Mário B. Ferreira

Automatic and controlled components of judgment and decision making.

The categorization of inductive reasoning into largely automatic processes (heuristic reasoning) and controlled analytical processes (rule-based reasoning) put forward by dual-process approaches of judgment under uncertainty (e.g., K. E. Stanovich & R. F. West, 2000) has been primarily a matter of assumption with a scarcity of direct empirical findings supporting it. The present authors use the process dissociation procedure (L. L. Jacoby, 1991) to provide convergent evidence validating a dual-process perspective to judgment under uncertainty based on the independent contributions of heuristic and rule-based reasoning. Process dissociations based on experimental manipulation of variables were derived from the most relevant theoretical properties typically used to contrast the two forms of reasoning. These include processing goals (Experiment 1), cognitive resources (Experiment 2), priming (Experiment 3), and formal training (Experiment 4); the results consistently support the authors perspective. They conclude that judgment under uncertainty is neither an automatic nor a controlled process but that it reflects both processes, with each making independent contributions.

“Identify-to-reject”: A specific strategy to avoid false memories in the DRM paradigm

Previous research using the Deese–Roediger–McDermott (DRM) paradigm has shown that lists of associates in which the critical words were easily identified as the themes of the lists produce lower levels of false memories in adults. In an attempt to analyze whether this effect is due to the application of a specific memory-editing process (the identify-to-reject strategy), two experiments manipulated variables that are likely to disrupt this strategy either at encoding or at retrieval. In Experiment 1, lists were presented at a very fast presentation rate to reduce the possibility of identifying the missing critical word as the theme of the list, and in Experiment 2, participants were pressed to give yes/no recognition answers within a very short time. The results showed that both of these manipulations disrupted the identifiability effect, indicating that the identify-to-reject strategy and theme identifiability play a major role in the rejection of false memories in the DRM paradigm.

The role of language comprehension in reasoning: How “good-enough” representations induce biases

Research on reasoning and judgment often uses problems where intuition and deliberation are in conflict, suggesting different solutions. In four studies, change detection was used to investigate whether biased responses to these problems are a consequence of faulty problem-solving or whether they can start earlier, from misrepresenting the information in the premises. After participants solved problems, they were presented with the same problems again in different versions, changing conflict problems to no-conflict problems and vice versa. Participants who were more sensitive to these changes showed better reasoning. These results suggest that biases can start before the problem-solving stage, from misrepresenting the conflict between deliberation and intuition.

Geostatistical distribution modelling of two invasive crayfish across dendritic stream networks

Species distribution models combining environmental and spatial components are increasingly used to understand and forecast species invasions. However, modelling distributions of invasive species inhabiting stream networks requires due consideration of their dendritic spatial structure, which may strongly constrain dispersal and colonization pathways. Here we evaluate the application of novel geostatistical tools to species distribution modelling in dendritic networks, using as case study two invasive crayfish (Procambarus clarkii and Pacifastacus leniusculus) in a Mediterranean watershed. Specifically, we used logistic mixed models to relate the probability of occurrence of each crayfish to environmental variables, while specifying three spatial autocorrelation components in random errors. These components described spatial dependencies between sites as a function of (1) straight-line distances (Euclidean model) between sites, (2) hydrologic (along the waterlines) distances between flow-connected sites (tail-up model), and (3) hydrologic distances irrespective of flow connection (tail-down model). We found a positive effect of stream order on P. clarkii, indicating an association with the lower and mid reaches of larger streams, while P. leniusculus was affected by an interaction between stream order and elevation, indicating an association with larger streams at higher altitude. For both species, models including environmental and spatial components far outperformed the pure environmental models, with the tail-up and the Euclidean components being the most important for P. clarkii and P. leniusculus, respectively. Overall, our study highlighted the value of geostatistical tools to model the distribution of riverine and aquatic invasive species, and stress the need to specify spatial dependencies representing the dendritic network structure of stream ecosystems.

Modeling stream fish distributions using interval-censored detection times.

Abstract Controlling for imperfect detection is important for developing species distribution models (SDMs). Occupancy‐detection models based on the time needed to detect a species can be used to address this problem, but this is hindered when times to detection are not known precisely. Here, we extend the time‐to‐detection model to deal with detections recorded in time intervals and illustrate the method using a case study on stream fish distribution modeling. We collected electrofishing samples of six fish species across a Mediterranean watershed in Northeast Portugal. Based on a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we modeled the probability of water presence in stream channels, and the probability of species occupancy conditional on water presence, in relation to environmental and spatial variables. We also modeled time‐to‐first detection conditional on occupancy in relation to local factors, using modified interval‐censored exponential survival models. Posterior distributions of occupancy probabilities derived from the models were used to produce species distribution maps. Simulations indicated that the modified time‐to‐detection model provided unbiased parameter estimates despite interval‐censoring. There was a tendency for spatial variation in detection rates to be primarily influenced by depth and, to a lesser extent, stream width. Species occupancies were consistently affected by stream order, elevation, and annual precipitation. Bayesian P‐values and AUCs indicated that all models had adequate fit and high discrimination ability, respectively. Mapping of predicted occupancy probabilities showed widespread distribution by most species, but uncertainty was generally higher in tributaries and upper reaches. The interval‐censored time‐to‐detection model provides a practical solution to model occupancy‐detection when detections are recorded in time intervals. This modeling framework is useful for developing SDMs while controlling for variation in detection rates, as it uses simple data that can be readily collected by field ecologists.

