Marina Costa Lobo

PARTIES AND LEADER EFFECTS Impact of Leaders in the Vote for Different Types of Parties

In this article, I analyse whether the electorate of different party types attributes different degrees of importance to leaders, as suggested by a recent party typology. Based on expert advice, 15 parties in six democracies were assigned to the following party types: class-mass, denominational and catch-all. Individual level data are used to determine the relative importance of leader effects for voters of different types of party vis-a-vis other explanatory factors. The article shows that there are indeed statistically significant differences in the importance of leader effects concerning mass-based parties (class-mass and denominational) and catch-all parties. Electors of mass-based parties are less sensitive to leaders than electors of catch-all parties at the ballot box. This is in accordance with previous studies in the party literature regarding the emphasis placed by different parties on the leader during election campaigns, and is an introduction to the nature of the party as a contextual factor ...In this article, I analyse whether the electorate of different party types attributes different degrees of importance to leaders, as suggested by a recent party typology. Based on expert advice, 15 parties in six democracies were assigned to the following party types: class-mass, denominational and catch-all. Individual level data are used to determine the relative importance of leader effects for voters of different types of party vis-à-vis other explanatory factors. The article shows that there are indeed statistically significant differences in the importance of leader effects concerning mass-based parties (class-mass and denominational) and catch-all parties. Electors of mass-based parties are less sensitive to leaders than electors of catch-all parties at the ballot box. This is in accordance with previous studies in the party literature regarding the emphasis placed by different parties on the leader during election campaigns, and is an introduction to the nature of the party as a contextual factor of voting behaviour.

Portuguese Attitudes Towards EU Membership: Social and Political Perspectives

Drawing on extensive sets of Eurobarometer data, this contribution presents and analyses Portuguese attitudes towards European integration. The data show that the Portuguese electorate continues to use political parties in order to make sense of complex reality, adopting their chosen partys stance on European integration. This leads to another conclusion relating to the relationship between the EU and the public in general: national parties seem to be the missing link for an improvement in the relationship between the EU as a political institution and the public in general.Abstract Drawing on extensive sets of Eurobarometer data, this contribution presents and analyses Portuguese attitudes towards European integration. The data show that the Portuguese electorate continues to use political parties in order to make sense of complex reality, adopting their chosen partys stance on European integration. This leads to another conclusion relating to the relationship between the EU and the public in general: national parties seem to be the missing link for an improvement in the relationship between the EU as a political institution and the public in general.

The Role of Political Parties in Portuguese Democratic Consolidation

In this research note, I analyse the evolution of the Portuguese party system from a position of relative polarization to todays majoritarian system. Using indicators for net volatility and degree of fragmentation in the party system, I discuss three factors in this evolution: the importance of the appearance of a new party, the PRD; the decline of small parties, in part due to their failure to innovate; and the dynamics of presidential elections. I show that political parties were at the centre of the stabilization of the party system, and thus the consolidation of democracy. These developments were also conditioned by the semipresidential nature of the regime. Successive presidential elections have encouraged parties in the same bloc to join forces, albeit inconsistently. Future research on this topic should take into account the interplay between the Portuguese party system and the dynamics of presidential elections.

Anchoring the Portuguese Voter: Panel Dynamics in a Newer Electorate

While Portuguese democracy is no longer so new, its national postelection surveys are, with the first in 2002. On the vital question of what provides the voter a social-psychological anchor, initial evidence gave the nod to party identification over ideological identification. However, party identification was poorly measured, data were cross-sectional, and the models single equation. Fortunately, panel studies are now available for the 2005 legislative and the 2006 presidential elections. Estimating dynamic, multi-equation models with two-stage, instrumental variable regression procedures establishes the preeminence of ideologically driven voting. Furthermore, ideological identification appears composed of a unique pre-democratic component, in addition to the more usual social, moral, and economic elements.

The Portuguese 2005 legislative election: Return to the left

The 2005 legislative elections were a momentous event in Portuguese democracy. This was so in almost every respect, namely the political, economic and social context in which they were held and also due to the results they produced. Concerning results, the Socialist party obtained its first absolute majority of seats in Parliament, and its largest percentage of the vote in legislative elections; electoral turnout increased for the first time since the mid-1980s; the Right, and especially the largest party in that bloc suffered a heavy defeat; finally, taken together, the left-wing parties won their best result since democratic elections were first held in 1974. Regarding the context, it is possible to argue that, at least since 1999, Portugal has been undergoing a period of political instability. This has been fuelled by and at the same time has worsened the economic and social context. This report will begin by presenting briefly the context within which the elections were held, as well as the campaign and party programmes. Finally, the electoral results, as well as the party system format, the type of government and the corresponding type of democratic model, will be discussed. In 2002, a right-wing coalition government between the centre-right PSD (Partido Social Democrata) and the conservative CDS-PP (Centro Democrático Social-Partido Popular) with PSD leader Durão Barroso as Prime Minister came to power, following the resignation of the Socialist Prime Minister António Guterres. The new government inherited a fiscal crisis coupled with an economic recession. In 2001 Portugal had been the first country to break the EU’s Stability Pact, with a budget deficit above 3% of GDP (3.9%). To avoid the EU Commission’s fine, a series of painful budgetary cuts were implemented. Despite these it was necessary to resort to last minute sale of state assets in order to bring the budget deficit down to 3% in successive years. Moreover, these fiscal cuts were countercyclical in that the economy was entering a recession. In fact, GDP growth in 2001 had been 1% and was71% in 2002 and72% in 2003 (Eurostat). With negative

