Marianna Brunetti

The internal and cross market efficiency in index option markets: an investigation of the Italian market

The aim of the present paper is to provide evidence on the internal efficiency of the Italian index option market and to verify the consistency of the latter notion of efficiency with the cross market one. To this end a model-free approach is taken, whereby strategies involving only options are tested by means of a high frequency dataset. These strategies may provide a superior test of parity among index options since they do not involve the index replication issues and usefully complete previous studies which focused on cross-market efficiency only. The results obtained clearly support the efficiency of the Italian market and comparatively highlight a high level of consistency between internal and cross market efficiency.

Marriage and other risky assets: a portfolio approach

We study the joint impact of gender and marital status on financial decisions. First, we test the hypothesis that marriage represents - in a portfolio framework - a sort of safe asset, and that this effect is stronger for women. Controlling for a number of observable characteristics, we show that single women have a lower propensity to invest in risky assets than married females and males. Second, we show that the differential behavior of single women evolves over time, reflecting the increasing incidence of divorce and the expansion of female labor market participation. In particular, towards the end of our sample period, we observe a reduction in the gap between women with different family status, which can be attributed to the gradual erosion of the perception of marriage as a sort of safe asset. Our results therefore suggest that the differential behavior of single vs. married women can be explained by the evolution of gender roles in society, even after controlling for differential risk attitudes. Our empirical investigation is based on a dataset drawn from the 1989-2006 Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth.

Economic activity and recession probabilities: information content and predictive power of the term spread in Italy

The aim of the present article is to examine the information content of the Italian term spread as for real economic growth rates and recession probabilities and to test its predictive power in forecasting regime probabilities. To this end the relationship between the term spread and economic growth rates is modelled as a nonlinear one and specifically the Logistic Smooth Transition model is used, while a probit model is implemented to forecast recession probabilities. Specific to this article is the use of the OECD business cycle chronology, which was never used before to this end for the Italian case. Overall evidence supports the informative content of the spread in Italy over the whole period (1984–2005) although results are more satisfactory as from 1992. In particular, recession forecasts are generally better than those obtained with other chronologies previously adopted for the Italian case (ISAE and ECRI).

Population age structure and household portfolio choices in Italy

Based on the exceptional ageing of the Italian population, this paper aims to contribute to the current debate on population ageing and financial markets. To this end, we use the data taken by the Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth over the period 1995–2006, and we analyse the average household portfolios in relation to age and net wealth (NW). Our analysis rests on a clustering of assets according to risk, which is different from the one used in Guiso and Jappelli (Guiso, L., and T. Jappelli. 2002. The portfolio of Italian households. In Household portfolios, eds. L. Guiso, M. Haliassos, and T. Jappelli. Cambridge: MIT Press). We find that age has affected financial choices of Italian households over the whole decade, but the portfolio age profile has significantly evolved over time with important differences across wealth quartiles. Overall, our analysis highlights a tendency towards a hump-shaped age profile of the allocation in risky assets for the most NW levels.

Is it Money or Brains? The Determinants of Intra-Family Decision Power

We empirically study the determinants of intra-household decision power with respect to economic and financial choices using a suitable direct measure provided in the 1989-2010 Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth. Focusing on a sample of couples, we evaluate the effect of each spouses characteristics, household characteristics, and background variables. We find that the probability that the wife is in charge is affected by household characteristics such as family size and total income and wealth, but more importantly that it increases with the difference between hers and her husbands characteristics in terms of age, education, and income. The main conclusion is that decision-making power over family economics is not only determined by strictly economic differences, as suggested by previous studies, but also by differences in human capital and experience. Finally, exploiting the time dimension of our dataset, we show that this pattern is increasing over time.

Is Financial Fragility a Matter of Illiquidity? An Appraisal for Italian Households

In this paper we investigate household financial fragility and assess the role played by the composition of the household portfolio besides standard determinants of this condition (e.g. income, indebtedness, age, gender, financial literacy). We take the case of Italy, given the very peculiar portfolio composition (high level of housing and low level of indebtedness and portfolio diversification) and provide two main contributions. First, we propose a novel definition of financial fragility. Second, based on this new measure, we use data from the 1998-2010 Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth to investigate the determinants of this condition. Our results confirm most usual markers of financial fragility and additionally highlight the role of homeownership, which is not related to the presence of mortgages but it is rather connected to specific socio-demographic features such as age and marital status.

The Role of Demographic Variables in Explaining Financial Returns in Italy

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the relationship between asset returns and age-structure by investigating the case of Italy, which is experiencing one of the most pronounced ageing in the world. To this end, time-series regressions are run, in which real returns on different financial assets (stocks, long- and short-term government bonds) are used as dependent variables. The dataset contains annual observations spanning over the period 1958-2004. First, as in Poterba (2001, 2004) only demographic variables are used as explanatory ones. Then, following Davis and Li (2003) the regression specifications are completed with a set of financial variables which have finance-theoretical underpinnings. Results point towards a major effect of demographic dynamics on financial asset returns which appear significantly higher in magnitude than what Poterba (2001, 2004) and Davis and Li (2003) report for US, especially in the stock market.

The Effect of Population Ageing on Household Portfolio Choices in Italy

Based on widely accepted evidence on the exceptional ageing of the Italian population, this paper aims to assess the impact of ageing on household portfolios in Italy and hence ultimately on financial markets. To this end, we use data taken by the Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) over the last decade and we analyse the average household portfolio in relation to demographic characteristics. In contrast to some results reported in the literature for the US, we find that financial choices of Italian households are sensibly affected by age. It follows that the exceptional ageing of the population in Italy is going to have relevant consequences on the Italian financial market.

Second Homes: Households' Life Dream or (Wrong) Investment?

While purchasing the primary home is mainly motivated by essential consumption needs, a second house has generally been considered a good investment. However, second homes may result in disparate final uses, including unprofitable ones. We contribute to the scant literature on second houses by empirically investigating the cases of unrented second homes, which represent the most notable unprofitable use. We use the 2002-2012 Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth which also provides information on real estates actual use. Our results highlight: a gender gap, whereby the unprofitable use is more frequent among male; no association with household’s economic characteristics; and, a strong association with the real estate features, with inherited dwellings more likely to be unprofitably used. Besides casting some doubts on the goodness of second homes as an investment, our results have important policy implications on the housing and rental markets, calling for policy or regulatory interventions.

Second homes in Italy: every household’s dream or (un)profitable investments?

Abstract The use of a second home may result in different outcomes for households, ranging from financial profit and holiday use to uses that are clearly unprofitable. We contribute to the literature on second homes by exploring the case of second homes that are not let out, representing the least profitable outcome from an economic viewpoint. The empirical investigation relies on the 2002–2012 Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW), which also provides extensive information on property, including the actual use. Our results highlight: a gender gap, whereby the unprofitable use of second homes tends to be more clearly associated with male decision-makers; a lack of association with the economic characteristics of the household; and a strong association with the specific characteristics of the property, with inherited property more likely to be used unprofitably. In addition to casting doubt on the effectiveness of second homes as an investment vehicle, our results may have important policy or regulatory implications for housing and rental markets.