Marilla Lucero

Global burden of respiratory infections due to seasonal influenza in young children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND The global burden of disease attributable to seasonal influenza virus in children is unknown. We aimed to estimate the global incidence of and mortality from lower respiratory infections associated with influenza in children younger than 5 years. METHODS We estimated the incidence of influenza episodes, influenza-associated acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI), and influenza-associated severe ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age, with data from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Oct 31, 2010, and 16 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these incidence estimates to global population estimates for 2008 to calculate estimates for that year. We estimated possible bounds for influenza-associated ALRI mortality by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from hospital-based reports and identifying studies with population-based data for influenza seasonality and monthly ALRI mortality. FINDINGS We identified 43 suitable studies, with data for around 8 million children. We estimated that, in 2008, 90 million (95% CI 49-162 million) new cases of influenza (data from nine studies), 20 million (13-32 million) cases of influenza-associated ALRI (13% of all cases of paediatric ALRI; data from six studies), and 1 million (1-2 million) cases of influenza-associated severe ALRI (7% of cases of all severe paediatric ALRI; data from 39 studies) occurred worldwide in children younger than 5 years. We estimated there were 28,000-111,500 deaths in children younger than 5 years attributable to influenza-associated ALRI in 2008, with 99% of these deaths occurring in developing countries. Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any one setting. INTERPRETATION Influenza is a common pathogen identified in children with ALRI and results in a substantial burden on health services worldwide. Sufficient data to precisely estimate the role of influenza in childhood mortality from ALRI are not available. FUNDING WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Standardized interpretation of paediatric chest radiographs for the diagnosis of pneumonia in epidemiological studies

BACKGROUND Although radiological pneumonia is used as an outcome measure in epidemiological studies, there is considerable variability in the interpretation of chest radiographs. A standardized method for identifying radiological pneumonia would facilitate comparison of the results of vaccine trials and epidemiological studies of pneumonia. METHODS A WHO working group developed definitions for radiological pneumonia. Inter-observer variability in categorizing a set of 222 chest radiographic images was measured by comparing the readings made by 20 radiologists and clinicians with a reference reading. Intra-observer variability was measured by comparing the initial readings of a randomly chosen subset of 100 radiographs with repeat readings made 8-30 days later. FINDINGS Of the 222 images, 208 were considered interpretable. The reference reading categorized 43% of these images as showing alveolar consolidation or pleural effusion (primary end-point pneumonia); the proportion thus categorized by each of the 20 readers ranged from 8% to 61%. Using the reference reading as the gold standard, 14 of the 20 readers had sensitivity and specificity of > 0.70 in identifying primary end-point pneumonia; 13 out of 20 readers had a kappa index of > 0.6 compared with the reference reading. For the 92 radiographs deemed to be interpretable among the 100 images used for intra-observer variability, 19 out of 20 readers had a kappa index of > 0.6. CONCLUSION Using standardized definitions and training, it is possible to achieve agreement in identifying radiological pneumonia, thus facilitating the comparison of results of epidemiological studies that use radiological pneumonia as an outcome.

Global and regional burden of hospital admissions for severe acute lower respiratory infections in young children in 2010: a systematic analysis.

Summary Background The annual number of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to severe acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in young children worldwide is unknown. We aimed to estimate the incidence of admissions and deaths for such infections in children younger than 5 years in 2010. Methods We estimated the incidence of admissions for severe and very severe ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age and region, with data from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1990, and March 31, 2012, and from 28 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these incidence estimates to population estimates for 2010, to calculate the global and regional burden in children admitted with severe ALRI in that year. We estimated in-hospital mortality due to severe and very severe ALRI by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from hospital-based studies. Findings We identified 89 eligible studies and estimated that in 2010, 11·9 million (95% CI 10·3–13·9 million) episodes of severe and 3·0 million (2·1–4·2 million) episodes of very severe ALRI resulted in hospital admissions in young children worldwide. Incidence was higher in boys than in girls, the sex disparity being greatest in South Asian studies. On the basis of data from 37 hospital studies reporting case fatality ratios for severe ALRI, we estimated that roughly 265 000 (95% CI 160 000–450 000) in-hospital deaths took place in young children, with 99% of these deaths in developing countries. Therefore, the data suggest that although 62% of children with severe ALRI are treated in hospitals, 81% of deaths happen outside hospitals. Interpretation Severe ALRI is a substantial burden on health services worldwide and a major cause of hospital referral and admission in young children. Improved hospital access and reduced inequities, such as those related to sex and rural status, could substantially decrease mortality related to such infection. Community-based management of severe disease could be an important complementary strategy to reduce pneumonia mortality and health inequities. Funding WHO.

