Marie-Louise Newell

Mortality of infected and uninfected infants born to HIV-infected mothers in Africa: a pooled analysis.

BACKGROUND HIV contributes substantially to child mortality, but factors underlying these deaths are inadequately described. With individual data from seven randomised mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) intervention trials, we estimate mortality in African children born to HIV-infected mothers and analyse selected risk factors. METHODS Early HIV infection was defined as a positive HIV-PCR test before 4 weeks of age; and late infection by a negative PCR test at or after 4 weeks of age, followed by a positive test. Mortality rate was expressed per 1000 child-years. We investigated the effect of maternal health, infant HIV infection, feeding practices, and age at acquisition of infection on mortality assessed with Cox proportional hazards models, and allowed for random effects for trials grouped geographically. FINDINGS 378 (11%) of 3468 children died. By age 1 year, an estimated 35.2% infected and 4.9% uninfected children will have died; by 2 years of age, 52.5% and 7.6% will have died, respectively. Mortality varied by geographical region, and was associated with maternal death (adjusted odds ratio 2.27, 95% CI 1.62-3.19), CD4+ cell counts <200 per microL (1.91, 1.39-2.62), and infant HIV infection (8.16, 6.43-10.33). Mortality was not associated with either ever breastfeeding and never breastfeeding in either infected or uninfected children. In infected children, mortality was significantly lower for those with late infection than those with early infection (0.52, 0.39-0.70). This effect was also seen in analyses of survival from the age at infection (0.74, 0.55-0.99). INTERPRETATION These findings highlight the necessity for timely antiretroviral care, for support for HIV-infected women and children in developing countries, and for assessment of prophylactic programmes to prevent MTCT, including child mortality and infection averted.

Risk of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 transmission through breastfeeding

Detection of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in breast milk by culture and polymerase chain reaction does not necessarily mean that breastfeeding is a route of transmission, although evidence from several case-reports points in that direction. We undertook a systematic review of published studies meeting criteria that allowed determination of quantitative risk of transmission via breastfeeding. Based on four studies in which mothers acquired HIV-1 postnatally, the estimated risk of transmission is 29% (95% Cl 16-42%). Analysis of five studies showed that when the mother was infected prenatally, the additional risk of transmission through breastfeeding, over and above transmission in utero or during delivery, is 14% (95% Cl 7-22%). Where there are safe alternatives to breastfeeding, universal named testing of pregnant women would provide an opportunity to advise more infected women not to breastfeed and might thereby reduce the number of vertically infected children. Since breastfeeding protects against infant deaths from infectious diseases, breastfeeding is still recommended where infectious diseases are a common cause of death in childhood, despite the additional risk of HIV transmission.

Mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 infection during exclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months of life: an intervention cohort study.

BACKGROUND Exclusive breastfeeding, though better than other forms of infant feeding and associated with improved child survival, is uncommon. We assessed the HIV-1 transmission risks and survival associated with exclusive breastfeeding and other types of infant feeding. METHODS 2722 HIV-infected and uninfected pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa (seven rural, one semiurban, and one urban), were enrolled into a non-randomised intervention cohort study. Infant feeding data were obtained every week from mothers, and blood samples from infants were taken monthly at clinics to establish HIV infection status. Kaplan-Meier analyses conditional on exclusive breastfeeding were used to estimate transmission risks at 6 weeks and 22 weeks of age, and Coxs proportional hazard was used to quantify associations with maternal and infant factors. FINDINGS 1132 of 1372 (83%) infants born to HIV-infected mothers initiated exclusive breastfeeding from birth. Of 1276 infants with complete feeding data, median duration of cumulative exclusive breastfeeding was 159 days (first quartile [Q1] to third quartile [Q3], 122-174 days). 14.1% (95% CI 12.0-16.4) of exclusively breastfed infants were infected with HIV-1 by age 6 weeks and 19.5% (17.0-22.4) by 6 months; risk was significantly associated with maternal CD4-cell counts below 200 cells per muL (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 3.79; 2.35-6.12) and birthweight less than 2500 g (1.81, 1.07-3.06). Kaplan-Meier estimated risk of acquisition of infection at 6 months of age was 4.04% (2.29-5.76). Breastfed infants who also received solids were significantly more likely to acquire infection than were exclusively breastfed children (HR 10.87, 1.51-78.00, p=0.018), as were infants who at 12 weeks received both breastmilk and formula milk (1.82, 0.98-3.36, p=0.057). Cumulative 3-month mortality in exclusively breastfed infants was 6.1% (4.74-7.92) versus 15.1% (7.63-28.73) in infants given replacement feeds (HR 2.06, 1.00-4.27, p=0.051). INTERPRETATION The association between mixed breastfeeding and increased HIV transmission risk, together with evidence that exclusive breastfeeding can be successfully supported in HIV-infected women, warrant revision of the present UNICEF, WHO, and UNAIDS infant feeding guidelines.

Vertical transmission of HIV-1 infection

Vertical transmission is the dominant mode of acquisition of infection for HIV infection in children, and about 1600 infants are newly infected each day worldwide. Without interventions the risk of transmission is between 15% and 35%, and associated with maternal disease progression, prematurity, duration of rupture of membranes, length of labour, and vaginal delivery. Breastfeeding approximately doubles the risk of vertical transmission; the additional risk of transmission through breastfeeding is approximately 15-20%, with about one-third of this accounted for by late postnatal transmission after 3 months of age. Current strategies to reduce the risk of transmission include a short course of anti-retroviral therapy, avoidance of breastfeeding and Caesarean section delivery. However, even if interventions late in pregnancy or around the time of delivery are highly effective in preventing perinatal infection, it is likely that as a public health policy they are of interest only if alternatives to breastfeeding are feasible, affordable, safe and available.

