Mario Fortin

Sectoral shifts, stock market dispersion and unemployment in Canada

Considerable attention has been given in the last ten years to estimation of the importance of sectoral shifts in explaining short-term fluctuations in unemployment. Recent studies have used US stock prices data to develop indexes of sectoral shocks less affected by cyclical influence than Liliens employment dispersion index. Two indexes of sectoral shifts for Canada based on the sectoral dispersion of stock prices growth rates are calculated. These indexes are then used in unemployment equations incorporating variables measuring aggregate demand shocks and structural changes in order to assess the importance of sectoral and cyclical shocks in the determination of the Canadian unemployment rate. The estimation leads to the conclusion that the major recessions of 1981-82 and 1990-91 have been caused by aggregate demand shocks. However, both types of shocks contributed to the 1974-75 recession while the mild recession of 1980 was accompanied by an important sectoral shock. Estimations also show that the most important sectoral shock was in 1986, following the drop in energy prices, but a strong aggregate demand prevented any change in the unemployment rate at this time. The model also detects an important structural rise in the unemployment rate during the seventies. On the whole, the results show that, although sectoral shifts have the potential to induce short-term unemployment fluctuations, actual changes in the Canadian unemployment rate were mainly the consequences of monetary conditions and foreign demand for Canadian goods and services.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

The Beveridge curve and unemployment fluctuations in Canada

We estimate the impact of cyclical, sectoral, and participation shocks and that of the trend on both the Canadian unemployment rate and the job vacancy rate over the 1969 to 1998 period. We conclude that a rise in the Canadian unemployment rate of almost 5 percentage units occurred between 1972 and 1982 because of participation rate shocks and a trend movement. Because the trend also explains the leftward shift of the Beveridge curve observed in the 1990s, this shift cannot be interpreted as a decline in the natural unemployment rate.

Estimation des Économies D'échelle et de gamme dans de petites coopératives de services financiers: le cas des caisses populaires acadiennes

This study uses accounting data stemming from 80 credit unions affiliated to the “Federation des caisses populaires acadiennes” to estimate a multi-product translog cost function with the aim to test for the presence of scale and scope economies. The cost model relies on the production approach and the financial services are gathered in four categories of products. The model is completed by three inputs and one control variable, the latter being used to capture the heterogeneity of costs arising from the average wealth of membership. Since the estimated output elasticity of the total cost, 0.89, is statistically less than one, the models detect quite important scale economies. As to scope economies, they are present but the coefficients are weakly significant.