Efficacy of an 11-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against radiologically confirmed pneumonia among children less than 2 years of age in the Philippines: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Background: Pneumococcus is a leading cause of childhood pneumonia worldwide. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) have demonstrated efficacy against childhood invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumonia in the United States and Africa. No information is available from Asia on the impact of PCV on childhood pneumonia. Methods: We conducted a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial in Bohol, the Philippines (ISRCTN 62323832). Children 6 weeks to <6 months of age were randomly allocated to receive 3 doses of either an 11-valent PCV (11PCV, sanofi pasteur, Lyon, France) or a saline placebo, with a minimum interval of 4 weeks between doses to determine vaccine efficacy (VE) against the primary outcome of a child experiencing first episode of community-acquired radiologically defined pneumonia in the first 2 years of life. Secondary end points were clinical pneumonia, IPD, safety, and immunogenicity. Results: Twelve thousand one hundred ninety-one children were enrolled. By per protocol (PP) analysis, 93 of 6013 fully vaccinated 11PCV recipient children had a first episode of radiologic pneumonia compared with 120 of 6018 placebo recipients. VE against radiologically defined pneumonia for the PP cohort of children 3 to 23 months old was 22.9% (95% CI: −1.1, 41.2; P = 0.06), for the prespecified subgroups of children 3 to 11 months of age, 34.0% (95% CI: 4.8, 54.3; P = 0.02), and of those 12 to 23 months old, 2.7% (95% CI: −43.5, 34.0; P = 0.88). By intent-to-treat (ITT) analysis, 119 of 6097 11PCV recipient children had an episode of radiologic pneumonia compared with 141 of 6094 placebo recipients. VE against radiologic pneumonia for the ITT cohort of children <2 years old was 16.0% (95% CI −7.3, 34.2; P = 0.16), for a subgroup of children <12 months of age, 19.8% (95% CI: −8.8, 40.8; P = 0.15). VE against clinical pneumonia by PP was not significant (VE 0.1%; 95% CI −9.4, 8.7; P = 0.99). IPD was rare: only 3 cases of IPD due to vaccine serotypes were observed during the study. 11PCV was immunogenic and well tolerated. Among 11PCV recipients, a small excess of serious adverse respiratory events was observed in the first 28 days after the first and second dose of vaccine, and of nonrespiratory events after the first dose. An excess of pneumonia episodes in 11PCV recipients in the month following the second dose of vaccination was the principal reason for lower VE by ITT analysis than by PP analysis. Conclusions: In PP analysis, a 22.9% reduction of community-acquired radiologically confirmed pneumonia in children younger than 2 years of age in the 11-valent tetanus-diphtheria toxoid-conjugated PCV vaccinated group was observed; a reduction similar as observed in other PCV trials. We could not demonstrate any VE against clinical pneumonia. Our finding confirms for the first time that in a low-income, low-mortality developing country in Asia, at least one-fifth of radiologically confirmed pneumonia is caused by pneumococcus, and thus preventable by PCV. Whether PCV should be included in national program in such settings, however, depends on careful country specific disease burden measurement and cost-effectiveness calculation.

Population Health Metrics Research Consortium gold standard verbal autopsy validation study: design, implementation, and development of analysis datasets

BackgroundVerbal autopsy methods are critically important for evaluating the leading causes of death in populations without adequate vital registration systems. With a myriad of analytical and data collection approaches, it is essential to create a high quality validation dataset from different populations to evaluate comparative method performance and make recommendations for future verbal autopsy implementation. This study was undertaken to compile a set of strictly defined gold standard deaths for which verbal autopsies were collected to validate the accuracy of different methods of verbal autopsy cause of death assignment.MethodsData collection was implemented in six sites in four countries: Andhra Pradesh, India; Bohol, Philippines; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Mexico City, Mexico; Pemba Island, Tanzania; and Uttar Pradesh, India. The Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) developed stringent diagnostic criteria including laboratory, pathology, and medical imaging findings to identify gold standard deaths in health facilities as well as an enhanced verbal autopsy instrument based on World Health Organization (WHO) standards. A cause list was constructed based on the WHO Global Burden of Disease estimates of the leading causes of death, potential to identify unique signs and symptoms, and the likely existence of sufficient medical technology to ascertain gold standard cases. Blinded verbal autopsies were collected on all gold standard deaths.ResultsOver 12,000 verbal autopsies on deaths with gold standard diagnoses were collected (7,836 adults, 2,075 children, 1,629 neonates, and 1,002 stillbirths). Difficulties in finding sufficient cases to meet gold standard criteria as well as problems with misclassification for certain causes meant that the target list of causes for analysis was reduced to 34 for adults, 21 for children, and 10 for neonates, excluding stillbirths. To ensure strict independence for the validation of methods and assessment of comparative performance, 500 test-train datasets were created from the universe of cases, covering a range of cause-specific compositions.ConclusionsThis unique, robust validation dataset will allow scholars to evaluate the performance of different verbal autopsy analytic methods as well as instrument design. This dataset can be used to inform the implementation of verbal autopsies to more reliably ascertain cause of death in national health information systems.