Strategic Numeracy: Self-Serving Reasoning About Health Statistics

This research shows that the same people who appear to have low numerical competence when analyzing personally irrelevant health-related numerical information are able to overcome their reasoning shortcomings and make better judgments when they are shown equivalent information that is personally relevant, and when only a sophisticated kind of reasoning enables them to interpret this information in a favorable way. The fact that people can engage in poorer or more sophisticated numerical reasoning depending on whether that reasoning produces favorable or unfavorable conclusions has implications both for the concept of numeracy as an individual-difference variable and for health communication.

A process-dissociation analysis of semantic illusions

We examine semantic illusions from a dual-process perspective according to which the processes that go into failing or succeeding to detect such illusions can be decomposed into controlled processes (checking the facts in the sentence against the information in memory) and automatic processes (the impression of truth that comes from the semantic associations between the elements in the sentence). These processes, we argue, make largely independent contributions to truth judgments about semantic-illusory sentences. The Process Dissociation Procedure was used to obtain estimates of these two kinds of processes. In Study 1, participants judged whether sentences were true or false while under high or low cognitive load. Cognitive load increased the rate of semantic illusions by specifically affecting controlled processing but not automatic processing. In Study 2, a previous paired-associate learning task also increased the rate of semantic illusions, but it did so by specifically affecting automatic processing, not controlled processing.

Ad Hoc Categories and False Memories: Memory Illusions for Categories Created On-The-Spot.

Three experiments were designed to test whether experimentally created ad hoc associative networks evoke false memories. We used the DRM (Deese, Roediger, McDermott) paradigm with lists of ad hoc categories composed of exemplars aggregated toward specific goals (e.g., going for a picnic) that do not share any consistent set of features. Experiment 1 revealed considerable levels of false recognitions of critical words from ad hoc categories. False recognitions occurred even when the lists were presented without an organizing theme (i.e., the category’s label). Experiments 1 and 2 tested whether (a) the ease of identifying the categories’ themes, and (b) the lists’ backward associative strength could be driving the effect. List identifiability did not correlate with false recognition, and the effect remained even when backward associative strength was controlled for. Experiment 3 manipulated the distractor items in the recognition task to address the hypothesis that the salience of unrelated items could be facilitating the occurrence of the phenomenon. The effect remained when controlling for this source of facilitation. These results have implications for assumptions made by theories of false memories, namely the preexistence of associations in the activation-monitoring framework and the central role of gist extraction in fuzzy-trace theory, while providing evidence of the occurrence of false memories for more dynamic and context-dependent knowledge structures.

Motivated reasoning in the prediction of sports outcomes and the belief in the “hot hand”

ABSTRACT The present paper explores the role of motivation to observe a certain outcome in people’s predictions, causal attributions, and beliefs about a streak of binary outcomes (basketball scoring shots). In two studies we found that positive streaks (points scored by the participants’ favourite team) lead participants to predict the streak’s continuation (belief in the hot hand), but negative streaks lead to predictions of its end (gambler’s fallacy). More importantly, these wishful predictions are supported by strategic attributions and beliefs about how and why a streak might unfold. Results suggest that the effect of motivation on predictions is mediated by a serial path via causal attributions to the teams at play and belief in the hot hand.

Inferential Costs of Trait Centrality in Impression Formation: Organization in Memory and Misremembering

An extension of the DRM paradigm was used to study the impact of central traits (Asch, 1946) in impression formation. Traits corresponding to the four clusters of the implicit theory of personality—intellectual, positive and negative; and social, positive and negative (Rosenberg et al., 1968)—were used to develop lists containing several traits of one cluster and one central trait prototypical of the opposite cluster. Participants engaging in impression formation relative to participants engaging in memorization not only produced higher levels of false memories corresponding to the same cluster of the list traits but, under response time pressure at retrieval, also produced more false memories of the cluster corresponding to the central trait. We argue that the importance of central traits stems from their ability to activate their corresponding semantic space within a specialized associative memory structure underlying the implicit theory of personality.