Marianne Klemp

Cancer risk with folic acid supplements: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objective To explore if there is an increased cancer risk associated with folic acid supplements given orally. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis of controlled studies of folic acid supplementation in humans reporting cancer incidence and/or cancer mortality. Studies on folic acid fortification of foods were not included. Data sources Cochrane Library, Medline, Embase and Centre of Reviews and Dissemination, clinical trial registries and hand-searching of key journals. Results From 4104 potential references, 19 studies contributed data to our meta-analyses, including 12 randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Meta-analysis of the 10 RCTs reporting overall cancer incidence (N=38 233) gave an RR of developing cancer in patients randomised to folic acid supplements of 1.07 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.14) compared to controls. Overall cancer incidence was not reported in the seven observational studies. Meta-analyses of six RCTs reporting prostate cancer incidence showed an RR of prostate cancer of 1.24 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.49) for the men receiving folic acid compared to controls. No significant difference in cancer incidence was shown between groups receiving folic acid and placebo/control group, for any other cancer type. Total cancer mortality was reported in six RCTs, and a meta-analysis of these did not show any significant difference in cancer mortality in folic acid supplemented groups compared to controls (RR 1.09, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.30). None of the observational studies addressed mortality. Conclusions A meta-analysis of 10 RCTs showed a borderline significant increase in frequency of overall cancer in the folic acid group compared to controls. Overall cancer incidence was not reported in the seven observational studies. Prostate cancer was the only cancer type found to be increased after folic acid supplementation (meta-analyses of six RCTs). Prospective studies of cancer development in populations where food is fortified with folic acid could indicate whether fortification similar to supplementation moderately increases prostate cancer risk.

Long-term follow-up of patients with resected pancreatic cancer following vaccination against mutant K-ras

K‐ras mutations are frequently found in adenocarcinomas of the pancreas and can elicit mutation‐specific immune responses. Targeting the immune system against mutant Ras may thus influence the clinical course of the disease. Twenty‐three patients who were vaccinated after surgical resection for pancreatic adenocarcinoma (22 pancreaticoduodenectomies, one distal resection), in two previous Phase I/II clinical trials, were followed for more than 10 years with respect to long‐term immunological T‐cell reactivity and survival. The vaccine was composed of long synthetic mutant ras peptides designed mainly to elicit T‐helper responses. Seventeen of 20 evaluable patients (85%) responded immunologically to the vaccine. Median survival for all patients was 27.5 months and 28 months for immune responders. The 5‐year survival was 22% and 29%, respectively. Strikingly, 10‐year survival was 20% (four patients out of 20 evaluable) versus zero (0/87) in a cohort of nonvaccinated patient treated in the same period. Three patients mounted a memory response up to 9 years after vaccination. The present observation of long‐term immune response together with 10‐year survival following surgical resection indicates that K‐ras vaccination may consolidate the effect of surgery and represent an adjuvant treatment option for the future.

Corticosteroids and risk of gastrointestinal bleeding: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective To assess whether corticosteroids are associated with increased risk of gastrointestinal bleeding or perforation. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised, double-blind, controlled trials comparing a corticosteroid to placebo for any medical condition or in healthy participants. Studies with steroids given either locally, as a single dose, or in crossover studies were excluded. Data sources Literature search using MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews between 1983 and 22 May 2013. Outcome measure Outcome measures were the occurrence of gastrointestinal bleeding or perforation. Predefined subgroup analyses were carried out for disease severity, use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) or gastroprotective drugs, and history of peptic ulcer. Results 159 studies (N=33 253) were included. In total, 804 (2.4%) patients had a gastrointestinal bleeding or perforation (2.9% and 2.0% for corticosteroids and placebo). Corticosteroids increased the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding or perforation by 40% (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.66). The risk was increased for hospitalised patients (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.66). For patients in ambulatory care, the increased risk was not statistically significant (OR 1.63, 95% CI 0.42 to 6.34). Only 11 gastrointestinal bleeds or perforations occurred among 8651 patients in ambulatory care (0.13%). Increased risk was still present in subgroup analyses (studies with NSAID use excluded; OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.71, peptic ulcer as an exclusion criterion excluded; OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.78, and use of gastroprotective drugs excluded; OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.67). Conclusions Corticosteroid use was associated with increased risk of gastrointestinal bleeding and perforation. The increased risk was statistically significant for hospitalised patients only. For patients in ambulatory care, the total occurrence of bleeding or perforation was very low, and the increased risk was not statistically significant.

