Mariana Conte Grand

Implications of a dynamic target of greenhouse gases emission reduction: the case of Argentina

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the greenhouse gases (GHG) emission target adopted by Argentina. It contains a summary of the process that led to the formulation of the emission target, including GHG inventories, macroeconomic and sectoral projections, and mitigation options. Fixed and dynamic indexes such as the Carbon Intensity Index are discussed, concluding that the latter is not appropriate for most developing countries. This is the case, in particular, for countries whose GHG emissions are not solely dependent on GDP growth, but also on other variables, such as international prices and market conditions for their agricultural products. The index recommended for Argentina was based on the square root of GDP. It went a step further by producing, for the chosen level of reduction, not only a positive relation between GDP and allowable emissions, but also a relation of the same sign between GDP and emission reductions.

A Reassessment of Argentina's GHG Proposed Target

At the time of Argentina´s greenhouse gases emissions reduction voluntary commitment, most of the articles on intensity targets had not been published. The aim of this paper is to (re)discuss briefly the proposal made by Argentina taking into account that literature. To justify the adopted target form and stringency, we compare fixed and dynamic targets in terms of the likelihood of “hot air”, the relationship between allowed emissions and GDP, the link between abatement and GDP, and outcomes´ dispersion. But, the assumptions implicit in the design of the target may change those properties. We show how the BAU scenario taken as reference and the level of emissions reduction affects targets´ design and characteristics. Finally, considering different emissions projections, we perform a comparison between allowed emissions and projected ones during the first half commitment period (2008-2010), concluding that compliance with the commitment depends on the data source used in the calculations.

Relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP functional form and decoupling

The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between Emissions-GDP functional form and decoupling behaviour in developed and developing countries. With data for the period 1960-2012 for 27 European countries and 18 CELAC nations, this research employs a Box-Cox specification to capture the CO2 emissions-GDP connection, considering, at the same time, the time-series properties of both variables. We find that the Box-Cox functional form describes better the relationship between income and pollution in UE and CELAC countries, but there are differences regarding decoupling behaviour. Many European countries have increased economic activity while decreasing emissions, but that behaviour is not observed among CELAC nations. Except when delinking between CO2 and GDP is strong, this mismatch between functional form and decoupling is explained because the type of decoupling depends on both the slope of the relationship between emissions and GDP and on the level of both indicators.

Using the Box-Cox transformation to approximate the shape of the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP: A note

With CAIT WRI data for those countries which submitted quantifiable CO2 emission caps under the Copenhagen Agreement, this note supports the existence of a long run relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP in 11 of the 26 countries in our sample over the period 1980-2008. However, the functional specification of that relationship is not homogenous among nations, being linear for 2 countries, log-log for 2 other cases, while the relationship follows a Box-Cox functional form for 7 nations. Elasticities of the emissions-income relationship also differ among counties. But in most cases (8 out of 11), the magnitude of the average elasticity is less than 1 (emissions increase less than GDP).

Self-Assessed Health as a Key Determinant of Lifestyles: An Application to Tobacco Consumption in Argentina

The relationship between lifestyle choices and health has been widely studied in the epidemiological and economic literature. In the last years, empirical research was directed towards the use of recursive systems with structural equations for a health production function and reduced form equations for lifestyles. As a result, behaviors toward health are taken to be determined by exogenous socio-economic variables. In this article, we show that health is a key determinant of health habits. When people feel well, they adopt less healthy behaviors. We use maximum simulated likelihood for a multivariate 5 equation probit model. In that model, lifestyles (diet, exercise, alcohol consumption and smoking) are a function of exogenous socioeconomic variables and self-reported health. Self-reported health varies with socio-economic characteristics and depends on health indicators that are the consequence of lifestyles undertaken in the past (i.e., overweight, blood pressure, diabetes and cholesterol levels). Data is that of adults in Argentina´s 2005 Risk Factors National Survey. We find that health partial effects on lifestyle are much larger having accounted for health endogeneity. Accounting for unobservable variables that jointly determine all lifestyles does not change much the magnitude of our results. Our findings are robust to different specifications.