Marian Weber

A Regional Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Agriculture

Climate change is expected to alter production opportunities facing agricultural producers. Global studies of climate change impacts on agriculture suggest positive benefits for Canada. Results from Canadian studies tend to be more pessimistic; however, most of these studies are regionally specific and focus on the impacts on specific crops, particularly grains and oilseeds. This paper examines the impact of climate change on Canadian agricultural land values. Changes in land values are used to impute expected changes to agricultural GDP. We find that all provinces benefit from climate change and that previous estimates may be overly pessimistic.

Cumulative Effects Assessment: Linking Social, Ecological, and Governance Dimensions

Setting social, economic, and ecological objectives is ultimately a process of social choice informed by science. In this special feature we provide a multidisciplinary framework for the use of cumulative effects assessment in land use planning. Forest ecosystems are facing considerable challenges driven by population growth and increasing demands for resources. In a suite of case studies that span the boreal forest of Western Canada to the interior Atlantic forest of Paraguay we show how transparent and defensible methods for scenario analysis can be applied in data-limited regions and how social dimensions of land use change can be incorporated in these methods, particularly in aboriginal communities that have lived in these ecosystems for generations. The case studies explore how scenario analysis can be used to evaluate various land use options and highlight specific challenges with identifying social and ecological responses, determining thresholds and targets for land use, and integrating local and traditional knowledge in land use planning. Given that land use planning is ultimately a value-laden and often politically charged process we also provide some perspective on various collective and expert-based processes for identifying cumulative impacts and thresholds. The need for good science to inform and be informed by culturally appropriate democratic processes calls for well-planned and multifaceted approaches both to achieve an informed understanding of both residents and governments of the interactive and additive changes caused by development, and to design action agendas to influence such change at the ecological and social level.

Cumulative Effects Planning: Finding the Balance Using Choice Experiments

Cumulative effects management requires understanding the environmental impacts of development and finding the right balance between social, economic, and environmental objectives. We explored the use of choice experiments to elicit preferences for competing social, economic, and ecological outcomes in order to rank land and resource development options. The experiments were applied in the Southeast Yukon, a remote and resource rich region in Northern Canada with a relatively large aboriginal population. The case study addresses two issues of concern in cumulative effects management: the willingness to discount future environmental costs for immediate development benefits, and the existence of limits of acceptable change for communities affected by development. These issues are thought to be particularly relevant for First Nations in Northern Canada where cultural identify is tied to the land and continuity of the community is an important value. We found that residents of the Southeast Yukon value benefits from both development and conservation and must make trade-offs between these competing objectives in evaluating land use scenarios. Based on the preference information we evaluated four land use scenarios. Conservation scenarios ranked higher than development scenarios, however, there was significant heterogeneity around preferences for conservation outcomes suggesting a low degree of consensus around this result. We also found that residents did not discount the future highlighting the importance of intergenerational equity in resource development decisions. We did not find evidence of development thresholds or limits of acceptable change. Interestingly we found no difference in preferences between the aboriginal and non-aboriginal populations.

Economic and environmental tradeoffs from alternative water allocation policies in the South Saskatchewan River Basin

This paper compares the economic and environmental performance of a share versus a prior allocation system for managing water in Alberta’s South Saskatchewan River Basin. Currently, water is allocated on a priority basis, and moving to a share system would involve significant political and legal challenges. In the absence of water trading, both initial allocation systems result in poor economic outcomes, but the prior allocation performs particularly badly. Efficiency improves with water trading as licensees respond to opportunities to reallocate water to higher value uses. However, under prior allocation, water is more concentrated with senior licensees who capture more of the gains from trade. The share system does not result in improved environmental outcomes. Water trading results in improved instream flows as water is reallocated to upstream municipal uses, which have high return flows. The analysis suggests that improving institutions for trading water will provide better economic outcomes and environmental protection than reforming the initial allocation, and that government should focus its efforts on directly reserving water for the environment.

Tradable Disturbance Permits for Old-growth Forest Conservation: Experimental Evaluation of Implementation Options

Experiments are used to examine the performance of tradable disturbance permits (TDPs) for meeting old-growth targets on public forest land. TDPs are an allowance-based cap-and-trade system for rights to disturb forest for development of timber and energy resources. Treatments compare three market institutions for permit allocation: second-price sealed-bid (SPSB) auction and grandfathering permits to the forest sector with a call or double-auction resale market. The large size of the forest sector creates opportunities for strategic interactions. Additional treatments include banking, uncertainty from forest fires, and adaptive caps. Grandfathering to the forest sector with a double-auction resale market outperformed the SPSB auction, alleviating concerns about market power. Without fire, banking had a negative effect on energy firms and total market surplus. Adaptive caps increased permits during low-fire seasons with a positive effect on surplus to energy firms and total market surplus.

Agricultural and Water in Canada – Challenges and Reform for the 21 C

Agriculture is the dominant water use in Canada and the main contributor to non-point source pollution in agricultural watersheds contributing to toxic algal blooms in some of Canada’s and the world’s largest freshwater lakes. Water governance in Canada is fragmented, with water resources managed separately from land uses that contribute to water challenges. The performance of agri-environmental policies encouraging the adoption of beneficial management practices is also mixed. Efficient and effective farm level water management strategies will increase in importance over the next century as climate change and increasing demands for food put pressure on water quality and quantity. This chapter examines farm level decisions that affect water quality and quantity, and the factors that contribute to adoptability of beneficial practices. Decentralized and fragmented governance contributes to weak institutions for integrating water and agricultural land management resulting in poor monitoring and governance gaps at scales required to manage nutrient loads into major freshwater lakes as well emerging threats from unregulated pollutants. The potential for water quality trading to address risks from non-point source pollution is examined, along with opportunities for reform in Canada.

Response to “Comment on ‘Economic and environmental tradeoffs from alternative water allocation policies in the South Saskatchewan River Basin’” by Richard J. Phillips and D. Rodney Bennett

In 2009, the Government of Alberta undertook a review of the water allocation system to determine whether the current system for allocating water rights would serve Albertans well under the emerging pressures of population growth, industrial development and climate change. Stakeholder and expert reports disagreed on the risks and fairness associated with the prior allocation system and water transfers in the face of future water demand and supply challenges. The purpose of the paper “Economic and environmental tradeoffs from alternative water allocation policies in the South Saskatchewan River Basin” (Weber and Cutlac 2014) was to examine water allocation under an inflexible hypothetical scenario in order to compare the performance of the current allocation system to an alternative share system, and determine the need for reform. The full license build-out assessed in the study represents a departure from reality. However, the scenario was not intended to reflect a current or even realistic future but rather a fully allocated future in order to test the robustness of prior allocation under extreme conditions, as stated on p. 412 (Weber and Cutlac 2014). The model includes a number of simplifying assumptions, and the comment by Phillips and Bennett identifies a number of important caveats that should be considered. In particular, the caveats suggest a lower disparity in economic efficiency and willingness to pay for water under the initial allocation for the prior versus share system than those illustrated in the modeled results. In spite of the caveats, however, the underlying dynamics and conclusions of the model still hold; without trading, prior allocation will be less efficient than share allocation because currently most water in the basin is allocated to lower value agricultural uses, and in a shortage more licensees will receive water under the share allocation. Water trading eliminates the inefficiencies associated with initial allocation (both initial allocations are inefficient without trading) and therefore there is no need from either an environmental or an economic perspective to change the allocation system. Specific concerns are addressed below, and the conclusions highlight areas for further research.