The Clarity of Policy Alternatives, Left–Right and the European Parliament Vote in 2004

Abstract The importance of the left–right divide for party choice is well established, both for legislative and European Parliament (EP) elections. However, the conditions under which left–right self‐placement becomes more or less important in explaining the vote in both legislative and EP elections are clearly understudied. The article uses the 2004 EP elections as a laboratory to understand if there are indeed systematic differences between political systems’ characteristics that might explain variation in terms of the strength of the relationship between left–right self‐placement and the vote. Using the survey data from the European Election Study 2004 (twenty‐one EU member states), the paper has two goals. First, to examine whether citizens’ left–right self‐placement has a different impact on the vote in different types of democratic regime, defined in terms of the contrast between consolidating and long‐established democracies. Secondly, to examine whether this contrast resists the introduction of controls for three other factors hypothesized to make a difference in the extent to which left–right orientations have a greater influence on the vote: the permissiveness of electoral system; the clarity of policy alternatives provided by the party system; and the particular type of party alignments along both the left–right and anti‐/pro‐integration scales that tend to characterize each country. Our findings corroborate that (the 2004 EP) elections do seem to be about choosing parties in terms of left–right orientations to a considerable extent. Furthermore, we found that the usefulness of left–right orientations as cues to the vote seems to be contingent upon a major contextual factor: greater levels of clarity of the policy alternatives provided by the party system render citizens’ left–right self‐placement more consequential for their EP vote. Finally, we found that left–right orientations may not be equally useful in consolidating and in the remaining established democracies.

Semi-presidentialism in lusophone countries: diffusion and operation

This article analyses the degree to which diffusion of Portugals semi-presidential constitution occurred within lusophone countries following their move to multipartism in the 1990s. To do so, we first identify the main characteristics of the 1976 Portuguese constitution. Next, the constitutional choices made in Angola, Cape Verde, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, São Tomé and Príncipe, and East Timor are mapped. Using existing typologies, we classify these regimes and contrast them with their European and francophone African counterparts. Finally, we investigate the effective dynamics of lusophone semi-presidential systems by focusing on how heads of state deal with heads of government and parliamentary majorities. We claim there is a “family resemblance” among lusophone semi-presidential regimes. This finding is important because it accounts for constitutional choices in a group of recent democratizing countries, and shows how external influences interact with local factors to produce major political outcomes.This article analyses the degree to which diffusion of Portugals semi-presidential constitution occurred within lusophone countries following their move to multipartism in the 1990s. To do so, we first identify the main characteristics of the 1976 Portuguese constitution. Next, the constitutional choices made in Angola, Cape Verde, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, Sao Tome and Principe, and East Timor are mapped. Using existing typologies, we classify these regimes and contrast them with their European and francophone African counterparts. Finally, we investigate the effective dynamics of lusophone semi-presidential systems by focusing on how heads of state deal with heads of government and parliamentary majorities. We claim there is a “family resemblance” among lusophone semi-presidential regimes. This finding is important because it accounts for constitutional choices in a group of recent democratizing countries, and shows how external influences interact with local factors to produce major political outcomes.

The Trials of a Socialist Government: Right-Wing Victories in Local and Presidential Elections in Portugal, 2005–2006

The October 2005 local elections and January 2006 presidential election were both marked by defeats for the Socialist Party, which mere months earlier had obtained its first parliamentary majority since democratization. While in both instances the defeats cannot be dissociated from poor strategic choices by the Socialists, they also suggest a shortening of the political cycle in Portugal, with remarkably short honeymoon periods for national governments. At the same time, the victory of a centre-right candidate in the presidential election ended the centre-lefts monopoly on the presidency since democratization. As such, it completes the alternation between the main parties in the political system of democratic Portugal.

SOUTH EUROPEAN ELECTION WATCH - The Return of the Portuguese Right: The 2001 Local Government Elections and the 2002 Legislative Elections

This report analyses the 2001 local elections and the 2002 legislative elections in Portugal. The results of the local elections were not an objective disaster for the Socialists. However, due to deteriorating political and economic circumstances, Prime Minister Guterres tendered his resignation. The legislative elections which ensued spelled the end of Socialist Party rule, and the victory, albeit without an absolute majority, of the centre-right party, the PSD. The elections also led to the formation of a coalition government, after 15 years of single-party government. Nevertheless, the alternation in power, as well as the change in government type, did not represent a fundamental shift in voting behaviour, as indicated by national and district party results.

This time it’s different? Effects of the Eurovision Debate on young citizens and its consequence for EU democracy – evidence from a quasi-experiment in 24 countries

ABSTRACT For the very first time in EU history, the 2014 EP elections provided citizens with the opportunity to influence the nomination of the Commission President by casting a vote for the main Europarties’ ‘lead candidates’. By subjecting the position of the Commission President to an open political contest, many experts have formulated the expectation that heightened political competition would strengthen the weak electoral connection between EU citizens and EU legislators, which some consider a root cause for the EU’s lack of public support. In particular, this contest was on display in the so-called ‘Eurovision Debate’, a televised debate between the main contenders for the Commission President broadcasted live across Europe. Drawing on a quasi-experimental study conducted in 24 EU countries, we find that debate exposure led to increased cognitive and political involvement and EU support among young citizens. Unfortunately, the debate has only reached a very small audience.