Interactions between health technology assessment, coverage, and regulatory processes: Emerging issues, goals, and opportunities

BACKGROUND The relationship between regulatory approval on the one hand and health technology assessment (HTA) and coverage on the other is receiving growing attention. Those responsible for regulatory approval, HTA, and coverage have different missions and their information requirements reflect these. There is nonetheless an increasingly popular view that improved communication and coordination between these functions could allow them all to be undertaken effectively with a lower overall burden of evidence requirements, thus speeding patient access to new products and reducing unnecessary barriers to innovation. This study summarizes the main points emerging from a recent discussion of this topic at the HTAi Policy Forum. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS After considering the roles of the various bodies, stakeholder perspectives and some current practical initiatives, those present at the Forum meeting discussed possible goals and challenges for improved interactions-in general and at specific stages of the product development life cycle. Opportunities for progress were seen in: continuing the dialogue to promote understanding and interaction between the different bodies and stakeholders; working to align scientific advice for manufacturers on the design and data requirements of pre- and post-marketing evaluation of products (specifically phase 2/3 and phase 4 trials for drugs); and extending the current dialogue to include discussion of product development to address unmet health needs.

A review and Bayesian meta-analysis of clinical efficacy and adverse effects of 4 atypical neuroleptic drugs compared with haloperidol and placebo.

Aims: The objective of the study was to examine the efficacy and the degree of adverse effects connected with atypical neuroleptic drugs and haloperidol by using a previously described Bayesian statistical method that includes both direct and indirect comparisons simultaneously. Methods: The authors used the results of 30 double-blind, randomized studies including comparisons of 4 atypical neuroleptics and haloperidol, head-to-head or against placebo. We calculated the response ratios for drugs against placebo and thereafter the relative response ratios for one drug against another. With uniform priors, we calculated and ranked the posterior estimates of response ratios for antipsychotic effect, weight gain, and occurrence of extrapyramidal symptoms. Results: All second-generation neuroleptics analyzed are fairly effective with response ratios against placebo ranging between 1.55 (credibility interval, 1.36-1.76) and 1.99 (1.76-2.26), with clozapine being the most effective and aripiprazole the least effective among them. The risk of inducing weight gain is clearly very high for all 5 neuroleptic drugs compared with placebo with response ratios of 12.21 (10.22-15.05) for olanzapine and 11.28 (6.89-17.77) for clozapine. There is a clear increased risk of extrapyramidal adverse effects for haloperidol compared with placebo as the response ratio is 2.33 (2.03-2.49). The other drugs all have considerably less risk of extrapyramidal adverse effects. Conclusions: The 4 second-generation neuroleptics included in our meta-analysis show only small differences in overall efficacy, with clozapine being the most effective and aripiprazole the least effective among them. When the risk of adverse effects is analyzed, olanzapine and clozapine are afflicted with the highest risk of inducing weight gain and haloperidol with extrapyramidal symptoms. Even aripiprazole and risperidone, however, induce considerable weight gain compared with placebo but may be acceptable alternatives when tailoring drug treatment to the individual patient.

INTERACTION INITIATIVES BETWEEN REGULATORY, HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT AND COVERAGE BODIES, AND INDUSTRY

There has been an increased focus on the relationship between health technology assessment (HTA) and regulatory assessments and how regulatory, HTA and coverage bodies, and industry can work better together to improve efficiency and alignment of processes. There is increasingly agreement across sectors that improved communication and coordination could contribute to facilitating timely patient access to effective, affordable treatments that offer value to the health system. Discussions on aspects of this relationship are being held in different forums and various forms of coordination and collaboration are being developed or piloted within several jurisdictions. It is therefore both timely and of value to stakeholders to describe and reflect on current initiatives intended to improve interactions between regulatory, HTA and coverage bodies, and industry. Drawing on 2011 meetings of the HTAi Policy Forum and the Center for Innovation in Regulatory Science (CIRS), this study aims to describe and compare initiatives, and point to success factors and challenges that are likely to inform future work and collaboration.

Modeling the impact of screening policy and screening compliance on incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in the post-HPV vaccination era

BACKGROUND In Norway, pap smear screening target women aged 25-69 years on a triennial basis. The introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) mass immunization in 2009 raises questions regarding the cost-saving future changes to current screening strategies. METHODS We calibrated a dynamic HPV transmission model to Norwegian data and assessed the impact of changing screening 20 or 30 years after vaccine introduction, assuming 60 or 90% vaccination coverage. Screening compliance among vaccinated women was assumed at 80 or 50%. Strategies considered: (i) 5-yearly screening of women of 25-69 years, (ii) 3-yearly screening of women of 30-69 years and (iii) 3-yearly screening of women of 25-59 years. RESULTS Greatest health gains were accomplished by ensuring a high vaccine uptake. In 2060, cervical cancer incidence was reduced by an estimated 36-57% compared with that of no vaccination. Stopping screening at the age of 60 years, excluding opportunistic screening, increased cervical cancer incidence by 3% (2060) compared with maintaining the current screening strategy, resulting in 1.0-2.4% extra cancers (2010-2060). The 5-yearly screening strategy elevated cervical cancer incidence by 30% resulting in 4.7-11.3% additional cancers. CONCLUSION High vaccine uptake in the years to come is of primary concern. Screening of young women <30 years remains important, even under the conditions of high vaccine coverage.

