Marie L. Urban

PlanetSense: a real-time streaming and spatio-temporal analytics platform for gathering geo-spatial intelligence from open source data

Geospatial intelligence has traditionally relied on the use of archived and unvarying data for planning and exploration purposes. In consequence, the tools and methods that are architected to provide insight and generate projections only rely on such datasets. Albeit, if this approach has proven effective in several cases, such as land use identification and route mapping, it has severely restricted the ability of researchers to inculcate current information in their work. This approach is inadequate in scenarios requiring real-time information to act and to adjust in ever changing dynamic environments, such as evacuation and rescue missions. In this work, we propose PlanetSense, a platform for geospatial intelligence that is built to harness the existing power of archived data and add to that, the dynamics of real-time streams, seamlessly integrated with sophisticated data mining algorithms and analytics tools for generating operational intelligence on the fly. The platform has four main components -- i) GeoData Cloud -- a data architecture for storing and managing disparate datasets; ii) Mechanism to harvest real-time streaming data; iii) Data analytics framework; iv) Presentation and visualization through web interface and RESTful services. Using two case studies, we underpin the necessity of our platform in modeling ambient population and building occupancy at scale.

Estimating traveler populations at airport and cruise terminals for population distribution and dynamics

In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

Facility detection and popularity assessment from text classification of social media and crowdsourced data

Advances in technology have continually progressed our understanding of where people are, how they use the environment around them, and why they are at their current location. Having a better knowledge of when various locations become popular through space and time could have large impacts on research fields like urban dynamics and energy consumption. In this paper, we discuss the ability to identify and locate various facility types (e.g. restaurant, airport, stadiums) using social media, and assess methods in determining when these facilities become popular over time. We use standard natural language processing tools and machine learning classifiers to interpret geotagged Twitter text and determine if a user is seemingly at a location of interest when the tweet was sent. On average our classifiers are approximately 85% accurate varying across multiple facility types, with a peak precision of 98%. By using these standard methods to classify unstructured text, geotagged social media data can be an extremely useful tool to better understanding the composition of places and how and when people use them.

Uncertainty quantification techniques for population density estimates derived from sparse open source data

The Population Density Tables (PDT) project at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (www.ornl.gov) is developing population density estimates for specific human activities under normal patterns of life based largely on information available in open source. Currently, activity-based density estimates are based on simple summary data statistics such as range and mean. Researchers are interested in improving activity estimation and uncertainty quantification by adopting a Bayesian framework that considers both data and sociocultural knowledge. Under a Bayesian approach, knowledge about population density may be encoded through the process of expert elicitation. Due to the scale of the PDT effort which considers over 250 countries, spans 50 human activity categories, and includes numerous contributors, an elicitation tool is required that can be operationalized within an enterprise data collection and reporting system. Such a method would ideally require that the contributor have minimal statistical knowledge, require minimal input by a statistician or facilitator, consider human difficulties in expressing qualitative knowledge in a quantitative setting, and provide methods by which the contributor can appraise whether their understanding and associated uncertainty was well captured. This paper introduces an algorithm that transforms answers to simple, non-statistical questions into a bivariate Gaussian distribution as the prior for the Beta distribution. Based on geometric properties of the Beta distribution parameter feasibility space and the bivariate Gaussian distribution, an automated method for encoding is developed that responds to these challenging enterprise requirements. Though created within the context of population density, this approach may be applicable to a wide array of problem domains requiring informative priors for the Beta distribution.

Utilizing Geo-located Sensors and Social Media for Studying Population Dynamics and Land Classification

The ability to understand where, when, and why humans move across space and time has always been essential to research areas such as urban planning, transportation, population dynamics, and emergency preparedness and response. The increasing sources of activity data is generating novel opportunities to understand human dynamics that previously was not possible; Geo-located user generated content from mobile devices and sensors allow a level of spatial and temporal granularity that could possibly answer the reasons for human movement at a high-resolution. This work discusses a broad array of research agenda in human dynamics and land use by proposing an explicit model that assists in delineating and articulating the opportunities, challenges, and limitations of using new forms of unauthoritated data, such as social media in main-stream GIS research. We study mobile phone call volume and GPS locations to characterize human activity patterns and provide inference on land use. Later, we demonstrate the ability of geo-located social media posts to provide insight on population density estimates for special events and Points of Interest detection. The chapter underpins the need to utilize new forms of data collection mechanism as well as their use to augment our understanding of human dynamics research and future application of geographical information systems.

Can Social Media Play a Role in the Development of Building Occupancy Curves

The demand for building occupancy estimation continues to grow in a wide array of application domains, such as population distribution modeling, green building technologies, public safety, and natural hazards loss analytics. While much has been gained in using survey diaries, sensor technologies, and dasymetric modeling, the volume and velocity of social media data provide a unique opportunity to measure and model occupancy patterns with unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution. If successful, patterns or occupancy curves could describe the fluctuations in population across a 24 h period for a single building or a class of building types. Although social media hold great promise in responding to this need, a number of challenges exist regarding representativeness and fitness for purpose that, left unconsidered, could lead to erroneous conclusions about true building occupancy. As a mode of discussion, this chapter presents an explicit social media model that assists in delineating and articulating the specific challenges and limitations of using social media. It concludes by proposing a research agenda for further work and engagement in this domain.

Data driven approach for high resolution population distribution and dynamics models

High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.