Mariachiara Di Cesare

Inequalities in non-communicable diseases and effective responses.

In most countries, people who have a low socioeconomic status and those who live in poor or marginalised communities have a higher risk of dying from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) than do more advantaged groups and communities. Smoking rates, blood pressure, and several other NCD risk factors are often higher in groups with low socioeconomic status than in those with high socioeconomic status; the social gradient also depends on the countrys stage of economic development, cultural factors, and social and health policies. Social inequalities in risk factors account for more than half of inequalities in major NCDs, especially for cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. People in low-income countries and those with low socioeconomic status also have worse access to health care for timely diagnosis and treatment of NCDs than do those in high-income countries or those with higher socioeconomic status. Reduction of NCDs in disadvantaged groups is necessary to achieve substantial decreases in the total NCD burden, making them mutually reinforcing priorities. Effective actions to reduce NCD inequalities include equitable early childhood development programmes and education; removal of barriers to secure employment in disadvantaged groups; comprehensive strategies for tobacco and alcohol control and for dietary salt reduction that target low socioeconomic status groups; universal, financially and physically accessible, high-quality primary care for delivery of preventive interventions and for early detection and treatment of NCDs; and universal insurance and other mechanisms to remove financial barriers to health care.

A novel risk score to predict cardiovascular disease risk in national populations (Globorisk): a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health examination surveys

BACKGROUND Treatment of cardiovascular risk factors based on disease risk depends on valid risk prediction equations. We aimed to develop, and apply in example countries, a risk prediction equation for cardiovascular disease (consisting here of coronary heart disease and stroke) that can be recalibrated and updated for application in different countries with routinely available information. METHODS We used data from eight prospective cohort studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equation with proportional hazard regressions. The risk prediction equation included smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol, and allowed the effects of sex and age on cardiovascular disease to vary between cohorts or countries. We developed risk equations for fatal cardiovascular disease and for fatal plus non-fatal cardiovascular disease. We validated the risk equations internally and also using data from three cohorts that were not used to create the equations. We then used the risk prediction equation and data from recent (2006 or later) national health surveys to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of cardiovascular disease risk in 11 countries from different world regions (China, Czech Republic, Denmark, England, Iran, Japan, Malawi, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, and USA). FINDINGS The risk score discriminated well in internal and external validations, with C statistics generally 70% or more. At any age and risk factor level, the estimated 10 year fatal cardiovascular disease risk varied substantially between countries. The prevalence of people at high risk of fatal cardiovascular disease was lowest in South Korea, Spain, and Denmark, where only 5-10% of men and women had more than a 10% risk, and 62-77% of men and 79-82% of women had less than a 3% risk. Conversely, the proportion of people at high risk of fatal cardiovascular disease was largest in China and Mexico. In China, 33% of men and 28% of women had a 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease of 10% or more, whereas in Mexico, the prevalence of this high risk was 16% for men and 11% for women. The prevalence of less than a 3% risk was 37% for men and 42% for women in China, and 55% for men and 69% for women in Mexico. INTERPRETATION We developed a cardiovascular disease risk equation that can be recalibrated for application in different countries with routinely available information. The estimated percentage of people at high risk of fatal cardiovascular disease was higher in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. FUNDING US National Institutes of Health, UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust.

The contributions of risk factor trends to cardiometabolic mortality decline in 26 industrialized countries

BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease mortality has declined and diabetes mortality has increased in high-income countries. We estimated the potential role of trends in population body mass index, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol and smoking in cardiometabolic mortality decline in 26 industrialized countries. METHODS Mortality data were from national vital statistics. Body mass index, systolic blood pressure and serum total cholesterol were from a systematic analysis of population-based data. We estimated the associations between change in cardiometabolic mortality and changes in risk factors, adjusted for change in per-capita gross domestic product. We calculated the potential contribution of risk factor trends to mortality decline. RESULTS Between 1980 and 2009, age-standardized cardiometabolic mortality declined in all 26 countries, with the annual decline between <1% in Mexico to ≈ 5% in Australia. Across the 26 countries together, risk factor trends may have accounted for ≈ 48% (men) and ≈ 40% (women) of cardiometabolic mortality decline. Risk factor trends may have accounted for >60% of decline among men and women in Finland and Switzerland, men in New Zealand and France, and women in Italy; their benefits were smallest in Mexican, Portuguese, and Japanese men and Mexican women. Risk factor trends may have slowed down mortality decline in Chilean men and women and had virtually no effect in Argentinean women. The contributions of risk factors to mortality decline seemed substantially larger among men than among women in the USA, Canada and The Netherlands. CONCLUSIONS Industrialized countries have varied widely in the extent of risk factor prevention, and its likely benefits for cardiometabolic mortality.

Geographical and socioeconomic inequalities in women and children's nutritional status in Pakistan in 2011: an analysis of data from a nationally representative survey

Summary Background Pakistan has one of the highest levels of child and maternal undernutrition worldwide, but little information about geographical and socioeconomic inequalities is available. We aimed to analyse anthropometric indicators for childhood and maternal nutrition at a district level in Pakistan and assess the association of nutritional status with food security and maternal and household socioeconomic factors. Methods We used data from the 2011 Pakistan National Nutrition Survey, which included anthropometric measurements for 33 638 children younger than 5 years and 24 826 women of childbearing age. We estimated the prevalences of stunting, wasting, and underweight among children and of underweight, overweight, and obesity in women for all 143 districts of Pakistan using a Bayesian spatial technique. We used a mixed-effect linear model to analyse the association of nutritional status with individual and household sociodemographic factors and food security. Findings Stunting prevalence in Pakistans districts ranged between 22% (95% credible interval 19–26) and 76% (69–83); the lowest figures for wasting and underweight were both less than 2·5% and the highest were 42% (34–50) for wasting and 54% (49–59) for underweight. In 106 districts, more women were overweight than were underweight; in 49 of these districts more women were obese than were underweight. Children were better nourished if their mothers were taller or had higher weight, if they lived in wealthier households, and if their mothers had 10 or more years of education. Severe food insecurity was associated with worse nutritional outcomes for both children and women. Interpretation We noted large social and geographical inequalities in child and maternal nutrition in Pakistan, masked by national and provincial averages. Pakistan is also beginning to face the concurrent challenge of high burden of childhood undernutrition and overweight and obesity among women of reproductive age. Planning, implementation, and evaluation of programmes for food and nutrition should be based on district-level needs and outcomes. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Grand Challenges Canada, UK Medical Research Council.

Use of an age-period-cohort model to reveal the impact of cigarette smoking on trends in Twentieth-century adult cohort mortality in England and Wales

We use an age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the contribution of smoking-related mortality to cohort changes in adult mortality in Britain since 1950. We show that lung cancer and overall mortality can be satisfactorily modelled using cohort relative risk and a fixed age pattern. The results of the model suggest that smoking by itself can account for a substantial fraction of change in cohort mortality for those born around the first half of the twentieth century. In particular, smoking provides an explanation for the higher-than-average improvement in the mortality of both males and females born around 1930. Our confidence in the correctness of the results of the models is strengthened by the fact that they are very similar to those of the Peto–Lopez and Preston–Glei–Wilmoth models that estimate the contribution of smoking-related to overall mortality.

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys.

BACKGROUND Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40-74 years. METHODS Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40-64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. FINDINGS Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ≥20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes. INTERPRETATION Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements. FUNDING National Institutes of Health.