Comparing Effects of Biologic Agents in Treating Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Multiple Treatment Comparison Regression Analysis.

Rheumatoid arthritis patients have been treated with disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and the newer biologic drugs. We sought to compare and rank the biologics with respect to efficacy. We performed a literature search identifying 54 publications encompassing 9 biologics. We conducted a multiple treatment comparison regression analysis letting the number experiencing a 50% improvement on the ACR score be dependent upon dose level and disease duration for assessing the comparable relative effect between biologics and placebo or DMARD. The analysis embraced all treatment and comparator arms over all publications. Hence, all measured effects of any biologic agent contributed to the comparison of all biologic agents relative to each other either given alone or combined with DMARD. We found the drug effect to be dependent on dose level, but not on disease duration, and the impact of a high versus low dose level was the same for all drugs (higher doses indicated a higher frequency of ACR50 scores). The ranking of the drugs when given without DMARD was certolizumab (ranked highest), etanercept, tocilizumab/ abatacept and adalimumab. The ranking of the drugs when given with DMARD was certolizumab (ranked highest), tocilizumab, anakinra, rituximab, golimumab/ infliximab/ abatacept, adalimumab/ etanercept. Still, all drugs were effective. All biologic agents were effective compared to placebo, with certolizumab the most effective and adalimumab (without DMARD treatment) and adalimumab/ etanercept (combined with DMARD treatment) the least effective. The drugs were in general more effective, except for etanercept, when given together with DMARDs.

ENDPOINTS FOR RELATIVE EFFECTIVENESS ASSESSMENT (REA) OF PHARMACEUTICALS

OBJECTIVES Clinical endpoints are defined as valid measures of clinical benefit or harm due to treatment, that describe the impact of treatment on how a patient feels, functions, and survives. The choice of endpoints and the manner in which they are reported have a major impact on the relative effectiveness assessment (REA) of pharmaceuticals. The aim of this article is to describe the guideline development process and the key findings that set a framework for appropriate use of endpoints in REAs in Europe. METHODS A multi-health technology assessment (HTA)-agency collaborative process in EUnetHTA JA1 was used to scope, draft, and finalize methodological guidelines for REA in Europe. RESULTS Patient-relevant clinical endpoints can be broadly categorized into: mortality, morbidity and health-related quality of life. A clinical endpoint is a main symptom or sign of a disease that is clinically relevant, valid, reproducible and responsive to change. Preference is for long-term or final endpoints whenever possible. Surrogate endpoints may be used when there is compelling evidence of a clear and consistent correlation of treatment effects on the surrogate and final outcome of interest. CONCLUSIONS The relevance and hierarchy of the different types of clinical endpoints depend on the research question, disease, and the treatment investigated. Not only the primary endpoint, but also other relevant endpoints are assessed in comparison to adequate comparator(s). This simultaneous assessment of all relevant endpoints is a hallmark of REA.

New anticoagulants as thromboprophylaxis after total hip or knee replacement.

OBJECTIVES Due to a high risk of thromboembolism in patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery, it has become standard practice to give thromboprophylactic treatment. We assessed the relative efficacy and cost-effectiveness of two new oral anticoagulants, rivaroxaban and dabigatran, relative to subcutaneous enoxaparin for the prevention of thromboembolism after total hip replacement (THR) and total knee replacement surgery (TKR). METHODS We conducted a systematic review of the literature to assess efficacy and safety, and evaluated quality of documentation using GRADE. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by developing a decision model. The model combined two modules; a decision tree for the short-term prophylaxis and a Markov model for the long-term complications and survival gain. RESULTS For rivaroxaban compared with enoxaparin, we found statistically significant decreases in deep vein thrombosis, but also a trend toward increased risk of major bleeding. For mortality and pulmonary embolism there were no statistically significant differences between the treatments. We did not find statistically significant differences between dabigatran and enoxaparin for our efficacy and safety outcomes. Assuming a willingness to pay of EUR62,500 per QALY, rivaroxaban following THR had a probability of 38 percent, and enoxaparin following TKR had a probability of 34 percent of being cost-effective. Clinical efficacy had the greatest impact on decision uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS Dabigatran and rivaroxaban are comparable with enoxaparin following THR and TKR regarding the efficacy and safety outcomes. However, there is great uncertainty regarding which strategy is the most cost-effective. More research on clinical efficacy of rivaroxaban and dabigatran is likely to change our results.