Marie Bessec

What Causes The Forecasting Failure of Markov-Switching Models? A Monte Carlo Study

This paper explores the forecasting abilities of Markov-Switching models. Although MS models generally display a superior in-sample fit relative to linear models, the gain in prediction remains small. We confirm this result using simulated data for a wide range of specifications by applying several tests of forecast accuracy and encompassing robust to nested models. In order to explain this poor performance, we use a forecasting error decomposition. We identify four components and derive their analytical expressions in different MS specifications. The relative contribution of each source is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. We find that the main source of error is due to the misclassification of future regimes.

Short-Term Forecasts of French GDP: A Dynamic Factor Model with Targeted Predictors

In recent years, factor models have received increasing attention from both econometricians and practitioners in the forecasting of macroeconomic variables. In this context, Bai and Ng (2008) find an improvement in selecting indicators according to the forecast variable prior to factor estimation (targeted predictors). In particular, they propose using the LARS-EN algorithm to remove irrelevant predictors. In this paper, we adapt the Bai and Ng procedure to a setup in which data releases are delayed and staggered. In the pre-selection step, we replace actual data with estimates obtained on the basis of past information, where the structure of the available information replicates the one a forecaster would face in real time. We estimate on the reduced dataset the dynamic factor model of Giannone, Reichlin and Small (2008) and Doz, Giannone and Reichlin (2011), which is particularly suitable for the very short-term forecast of GDP. A pseudo real-time evaluation on French data shows the potential of our approach.

Short-run electricity load forecasting with combinations of stationary wavelet transforms

Short-term forecasting of electricity load is an essential issue for the management of power systems and for energy trading. Specific modeling approaches are needed given the strong seasonality and volatility in load data. In this paper, we investigate the benefit of combining stationary wavelet transforms to produce one day-ahead forecasts of half-hourly electric load in France. First, we assess the advantage of decomposing the aggregate load into several subseries with a wavelet transform. Each component is predicted separately and aggregated to get the final forecast. One innovation of this paper is to propose several approaches to deal with the boundary problem which is particularly detrimental in electricity load forecasting. Second, we examine the benefit of combining forecasts over individual models. An extensive out-of-sample evaluation shows that a careful treatment of the border effect is required in the multiresolution analysis. Combinations including the wavelet predictions provide the most accurate forecasts. This result is valid with several assumptions about the forecast error in temperature and for different types of hours (peak, normal, off-peak), different days of the week and various forecasting periods.

Forecasting GDP Over the Business Cycle in a Multi‐Frequency and Data‐Rich Environment

This paper merges two specifications recently developed in the forecasting literature: the MS-MIDAS model (Guerin and Marcellino, 2013) and the factor-MIDAS model (Marcellino and Schumacher, 2010). The MS-factor MIDAS model that we introduce incorporates the information provided by a large data set consisting of mixed frequency variables and captures regime-switching behaviours. Monte Carlo simulations show that this specification tracks the dynamics of the process and predicts the regime switches successfully, both in-sample and out-of-sample. We apply this model to US data from 1959 to 2010 and properly detect recessions by exploiting the link between GDP growth and higher frequency financial variables.

Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors

This paper explores the existence of a bounce-back effect in inventory investment using the European Commission opinion survey on stocks of finished products in manufacturing and retail trade sectors. The data are quarterly balance for France, Germany and a European aggregate, from 1985q1 to 2011q4. Our empirical findings support the existence of a high recovery episode for inventory investment, during the quarters immediately following the recessions. This could in turn explain the real GDP growth rate bounce-back pointed out in previous empirical studies. Moreover, according to our estimates, the inventory investment bounce-back occurs later and lasts longer in manufacturing than in retail trade sector.

The causality link between energy prices, technology and energy intensity

This chapter deals with a field of renewed interest in energy economics: the relationship between energy prices and energy intensity, which is measured by the ratio of final energy consumption to total output (GDP).1 For years, economic papers have been studying energy intensity through the decomposition of the energy demand (Wing and Eckaus, 2004, and Liu, 2005). The link between energy prices and energy intensity has not really been analysed and is nowhere nearly as well established as other relations. A third variable, technological progress, may interfere in this relation. In a first analysis, it appears that technological changes can be stimulated by energy price increases and more efficient equipment reduces the energy demand. At the same time, an increase of energy demand is possible through a change in habits of consumption (changes in energy services, or energy use, and so forth). The causality link is complicated by this variable technology and its effects on energy consumption.

Impacts of decentralised power generation on distribution networks: a statistical typology of European countries

The development of decentralized sources of power out of renewable sources of energies has been triggering far-reaching consequences for Distribution System Operators over the past decade in Europe. Our paper benchmarks across 23 European countries the impact of the development of renewables on the physical characteristics of power distribution networks and on their investments. It builds on a large spectrum of databases of quantitative indicators about the dynamics of installed capacity of renewable energy resources and the power generation out of them, electricity independence, quality of electricity distribution, smart grids investments, Network System Operators capital expenditures, length of the distribution networks, overall costs of power networks paid by private agents, and electricity losses, all in relation with the development of decentralized generation. The heterogeneity of these indicators across Europe appears to be wide notably because of physical constraints, historic legacies, or policy and regulatory choices. A cluster analysis allows for deriving six groups of countries that display statistically homogenous characteristics. Our results may provide decision makers and regulators with a tool helping them to concentrate on the main issues specific to their countries as compared to the European median, and to look for possible solutions in the experience of other clusters which are shown to perform better for some indicators.

Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business cycle phases with mixed-frequency data

ABSTRACT This paper introduces a Markov-switching model in which transition probabilities depend on higher frequency indicators and their lags through polynomial weighting schemes. The MSV-MIDAS model is estimated through maximum likelihood (ML) methods with a slightly modified version of Hamilton’s filter. Monte Carlo simulations show that ML provides accurate estimates, but they suggest some caution in interpreting the tests of the parameters in the transition probabilities. We apply this new model to forecast business cycle turning points in the United States. We properly detect recessions by exploiting the link between GDP growth and higher frequency variables from financial and energy markets.

Revisiting the transitional dynamics of business-cycle phases with mixed frequency data

This paper introduces a Markov-switching model in which transition probabilities depend on higher frequency indicators and their lags through polynomial weight-ing schemes. The MSV-MIDAS model is estimated via maximum likelihood (ML) methods. The estimation relies on a slightly modified version of Hamiltons recursive filter. We use Monte Carlo simulations to assess the robustness of the estimation procedure and related test statistics. The results show that ML provides accurate estimates, but they suggest some caution in interpreting the tests of the parameters involved in the transition probabilities. We apply this new model to the detection and forecasting of business cycle turning points in the United States. We properly detect recessions by exploiting the link between GDP growth and higher frequency variables from financial and energy markets. The spread term is a particularly useful indicator to predict recessions in the United States. The empirical evidence also supports the use of functional polynomial weights in the MIDAS specification of the transition probabilities.