Using verbal autopsy to measure causes of death: the comparative performance of existing methods

BackgroundMonitoring progress with disease and injury reduction in many populations will require widespread use of verbal autopsy (VA). Multiple methods have been developed for assigning cause of death from a VA but their application is restricted by uncertainty about their reliability.MethodsWe investigated the validity of five automated VA methods for assigning cause of death: InterVA-4, Random Forest (RF), Simplified Symptom Pattern (SSP), Tariff method (Tariff), and King-Lu (KL), in addition to physician review of VA forms (PCVA), based on 12,535 cases from diverse populations for which the true cause of death had been reliably established. For adults, children, neonates and stillbirths, performance was assessed separately for individuals using sensitivity, specificity, Kappa, and chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and for populations using cause specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, with and without additional diagnostic information from prior contact with health services. A total of 500 train-test splits were used to ensure that results are robust to variation in the underlying cause of death distribution.ResultsThree automated diagnostic methods, Tariff, SSP, and RF, but not InterVA-4, performed better than physician review in all age groups, study sites, and for the majority of causes of death studied. For adults, CSMF accuracy ranged from 0.764 to 0.770, compared with 0.680 for PCVA and 0.625 for InterVA; CCC varied from 49.2% to 54.1%, compared with 42.2% for PCVA, and 23.8% for InterVA. For children, CSMF accuracy was 0.783 for Tariff, 0.678 for PCVA, and 0.520 for InterVA; CCC was 52.5% for Tariff, 44.5% for PCVA, and 30.3% for InterVA. For neonates, CSMF accuracy was 0.817 for Tariff, 0.719 for PCVA, and 0.629 for InterVA; CCC varied from 47.3% to 50.3% for the three automated methods, 29.3% for PCVA, and 19.4% for InterVA. The method with the highest sensitivity for a specific cause varied by cause.ConclusionsPhysician review of verbal autopsy questionnaires is less accurate than automated methods in determining both individual and population causes of death. Overall, Tariff performs as well or better than other methods and should be widely applied in routine mortality surveillance systems with poor cause of death certification practices.

Serotype-specific hyporesponsiveness to pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in infants carrying pneumococcus at the time of vaccination

OBJECTIVE To determine whether pneumococcal carriage at the time of 11-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-11) administration interferes with immune response in infants. STUDY DESIGN A total of 1111 Filipino infants recruited into an immunogenicity and carriage study, nested in an efficacy trial, received PCV-11 or saline solution placebo at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age. Antibody concentrations to the most frequently carried vaccine serotypes 6B, 19F, and 23F were measured by enzyme immunoassay from sera obtained at 18 weeks and 9 months of age. Serotype-specific antibody concentration was compared between groups of children among PCV-11 recipients stratified according to their carriage status at 6 weeks of age. RESULTS Antibody concentrations to 6B, 19F, and 23F were significantly lower at 18 weeks and 9 months of age among children who were carriers of the specific serotype at 6 weeks of age than among non-carriers of the serotype. The hyporesponsiveness was specific to the carried serotype. The specific antibody concentrations induced by PCV-11 among carriers did not differ significantly from those in placebo recipients, whereas the differences were highly significant among noncarriers. CONCLUSIONS Pneumococcal carriage, prevalent in Filipino infants, interferes with serotype-specific immune response to primary series of PCV and has potential implications for immunization programs.

