Marie-Joëlle Zahar

Critical Junctures and Missed Opportunities: The Case of Lebanon's Cedar Revolution

Abstract This article addresses three shortcomings in the path dependency literature on critical junctures: the neglect of negative cases, non-state actors and of power asymmetries. The 2005 Cedar Revolution had the makings of a critical juncture. Yet despite the rise of alternative non-governmental organizations (ANGOs) seeking to change the sectarian political system, a public ready for change, renewed donor interest and funds, little came of this juncture; Lebanons ANGOs are now inactive. This paper questions why. Building on fieldwork conducted between 2006 and 2010, it argues that the Cedar Revolution was a critical juncture and that this critical juncture was marked by a substantial power asymmetry between ANGOs and Lebanons sectarian political actors. Nonetheless, the renewed donor interest in promoting a stable and democratic Lebanon could have reduced this power gap; however, the politics of Western democracy promotion ultimately reinforced the hold of sectarian leaders on Lebanons political scene.

Lebanon: Confessionalism, Consociationalism, and Social Cohesion

The notion of negative resilience is Lebanon’s foremost contribution to the study of social cohesion in deeply divided societies. Aoun and Zahars analysis of the Lebanon case illustrates the manner in which the confessional system of consociational governance deeply constrains donors’ efforts to foster cross-cutting social engagement, and to reconfigure state–society relationships. Social cohesion is strong within confessional communities yet weak across them. Since the outburst of armed conflict in neighboring Syria, Lebanon’s apparent stability has been described as a sign of social cohesion. Yet, the country is constantly on the brink of collapse. In this context, Aoun and Zahar describe how Lebanon’s negative resilience is as much the result of elite calculations as it is the outcome of social and political dynamics that have created economically interdependent yet socially separate communities.