Marie Maar

Benefits of meeting nutrient reduction targets for the Baltic Sea - a contingent valuation study in the nine coastal states

This paper presents the results of an internationally coordinated contingent valuation study on the benefits of reducing marine eutrophication in the Baltic Sea according to current policy targets. With over 10,500 respondents from the nine coastal states around the sea, we examine public willingness to pay (WTP) for reduced eutrophication and its determinants. There are considerable differences in mean WTP between countries, with Swedes being willing to pay the most and Latvians the least. The aggregate annual WTP is approximately €3600 million. In addition, we find that countries are heterogeneous in terms of the effects of income, attitudes and familiarity on WTP. Income elasticities of WTP are below 1 for all countries, ranging between 0.1 and 0.5. Attitudes and personal experience of eutrophication are important determinants of WTP, but the specific effects differ between countries. The findings can be used in economic analyses for the European Union (EU) Marine Strategy Framework Directive and to justify additional eutrophication reduction measures in the Baltic Sea.

Possible Causes of a Harbour Porpoise Mass Stranding in Danish Waters in 2005

An unprecedented 85 harbour porpoises stranded freshly dead along approximately 100 km of Danish coastline from 7–15 April, 2005. This total is considerably above the mean weekly stranding rate for the whole of Denmark, both for any time of year, 1.23 animals/week (ranging from 0 to 20 during 2003–2008, excluding April 2005), and specifically in April, 0.65 animals/week (0 to 4, same period). Bycatch was established as the cause of death for most of the individuals through typical indications of fisheries interactions, including net markings in the skin and around the flippers, and loss of tail flukes. Local fishermen confirmed unusually large porpoise bycatch in nets set for lumpfish (Cyclopterus lumpus) and the strandings were attributed to an early lumpfish season. However, lumpfish catches for 2005 were not unusual in terms of season onset, peak or total catch, when compared to 2003–2008. Consequently, human activity was combined with environmental factors and the variation in Danish fisheries landings (determined through a principal component analysis) in a two-part statistical model to assess the correlation of these factors with both the presence of fresh strandings and the numbers of strandings on the Danish west coast. The final statistical model (which was forward selected using Akaike information criterion; AIC) indicated that naval presence is correlated with higher rates of porpoise strandings, particularly in combination with certain fisheries, although it is not correlated with the actual presence of strandings. Military vessels from various countries were confirmed in the area from the 7th April, en route to the largest naval exercise in Danish waters to date (Loyal Mariner 2005, 11–28 April). Although sonar usage cannot be confirmed, it is likely that ships were testing various equipment prior to the main exercise. Thus naval activity cannot be ruled out as a possible contributing factor.

Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change.

The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co-mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem-level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long-term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate-ready and ecosystem-level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans.

Grazing impact of Oikopleura dioica and copepods on an autumn plankton community Published in collaboration with the University of Bergen and the Institute of Marine Research, Norway, and the Marine Biological Laboratory, University of Copenhagen, Denmark

Abstract Copepods and appendicularians are major grazers in the pelagic environment. They have different retention efficiencies for prey and may therefore exert a variable grazing pressure on the spectrum of pico- to micro-plankton. We determined clearance rates of both groups at one station during 24 h in the Gullmar fjord, west Sweden, in autumn 1999. Total potential prey biomass ranged from 75 µg C l−1 at the surface to 14 µg C l−1 at 30 m with a dominance of larger dinoflagellates (10–25 µm athecate species and Gymnodinium /Gyrodinium sp.) and the pennate diatom Pseudo-nitzschia sp. Grazer biomass was dominated by copepods (Acartia clausi, Paracalanus parvus) and appendicularians (Oikopleura dioica). O. dioica showed non-selective clearance rates of 0.7–1.8 ml µg C−1 h−1 on most diatoms, flagellates and ciliates, whereas Pseudo-nitzschia sp. and dinoflagellates and ciliates >25 µm were not removed by O. dioica. Appendicularian grazing impact was 0.06% d−1 on the phytoplankton and 0.4% d−1 on bacterial biomass. Despite a seven-fold higher biomass, the grazing impact of copepods on phytoplankton biomass was only 0.28% d−1 indicating that O. dioica had a proportionally greater impact and, in contrast to copepods, also utilised bacteria. The low observed grazing impact was due to a low grazer biomass and a prey community largely unavailable to the investigated grazers.

The Baltic Sea Atlantis: An integrated end-to-end modelling framework evaluating ecosystem-wide effects of human-induced pressures

Achieving good environmental status in the Baltic Sea region requires decision support tools which are based on scientific knowledge across multiple disciplines. Such tools should integrate the complexity of the ecosystem and enable exploration of different natural and anthropogenic pressures such as climate change, eutrophication and fishing pressures in order to compare alternative management strategies. We present a new framework, with a Baltic implementation of the spatially-explicit end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model linked to two external models, to explore the different pressures on the marine ecosystem. The HBM-ERGOM initializes the Atlantis model with high-resolution physical-chemical-biological and hydrodynamic information while the FISHRENT model analyses the fisheries economics of the output of commercial fish biomass for the Atlantis terminal projection year. The Baltic Atlantis model composes 29 sub-areas, 9 vertical layers and 30 biological functional groups. The balanced calibration provides realistic levels of biomass for, among others, known stock sizes of top predators and of key fish species. Furthermore, it gives realistic levels of phytoplankton biomass and shows reasonable diet compositions and geographical distribution patterns for the functional groups. By simulating several scenarios of nutrient load reductions on the ecosystem and testing sensitivity to different fishing pressures, we show that the model is sensitive to those changes and capable of evaluating the impacts on different trophic levels, fish stocks, and fisheries associated with changed benthic oxygen conditions. We conclude that the Baltic Atlantis forms an initial basis for strategic management evaluation suited for conducting medium to long term ecosystem assessments which are of importance for a number of pan-Baltic stakeholders in relation to anthropogenic pressures such as eutrophication, climate change and fishing pressure, as well as changed biological interactions between functional groups.