Clinical case review: A method to improve identification of true clinical and radiographic pneumonia in children meeting the World Health Organization definition for pneumonia

BackgroundThe World Health Organizations (WHO) case definition for childhood pneumonia, composed of simple clinical signs of cough, difficult breathing and fast breathing, is widely used in resource poor settings to guide management of acute respiratory infections. The definition is also commonly used as an entry criteria or endpoint in different intervention and disease burden studies.MethodsA group of paediatricians conducted a retrospective review of clinical and laboratory data including C-reactive protein concentration and chest radiograph findings among Filipino children hospitalised in the Bohol Regional Hospital who were enrolled in a pneumococcal vaccine efficacy study and had an episode of respiratory disease fulfilling the WHO case definition for clinical pneumonia. Our aim was to evaluate which disease entities the WHO definition actually captures and what is the probable aetiology of respiratory infections among these episodes diagnosed in this population.ResultsAmong the 12,194 children enrolled to the vaccine study we recorded 1,195 disease episodes leading to hospitalisation which fulfilled the WHO criteria for pneumonia. In total, 34% of these episodes showed radiographic evidence of pneumonia and 11% were classified as definitive or probable bacterial pneumonia. Over 95% of episodes of WHO-defined severe pneumonia (with chest indrawing) had an acute lower respiratory infection as final diagnosis whereas 34% of those with non-severe clinical pneumonia had gastroenteritis or other non-respiratory infection as main cause of hospitalisation.ConclusionThe WHO definition for severe pneumonia shows high specificity for acute lower respiratory infection and provides a tool to compare the total burden of lower respiratory infections in different settings.Trial registrationISRCTN62323832

Antibody response to an eleven valent diphtheria- and tetanus-conjugated pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Filipino infants

Background. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines are intended to provide effective protection against pneumococcal infections, but very little information on antibody responses in infants living in countries with high pneumococcal disease burden exists. Methods. In this study 50 healthy Filipino infants were enrolled at a village health center in Cabuyao to receive 11-valent diphtheria- and tetanus-conjugated pneumococcal vaccine at 6, 10 and 14 weeks of age (primary series) simultaneously with diphtheria-tetanus-whole cell pertussis/polyribosylribitol phosphate conjugated to tetanus toxoid, hepatitis B virus and oral poliovirus vaccines and at 9 months of age (booster dose) simultaneously with measles vaccine. The alum-adjuvanted study vaccine contained pneumococcal polysaccharide of serotypes 1, 4, 5, 7F, 9V, 19F and 23F conjugated to tetanus protein and pneumococcal polysaccharide of serotypes 3, 6B, 14 and 18C conjugated to diphtheria toxoid. Serum samples for enzyme immunoassay analyses were collected at 6, 10 and 14 weeks and 9 and 10 months of age. Results. Very high geometric mean antibody concentrations (GMCs) against most pneumococcal serotypes were observed after the first three doses of vaccine (range, serotype 23F, 3.89 &mgr;g/ml to serotype 4, 23.41 &mgr;g/ml) with the exception of serotype 6B and 14, with GMCs of 1.12 and 2.18 &mgr;g/ml, respectively. The fourth dose increased the GMCs against most serotypes (range, serotype 14, 1.65 to serotype 19F, 33.43 &mgr;g/ml). The maternally derived antibodies did not decrease the response to the vaccine. Conclusions. This first pneumococcal conjugate vaccine study in Asia confirms that the 11-valent diphtheria- and tetanus-conjugated pneumococcal vaccine is highly immunogenic in Filipino infants. The GMCs against most pneumococcal serotypes were substantially higher than described with the same or other pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in other populations.

Functional Antibodies Elicited by an 11-Valent Diphtheria-Tetanus Toxoid-Conjugated Pneumococcal Vaccine

The aluminium-adjuvanted 11-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine containing polysaccharides 1, 4, 5, 7F, 9V, 19F, and 23F (coupled to tetanus protein) and polysaccharides 3, 6B, 14, and 18C (coupled to diphtheria toxoid) elicits high antibody concentrations in Filipino infants when given at ages 6, 10, and 14 weeks and 9 months simultaneously with the national vaccination program. We evaluated functional activity of these antibodies by using a viable cell opsonophagocytic assay (OPA). The OPA titers correlated (r=0.53-0.74) with the respective antibody concentrations. The geometric mean OPA titers after 3 vaccine doses were 276.9 (serotype 4), 12.3 (serotype 6B), 46.0 (serotype 14), 119.3 (serotype 19F), and 206.3 (serotype 23F). The functionality of antibodies increased after the fourth dose of vaccine (i.e., the concentration required for in vitro killing of pneumococci decreased). Both the quantity and quality of antibodies are important in the evaluation of immunogenicity of pneumococcal vaccines.