and reprocessing facilities. This article analyzes both the challenges and opportunities posed by threshold states by examining the cases of Brazil and Japan.

EGYPT'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM

The Egyptian nuclear weapons program—started in 1960 and closed by 1973—can lend insights into todays potential proliferators. First, a number of signs indicating that Cairo was pursing a nuclear option were present, giving us insight into what type of signs we might see from countries seeking nuclear weapons today. While indicators do not necessarily connote intent, my research shows that in the Egyptian case, these signs were indeed warnings that Cairo was seeking a military nuclear capability. Second, a number of external and internal factors combined to shut down the nuclear program, and fortunately, some of these external factors are still applicable today, giving us potential tools to use in persuading other states to forgo nuclear weapons.The Egyptian nuclear weapons program—started in 1960 and closed by 1973—can lend insights into todays potential proliferators. First, a number of signs indicating that Cairo was pursing a nuclear option were present, giving us insight into what type of signs we might see from countries seeking nuclear weapons today. While indicators do not necessarily connote intent, my research shows that in the Egyptian case, these signs were indeed warnings that Cairo was seeking a military nuclear capability. Second, a number of external and internal factors combined to shut down the nuclear program, and fortunately, some of these external factors are still applicable today, giving us potential tools to use in persuading other states to forgo nuclear weapons.

Fantasy Counterfactual: A Nuclear-Armed Ukraine

The suggestion that Ukraine should have kept its Soviet-era nuclear weapons is a counterfactual fantasy that groans under the weight of its technical, political and strategic assumptions.

Scholarly research on nuclear exits: the role of civil society

Conventional wisdom about nuclear weapons decision-making argues that nuclear policy is based on material cost-benefit calculations, with systemic forces propelling states into a narrow range of choices. Nuclear proliferation is unsurprising, given the anarchical state system; non-proliferation will succeed only if the great powers can enforce it through a system of benefits and sanctions; disarmament is both unlikely and undesirable. I argue that the conventional wisdom is wrong on all counts. Nuclear weapons decision-making is more than a simple response to material conditions: ideational influences, including norms, psychology, language and beliefs, shape global nuclear futures in incontrovertible ways. As a result, nuclear proliferation is rare, nonproliferation is more often embraced than forced and the issue of disarmament has become more, not less, potent. This article will first paint the broad trends in scholarly research on the causes of nuclear exits, and then it will focus on the much smaller literature that connects civil society to nuclear exits. Next, it looks at the potential for applying social psychology to draw out best practices for civil society groups, and finally it raises important research gaps that deserve examination.

Civil society and nuclear non-proliferation: How do states respond? [Book Review]

Review(s) of: Civil society and nuclear non-proliferation: How do states respond?, by Claudia Kissling. Burlington, VT: Ashgate; 2008, xiii + 207 pp.