Increases in Adult Life Expectancy in Rural South Africa: Valuing the Scale-Up of HIV Treatment

Cost-Benefit of ART In the battle to control HIV, mass antiretroviral treatment (ART) costs

Perinatal Transmission of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 by Pregnant Women with RNA Virus Loads <1000 Copies/mL

500 to

International multicentre pooled analysis of late postnatal mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 infection

900 per person per year. Bor et al. (p. 961) calculated the impact of intensifying ART on the life expectancy of people living in rural KwaZulu Natal. The dates of death were collected from a population of about 100,000 people during 2000–2011: Four years before and 8 years after the scaling up of ART. Life expectancy of adults increased by more than 11 years after ART was expanded, and the economic value of the lifetimes gained were calculated to far exceed the cost of treatment. Tanser et al. (p. 966) followed nearly 17,000 HIV-uninfected individuals in KwaZulu-Natal over an 8-year period. Holding other HIV risk factors constant, individual HIV acquisition risk declined significantly with increasing ART coverage of HIV-infected people. Adult life expectancy has increased by 11 years in rural KwaZulu-Natal since the 2004 public-sector scale-up of HIV treatment. The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is expected to raise adult life expectancy in populations with high HIV prevalence. Using data from a population cohort of over 101,000 individuals in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, we measured changes in adult life expectancy for 2000–2011. In 2003, the year before ART became available in the public-sector health system, adult life expectancy was 49.2 years; by 2011, adult life expectancy had increased to 60.5 years—an 11.3-year gain. Based on standard monetary valuation of life, the survival benefits of ART far outweigh the costs of providing treatment in this community. These gains in adult life expectancy signify the social value of ART and have implications for the investment decisions of individuals, governments, and donors.

Cohort Profile: Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS) and population-based HIV survey

In a collaboration of 7 European and United States prospective studies, 44 cases of vertical human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transmission were identified among 1202 women with RNA virus loads <1000 copies/mL at delivery or at the measurement closest to delivery. For mothers receiving antiretroviral treatment during pregnancy or at the time of delivery (or both), there was a 1.0% transmission rate (8 of 834; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4%-1.9%), compared with 9.8% (36 of 368; 95% CI, 7.0%-13.4%) for untreated mothers (risk ratio, 0.10; 95% CI, 0.05-0.21). In multivariate analysis adjusting for study, transmission was lower with antiretroviral treatment (odds ratio [OR], 0.10; P<.001), cesarean section (OR, 0.30; P=.022), greater birth weight (P=.003), and higher CD4 cell count (P=.039). In 12 of 44 cases, multiple RNA measurements were obtained during pregnancy or at the time of delivery or within 4 months after giving birth; in 10 of the 12 cases, the geometric mean virus load was >500 copies/mL. Perinatal HIV-1 transmission occurs in only 1% of treated women with RNA virus loads <1000 copies/mL and may be almost eliminated with antiretroviral prophylaxis accompanied by suppression of maternal viremia.

Combination antiretroviral therapy and duration of pregnancy.

BACKGROUND An understanding of the risk and timing of mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 in the postnatal period is important for the development of public-health strategies. We aimed to estimate the rate and timing of late postnatal transmission of HIV-1. METHODS We did an international multicentre pooled analysis of individual data from prospective cohort studies of children followed-up from birth born to HIV-1-infected mothers. We enrolled all uninfected children confirmed by HIV-1-DNA PCR, HIV-1 serology, or both. Late postnatal transmission was taken to have occurred if a child later became infected. We calculated duration of follow-up for non-infected children from the time of negative diagnosis to the date of the last laboratory follow-up, or for infected children to the mid-point between the date of last negative and first positive results. We stratified the analysis for breastfeeding. FINDINGS Less than 5% of the 2807 children in four studies from industrialised countries (USA, Switzerland, France, and Europe) were breastfed and no HIV-1 infection was diagnosed. By contrast, late postnatal transmission occurred in 49 (5%) of 902 children in four cohorts from developing countries, in which breastfeeding was the norm (Rwanda [Butare and Kigali], Ivory Coast, Kenya), with an overall estimated risk of 3.2 per 100 child-years of breastfeeding follow-up (95% CI 3.1-3.8), with similar estimates in individual studies (p=0.10). Exact information on timing of infection and duration of breastfeeding was available for 20 of the 49 children with late postnatal transmission. We took transmission to have occurred midway between last negative and first positive HIV-1 tests. If breastfeeding had stopped at age 4 months transmission would have occurred in no infants, and in three if it had stopped at 6 months. INTERPRETATION Risk of late postnatal transmission is consistently shown to be substantial for breastfed children born to HIV-1-positive mothers. This risk should be balanced against the effect of early weaning on infant mortality and morbidity and maternal fertility.

Exposure to antiretroviral therapy in utero or early life: The health of uninfected children born to HIV-infected women

The health and demography of the South African population has been undergoing substantial changes as a result of the rapidly progressing HIV epidemic. Researchers at the University of KwaZulu-Natal and the South African Medical Research Council established The Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies in 1997 funded by a large core grant from The Wellcome Trust, UK. Given the urgent need for high quality longitudinal data with which to monitor these changes, and with which to evaluate interventions to mitigate impact, a demographic surveillance system (DSS) was established in a rural South African population facing a rapid and severe HIV epidemic. 1 The DSS, referred to as the Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), started in 2000. In 2003, population-based HIV testing (also funded by the Wellcome Trust, UK) was started in ACDIS through annual surveys. In this article, we seek to describe the most salient features of ACDIS and the population-based HIV cohort and briefly present some of the most important results to date.