Mario Baldassarri

The American Grasshopper, the Chinese Ant, the Russian Eagle and the European Sleeping Beauty

When people talk about globalization they often tend to forget two essential aspects of Europe and the world’s agenda: do we really think that two examples of “benign neglect” that, in truth, are two examples of hypocrisy, can be tolerated internationally in the medium and long term?

How Long Can the European Beauty Keep Sleeping: Maastricht and Lisbon together or Maastricht Alone … For Ever and Ever. Amen?

The third millennium cannot exclusively be the Millennium of the Pacific, with Atlantic ties fading away, and, what is more, a new Atlantis, Africa, disappearing.

A Policy Mix to Re-Launch Growth under Conditions of Structural Equilibrium in Public Finance

The negative economic cycle that developed between 2004 and 2005 brought Italy down to a rate of growth of just above zero at the end of 2005. In the absence of economic policies, the Italian economy is expected to recover at rather moderate rates of growth during the next three years 2006–2008 (1.5% a year) and a bit faster (1.6%) in 2009. Under these conditions, with no interventions, net borrowing will settle well above 3% of GDP during the whole period. Other projections that were made during the second half of 2005 by several economic research institutes show an even more modest recovery with growth at approximately 1% in 2006. Accordingly, the outlook for the public deficit and the consequent financial imbalance will even be worse.

Financial Equilibrium and Higher Growth: An Analysis of Expenditure Items with the Purpose of Appraising Where to Find and Where to Shift Resources

The mainstays of a project to enhance development in Italy must be based on three themes: structural interventions and support to enterprises to ensure competitiveness and growth, safeguard and support household purchasing power, and provide a strong impulse to re-launching the Mezzogiorno.

A Strategy of Structural Policies for Competitiveness and Growth

The macroeconomic results obtained in the previous chapter show that more sustained growth is, certainly, not only desirable and necessary to keep pace with the most dynamic areas of Europe and, above all, the rest of the world, but is also possible. Moreover, biblical cataclysms in economic and social policies would not be called for. Instead, clear political choices would enable the country to increase growth through the most efficient and effective allocation of resources.

The World Has Changed: Wake Up, Europe!

The first impression that everyone had after having seen, live, the collapse of the Twin Towers was that from then on, the world would never be the same. At first, it was not easy to evaluate the impact that such an event would have on political and economic equilibrium. September 11 will be a watershed in history, dividing what came before from what has come after. Many other elements, since then, have emerged and exploded on the international scene regarding new structures, new phenomena and new risks. Less than five years have gone by and a new world is already looming. Day by day, events are unfolding and can be measured in a way that perhaps was not even imaginable until just recently.

Does a Positive Sum Game that Makes Everyone Better Off Really Exist? The Risks and Temptations from the Myopic and Egoistic Viewpoints of Individual Continents and Countries

In the previous chapter we started by considering that the world economy has no long-run real and financial equilibrium, given current world governance, i.e. the current situation in which China has entered the WTO, without having allowed her exchange rate to float freely in the market but, instead, pegging the yuan to a devaluating US dollar. With this in mind we performed several alternative simulations and we measured the different perspectives in terms of a final result which would be to obtain sustainable US deficit and debt with higher growth for each area in the world.

Fifty Years Ago … Until a Few Years Ago

In the last 50 years the terms of trade between industrialized countries (prices of industrial products) and developing non-oil producing ones (prices for raw materials excluding petroleum) have shifted in favour of the first group of countries, rising at a yearly average rate of 0.7% (Figure 2.1 below).

World Growth, Trade, Real and Financial Imbalances, the International Monetary System and Exchange Rates: A Global Vision

In Chapter 3 we produced a very rough projection of the world economy according to the average rate that the various continents recorded over the last five years. Just to be thought provoking, we showed how the composition of the G8 could change and what a huge share of world GDP would be concentrated in the first three economies (China, the US and India) starting by 2015 and until 2030. Obviously, that was a game.

Thirty Years from Now … If Everything Continues as It Has in the Last Five Years

During recent years, the scenario for world development has radically changed. A growing number of countries have joined the WTO and their explicit intention of breaking down commercial barriers has favoured a progressive integration of world trade. China and India, above all, have availed themselves of the opportunities offered by this altered scenario. For different historical and political motivations these two countries had previously excluded themselves from the mechanisms of world trade. Now that they have joined the already strong presence of other smaller economies of Southeast Asia (the so-called “tigers of the East”) on the international scene, they have, in turn, spurred the dramatic acceleration of economic and financial integration currently taking place around the world.