Marie Nevoux

Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds

1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earths climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics is feasible for different populations using a common methodological framework. Our approach was limited to single populations and have neglected population settlement in new favourable habitats or changes in inter-specific relations as a potential response to future climate change. Predictions may be enhanced by merging demographic population models and climatic envelope models.

Bet‐hedging response to environmental variability, an intraspecific comparison

A major challenge in ecology is to understand the impact of increased environmental variability on populations and ecosystems. To maximize their fitness in a variable environment, life history theory states that individuals should favor a bet-hedging strategy, involving a reduction of annual breeding performance and an increase in adult survival so that reproduction can be attempted over more years. As a result, evolution toward longer life span is expected to reduce the deleterious effects of extra variability on population growth, and consequently on the trait contributing the most to it (e.g., adult survival in long-lived species). To investigate this, we compared the life histories of two Black-browed Albatross (Thalassarche melanophrys) populations breeding at South Georgia (Atlantic Ocean) and Kerguelen (Indian Ocean), the former in an environment nearly three times more variable climatically (e.g., in sea surface temperature) than the latter. As predicted, individuals from South Georgia (in the more variable environment) showed significantly higher annual adult survival (0.959, SE = 0.003) but lower annual reproductive success (0.285 chick per pair, SE = 0.039) than birds from Kerguelen (survival = 0.925, SE = 0.004; breeding success = 0.694, SE = 0.027). In both populations, climatic conditions affected the breeding success and the survival of inexperienced breeders, whereas the survival of experienced breeders was unaffected. The strength of the climatic impact on survival of inexperienced breeders was very similar between the two populations, but the effect on breeding success was positively related to environmental variability. These results provide rare and compelling evidence to support bet-hedging underlying changes in life history traits as an adaptive response to environmental variability.

Nonlinear impact of climate on survival in a migratory white stork population.

1. There is growing evidence that ongoing climate change affects populations and species. Physiological limitation and phenotypic plasticity suggest nonlinear response of vital rates to climatic parameters, the intensity of environmental impact might be more pronounced while the frequency of extreme events increases. However, a poor understanding of these patterns presently hampers our predictive capabilities. 2. A recent climatic shift in the Sahel, from droughty to less severe condition, offers a good opportunity to test for an influence of the climatic regime on the response of organisms to their environment. Using a long-term capture-mark-recapture data set on a white stork (Ciconia ciconia) population wintering in Sahel, we investigated potential change in the impact of environmental conditions on survival and recruitment probabilities between 1981 and 2003. 3. We observed a decrease in the strength of the link between survival and Sahel rainfall during the last decade, down to a nondetectable level. Whether Sahel climate was found to affect the survival of storks under droughty conditions, individuals did not seem to respond to climatic variation when precipitation was more abundant. 4. This result gives evidence to a nonlinear response of a migrant bird to wintering environment. Present climate seems to fluctuate within a range of condition providing enough resources to maximize storks survival. It suggests that whereas inter-annual variability impacted individuals, pluri-annual average condition affected the intensity of this impact. Such pattern may be more widespread than thought, and its modelling will be crucial to predict the impact of future climate change on population dynamics.

Respective impact of climate and fisheries on the growth of an albatross population

Climate and human activities such as fisheries impact many animal species. However, the demographic processes through which the population vital rates are affected, and the sensitivity of their growth rates, are poorly understood. The Black-browed Albatross, Thalassarche melanophrys, is a long-lived threatened seabird species. Previous studies have shown that the adult survival and breeding success of the population breeding at Kerguelen are affected by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) during both the breeding and the nonbreeding season, and by tuna long-lining in Tasmanian waters through bycatch mortality. Here, using long-term demographic data from a Black-browed Albatross colony monitored for 26 years at Kerguelen, we estimate all demographic parameters from early to adult stages of the life cycle in order to build a fully parameterized population model and predict population growth rates under several scenarios of climate and fishing effort. The observed population growth rate (1.003) indicates that the population was stable or slightly increasing, and our population model gives a close estimate of 1.008. Population growth rate is more sensitive to survival of experienced breeders and accordingly to a change in SSTA during incubation and to tuna long-lining effort (both affecting survival of experienced breeders) than to other demographic parameters/environmental covariates. The population stability results from multiple factors and complex relationships between demographic parameters and environmental conditions, and therefore population equilibrium is precarious. If fishing effort remains stable at its current level and positive SSTA increase, or inversely if fishing effort decreases and SSTA remain similar to present values, then the population would increase. However, if fishing effort increases by 20% (i.e., to 40 million hooks) on the wintering grounds, without any change in SSTA, then the population would decrease at 0.9% per year. If fishing effort stops, the population would increase at 3.5% per year, suggesting that bycatch mortality probably currently limits the Black-browed Albatross population at Kerguelen. Our study shows how this type of model could be useful to predict trajectories of top predator populations, and eventually lower trophic web levels, in relation to climatic projections and future human activities. We highlight the need to reinforce mitigation measures.

