Marie M. Stack

Regional Integration and Trade: Controlling for Varying Degrees of Heterogeneity in the Gravity Model

The proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) in the 1990s prompted a renewal of interest in studying the effect of regional integration on trade. Using a panel dataset of bilateral export flows from 12 EU countries to 20 OECD trading partners over the period 1992–2003, the trade effect of European regional integration, denoted by an EU dummy, is examined across a number of fixed effects (FE) specifications, each of which has been claimed as the correct econometric specification of the gravity model. Typically parsimonious in (time-varying) economic variables and abundant in fixed effects, the FE specifications allow for varying degrees of heterogeneity in the gravity model. Two gravity models are estimated: a gravity model of traditional trade determinants and a gravity model of new trade theory (NTT) determinants. Both gravity models provide reasonable coefficient estimates, although they vary somewhat across the FE specifications for the traditional gravity model. Both gravity models are congruent in suggesting that the coefficient of the EU dummy declines in magnitude and becomes insignificant as an increasing degree of heterogeneity is admitted into the model. This suggests the fundamental importance of the econometric specification when evaluating trade policy effects within a gravity framework.

Regional integration and trade: A panel cointegration approach to estimating the gravity model

Using a panel data set of bilateral export flows from 12 European Union (EU) countries to 20 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) trading partners over the period 1992–2003, a panel cointegration approach to estimating the gravity model is adopted to test for the significance of European regional integration. A comparison of the results indicates that a positive and significant coefficient estimate of the EU dummy variable is found for both the pooled ordinary least squares (POLS) estimator and the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator. The results, however, diverge once fixed effects are admitted into the model. The least squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator suggests a small positive effect of EU integration on trade. In contrast, the dynamic LSDV estimator indicates that regional integration has a larger beneficial effect on trade. The results highlight the fundamental importance of properly accounting for endogeneity when evaluating trade policy effects.

A gravity model of remittance determinants: evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean

ABSTRACT A gravity model of remittance determinants: evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean. Regional Studies. This paper constructs a microeconomic model of the motivation for remittances and uses it to explore the macroeconomic determinants. In addition, a new measure of bilateral remittances is used to estimate a gravity model of remittances for 27 Latin American and Caribbean countries and 18 industrialized countries. The results suggest remittances are motivated by a combination of altruism and self-interest, both of which are encapsulated by economic and non-economic variables.

FDI performance: a stochastic frontier analysis of location and variance determinants

The opening up process of the eastern European countries was marked by greater integration of FDI with their western neighbouring countries. Using the single-step ML approach to stochastic frontier analysis, the location and variance determinants of FDI are estimated using the knowledge capital (KK) model framework. The findings, based on a panel of bilateral FDI stocks from 10 western to 10 eastern European countries over the 1996–2007 period, suggest FDI is determined by both horizontal and vertical motives while the process of liberalization and infrastructural developments significantly reduces the variance of FDI. In using a stochastic frontier specification of the KK model, the efficiency of FDI performance is identified relative to maximum levels. The bilateral efficiency scores suggest a mixed performance, indicating scope to improve the efficiency of FDI.