Marina van Geenhuizen

Coping with Uncertainty: An Expedition into the Field of New Transport Technology

Many decisions taken by mankind are rational only to a limited extent. This holds for individual travel behaviour, but also for long-range strategic decisions on transport systems or transport technology. In any decision problem, coping with uncertainty is the most critical element. The introduction of new transport technology is surrounded by uncertainty. For example, there is uncertainty about the pace and extent of adoption of new technology and there is uncertainty about the impact of new technology in terms of increased sustainability or increased efficiency. This article maps uncertainty surrounding new transport technology and identifies ways in which to deal with uncertainty in policy making. The findings will be illustrated with electric vehicles, particularly with two specific strategies to deal with uncertainty: interactive technology watching and experimentation in a market niche. The paper concludes with a discussion of success factors that influence the outcomes of such strategies.

Urbanization, Industrial Dynamics, and Spatial Development: A Company Life History Approach

In our times the city is the economic, social, cultural, and political heart of a society. It provides new impulses and energy for new activities and initiatives. The nodal position of a city in a broader regional, national, and international network offers an enormous potential with many challenges, but involves at the same time also many risks and uncertainties, e.g., from competition. The potential of cities has always attracted urban in-migrants, in both the developed and underdeveloped world. However, the movement toward urban territory as a whole has at the same time caused urban sprawl. Both the land prices and the environmental externalities in central areas of the cities have become an impediment to new household and firm location, so that an outward shift has taken place. Industries have moved to the urban fringe or to special industrial parks in the neighborhood of cities. People have moved to suburban — and even more distant — locations, but this massive movement has meant essentially only an expansion of functional urban territory. Thus, despite a broadening of the spatial range, the urban system has still kept its original function and has even reinforced it in the past decades.

Transport Innovation: Coping with the Future

An efficient transport system is a crucial precondition for economic development and an asset in international mobility. Mobility of passengers and transport of goods are considered key elements for a modern society. The transport sector is also a sector of continuous technological innovation. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding future transport technology and policy, as well as a large variation in ways to deal with this uncertainty. With regard to the latter it may be helpful to use more than one foresight method, e.g. a combination of methods each with a different emphasis on expertise, creativity and interaction with actors. Such a multiple method approach allows for the identification of those futures or future developments that are robust. This paper provides an introduction to the topic of transport innovation as well as providing a context for the four papers which follow in this special issue, illustrating the importance of taking such a multiple method approach.

Creative cities in a knowledge society: introduction

Nowadays there is much talk about the ‘knowledge society’. This concept has become rather fashionable and suggests that we live in a new era of human history in which knowledge is the prominent landmark and driver of socioeconomic and technological dynamics. And consequently, we talk about smart regions or cities, smart industries, smart technologies and even about smart knowledge. Clearly, we cannot deny the pervasive importance of knowledge for societal wellbeing, both locally and globally. But it also ought to be recognized that knowledge generation, acquisition and application have been accepted aspirations in all civilized societies. Ancient Greek history testifi es to the critical importance of knowledge for progress and performance; witness the statement of the infl uential Greek political philosopher and dramatist Euripides, who once claimed – in a period of political turmoil with neighbouring countries – that ‘knowledge is more important than a strong arm’. Insight and foresight are indeed critical success factors for wellbeing and survival. This is clearly refl ected in the names of two mythological fi gures in Ancient Greece, Prometheus and Epimetheus. These were two brothers, of divine origin, who were concerned about the fate of mankind and dared to challenge the ancient gods. The meaning of Prometheus is ‘the person who thinks ahead’, whereas the meaning of Epimetheus is ‘the person who thinks too late’. The two brothers managed to take fi re from heaven to bring life into bodies made out of clay. The revenge of Zeus was terrible, as he used Epimetheus as an instrument to introduce many disasters on earth – through Pandora’s Box – whereas Prometheus was punished for his cleverness. Apparently, knowledge can be a source of blessings or disasters. Novel knowledge can be a blessing for urban growth in one period but – if outdated – may lead to stagnation and low quality of life in periods that follow. Also, the period of Enlightenment marked an age where knowledge was seen as a vehicle for solid wisdom and new insights in order to cope with