Long- and short-term influence of environment on recruitment in a species with highly delayed maturity

Short-term effects of environmental perturbations on various life history traits are reasonably well documented in birds and mammals. But, in the present context of global climate change, there is a need to consider potential long-term effects of natal conditions to better understand and predict the consequences of these changes on population dynamics. The environmental conditions affecting offspring during their early development may determine their lifetime reproductive performance, and therefore the number of recruits produced by a cohort. In this study, we attempted to link recruitment to natal and recent (previous year) conditions in the long-lived black-browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophrys) at Kerguelen Islands. The environmental variability was described using both climatic variables over breeding (sea surface temperature anomaly) and non-breeding grounds (Southern Oscillation index), and variables related to the colony (breeding success and colony size). Immature survival was linked to the breeding success of the colony in the year of birth, which was expected to reflect the average seasonal parental investment. At the cohort level, this initial mortality event may act as a selective filter shaping the number, and presumably the quality (breeding frequency, breeding success probability), of the individuals that recruit into the breeding population. The decision to start breeding was strongly structured by the age of the individuals and adjusted according to recent conditions. An effect of natal conditions was not detected on this parameter, supporting the selection hypothesis. Recruitment, as a whole, was thus influenced by a combination of long- and short-term environmental impacts. Our results highlight the complexity of the influence of environmental factors on such long-lived species, due to the time-lag (associated with a delayed maturity) between the impact of natal conditions on individuals and their repercussion on the breeding population.

The short- and long-term fitness consequences of natal dispersal in a wild bird population

Dispersal is a key process in population and evolutionary ecology. Individual decisions are affected by fitness consequences of dispersal, but these are difficult to measure in wild populations. A long-term dataset on a geographically closed bird population, the Mauritius kestrel, offers a rare opportunity to explore fitness consequences. Females dispersed further when the availability of local breeding sites was limited, whereas male dispersal correlated with phenotypic traits. Female but not male fitness was lower when they dispersed longer distances compared to settling close to home. These results suggest a cost of dispersal in females. We found evidence of both short- and long-term fitness consequences of natal dispersal in females, including reduced fecundity in early life and more rapid aging in later life. Taken together, our results indicate that dispersal in early life might shape life history strategies in wild populations.

Population regulation of territorial species: both site dependence and interference mechanisms matter

Spatial patterns of site occupancy are commonly driven by habitat heterogeneity and are thought to shape population dynamics through a site-dependent regulatory mechanism. When examining this, however, most studies have only focused on a single vital rate (reproduction), and little is known about how space effectively contributes to the regulation of population dynamics. We investigated the underlying mechanisms driving density-dependent processes in vital rates in a Mauritius kestrel population where almost every individual was monitored. Different mechanisms acted on different vital rates, with breeding success regulated by site dependence (differential use of space) and juvenile survival by interference (density-dependent competition for resources). Although territorial species are frequently assumed to be regulated through site dependence, we show that interference was the key regulatory mechanism in this population. Our integrated approach demonstrates that the presence of spatial processes regarding one trait does not mean that they necessarily play an important role in regulating population growth, and demonstrates the complexity of the regulatory process.