Forecasting Mortality, Different Approaches for Different Cause of Deaths? The Cases of Lung Cancer; Influenza, Pneumonia, and Bronchitis; and Motor Vehicle Accidents

Most of the methods of mortality forecasting have been assessed using performance on overall mortality, and few studies address the issue of identifying the appropriate forecasting models for specific causes of deaths. This study analyses trends and forecasts mortality rates for three major causes of death — lung cancer, influenza-pneumonia-bronchitis, and motor vehicle accidents — using Lee–Carter, Booth–Maindonald–Smith, Age-Period-Cohort, and Bayesian models, to assess how far different causes of death need different forecasting methods. Using data from the Twentieth and Twenty-First Century Mortality databases for England and Wales, results show major differences among the different forecasting techniques. In particular, when linearity is the main driver of past trends, Lee–Carter-based approaches are preferred due to their straightforward assumptions and limited need for subjective judgment. When a clear cohort pattern is detectable, such as with lung cancer, the Age-Period-Cohort model shows the best outcome. When complete and reliable historical trends are available the Bayesian model does not produce better results than the other models.

Access to antenatal care and children’s cognitive development: a comparative analysis in Ethiopia, Peru, Vietnam and India

ObjectivesEarly life interventions are considered essential for reducing the burden of health inequalities over the life course. This paper tests this issue empirically focusing on whether access to antenatal care can later reduce children’s health and educational inequalities.MethodsData came from the Young Lives Project for Ethiopia, Peru, Vietnam, and the State of Andhra Pradesh in India. We selected children born in early 2001/2002 and who were followed longitudinally in 2006/2007. We used multilevel mixed effects linear regression models to estimate the parameters of interest.ResultsWe found a positive and significant relationship between mothers’ access to antenatal care and their children’s cognitive development in all countries. In addition, we found a positive and significant relationship between antenatal care and children’s cognitive development for stunted children but only in Peru and Vietnam.ConclusionsWe conclude that (1) antenatal care has the potential to change the negative consequences of early nutritional deficiencies on later cognitive development in Peru and Vietnam; (2) differentials in the quality of antenatal care services could explain the cross-country differentials in the role of early life interventions found here.

Student-Generated Pre-Exam Questions is an Effective Tool for Participatory Learning: A Case Study from Ecology of Waterborne Pathogens Course: Learning gains from question design…

This multi-year study helps elucidate how the instructional practice of student-generated questions support learning in a blended classroom in STEM subjects. Students designed multiple-choice pre-exam questions aimed at higher levels of learning, according to Blooms taxonomy. Student-generated questions were edited by the instructor and then discussed by the students in the classroom and in an online forum. We tested the hypothesis that this intervention improves student learning, measured as student achievement on the exam following the intervention, and compared to student achievement on the traditional exam (prior to which a review session focused on instructor-led recitation of the key concepts). Following the intervention in all years, average grade on the post-intervention exam increased by 7.44%. It is important to point out that not all students benefited equally from this activity. Students who were in the 4th quintile (60-80%) based on the results of the first exam demonstrated the highest achievement improving their performance on average by 12.37% percentage points (measured as a score on the second exam). Gains were not observed in the semesters when the intervention was not implemented. In this study we provided students detailed instructions on how to design questions that focus on testing higher levels of learning.This multi-year study helps elucidate how the instructional practice of student-generated questions support learning in a blended classroom in STEM subjects. Students designed multiple-choice pre-exam questions aimed at higher levels of learning, according to Blooms taxonomy. Student-generated questions were edited by the instructor and then discussed by the students in the classroom and in an online forum. We tested the hypothesis that this intervention improves student learning, measured as student achievement on the exam following the intervention, and compared to student achievement on the traditional exam (prior to which a review session focused on instructor-led recitation of the key concepts). Following the intervention in all years, average grade on the post-intervention exam increased by 7.44%. It is important to point out that not all students benefited equally from this activity. Students who were in the 4th quintile (60-80%) based on the results of the first exam demonstrated the highest achievement improving their performance on average by 12.37% percentage points (measured as a score on the second exam). Gains were not observed in the semesters when the intervention was not implemented. In this study we provided students detailed instructions on how to design questions that focus on testing higher levels of learning.

Historical Trends of Mortality and its Implications for Health Policies in England and Wales: The Cause of Death Approach

The LSE Companion to Health Policy covers a wide range of conceptual and practical issues from a number of different perspectives introducing the reader to, and summarising, the vast literature that analyses the complexities of health policy. The Companion also assesses the current state of the art.