Relationships between sea ice concentration, sea surface temperature and demographic traits of thin-billed prions

Understanding the effects of environmental variations on ecosystems is a major topic in ecology. In this study, we estimated demographic parameters of a seabird population, the thin-billed prion (Pachyptila belcheri) at Kerguelen Islands, and then tested for relationships with inter-annual variations of climatic indices, using long-term capture–recapture data. The annual adult survival probability was 0.825±0.009 and the breeding success was 0.519±0.090. Sea surface temperature anomalies were negatively related with breeding success. By contrast, winter sea ice concentration in the Antarctic seasonal ice zone seemed to negatively influence adult survival. This suggests a connection between sub-Antarctic and Antarctic ecosystems. The actual context of large climatic changes in the Austral Ocean seems to explain a large part of the decreasing trends observed for both the breeding success and the adult survival. Thus, a decrease of the population size of thin-billed prions at Kerguelen could be strongly suspected in the near future.

Combined Spatio-Temporal Impacts of Climate and Longline Fisheries on the Survival of a Trans-Equatorial Marine Migrant

Predicting the impact of human activities and their derivable consequences, such as global warming or direct wildlife mortality, is increasingly relevant in our changing world. Due to their particular life history traits, long-lived migrants are amongst the most endangered and sensitive group of animals to these harming effects. Our ability to identify and quantify such anthropogenic threats in both breeding and wintering grounds is, therefore, of key importance in the field of conservation biology. Using long-term capture-recapture data (34 years, 4557 individuals) and year-round tracking data (4 years, 100 individuals) of a trans-equatorial migrant, the Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris diomedea), we investigated the impact of longline fisheries and climatic variables in both breeding and wintering areas on the most important demographic trait of this seabird, i.e. adult survival. Annual adult survival probability was estimated at 0.914±0.022 on average, declining throughout 1978–1999 but recovering during the last decade (2005–2011). Our results suggest that both the incidental bycatch associated with longline fisheries and high sea surface temperatures (indirectly linked to food availability; SST) increased mortality rates during the long breeding season (March-October). Shearwater survival was also negatively affected during the short non-breeding season (December-February) by positive episodes of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Indirect negative effects of climate at both breeding (SST) and wintering grounds (SOI) had a greater impact on survival than longliner activity, and indeed these climatic factors are those which are expected to present more unfavourable trends in the future. Our work underlines the importance of considering both breeding and wintering habitats as well as precise schedules/phenology when assessing the global role of the local impacts on the dynamics of migratory species.

Meteorological conditions influence short‐term survival and dispersal in a reinforced bird population

A high immediate mortality rate of released animals is an important cause of translocation failure (‘release cost’). Post-release dispersal (i.e. the movements from the release site to the first breeding site) has recently been identified as another source of local translocation failure. In spite of their potential effects on conservation program outcomes, little is known about the quantitative effects of these two sources of translocation failure and their interactions with environmental factors and management designs.[br/] Based on long-term monitoring data of captive-bred North African houbara bustards Chlamydotis undulata undulata (hereafter, houbara) over large spatial scales, we investigated the relative effects of release (e.g. release group size, period of release), individual (e.g. sex and body condition) and meteorological (e.g. temperature and rainfall) conditions on post-release survival (n = 957 individuals) and dispersal (n = 436 individuals).[br/] We found that (i) rainfall and ambient air temperature had, respectively, a negative and a positive effect on houbara post-release dispersal distance; (ii) in interaction with the release period, harsh meteorological conditions had negative impact on the survival of houbara; (iii) density-dependent processes influenced the pattern of departure from the release site; and (iv) post-release dispersal distance was male-biased, as natal dispersal of wild birds (although the dispersal patterns and movements may be influenced by different processes in captive-bred and in wild birds).[br/] Synthesis and applications. Our results demonstrate that post-release dispersal and mortality costs in translocated species may be mediated by meteorological factors, which in turn can be buffered by the release method. As the consequences of translocation programs on population dynamics depend primarily upon release costs and colonization process, we suggest that their potential interactions with meteorological conditions must be carefully addressed in future programs (i) through monitoring of short-term post-release mortality to understand its link with environmental conditions, (ii) by carefully choosing the season of release to minimize exposition of inexperienced individuals to harsh conditions and (iii) by generalizing the use of long-term weather forecast to adapt release effort and staggering releases over several years to buffer meteorological effects.