Mario Francisco-Fernández

Local polynomial regression estimation with correlated errors

In this paper, we study the nonparametric estimation of the regression function and its derivatives using weighted local polynomial fitting. Consider the fixed regression model and suppose that the random observation error is coming from a strictly stationary stochastic process. Expressions for the bias and the variance array of the estimators of the regression function and its derivatives are obtained and joint asymptotic normality is established. The influence of the dependence of the data is observed in the expression of the variance. We also propose a variable bandwidth selection procedure. A simulation study and an analysis with real economic data illustrate the proposed selection method.

PLUG-IN BANDWIDTH SELECTOR FOR LOCAL POLYNOMIAL REGRESSION ESTIMATOR WITH CORRELATED ERRORS

Consider the fixed regression model where the error random variables are coming from a strictly stationary, non-white noise stochastic process. In a situation like this, automated bandwidth selection methods for non-parametric regression break down. We present a plug-in method for choosing the smoothing parameter for local least squares estimators of the regression function. The method takes the presence of correlated errors explicitly into account through a parametric correlation function specification. The theoretical performance for the local linear estimator of the regression function is obtained in the case of an AR(1) correlation function. These results can readily be extended to other settings, such as different parametric specifications of the correlation function, derivative estimation and multiple non-parametric regression. Estimators of regression functionals and the error correlation based on local least squares ideas are developed in this article. A simulation study and an analysis with real economic data illustrate the selection method proposed.

Simulation study for generalized logistic function in thermal data modeling

The principal aim of the present study is to describe, analyze, and compare from a statistical standpoint the generalized logistic model with some well-known models used in the solid-state kinetics: power law, Avrami–Erofeev, and reaction order. For this purpose, synthetic conversion curves that simulate the kinetic processes were generated using the power law, Avrami–Erofeev, and reaction order models, where the Arrhenius equation was assumed in all the cases. This comprehensive simulation study allows to describe the relationship between the parameters belonging to the proposed generalized logistic model and the pointed traditional models’ parameters, and also to validate the performance of the generalized logistic model in a wide variety of cases where other methods can be applied. Performing this analysis has been necessary to employ some new statistical techniques in thermal analysis modeling as the generalized additive models, and to perform global optimization evolutionary algorithms as the differential evolution for solving the non-linear regression problem. In order to implement these techniques, R statistical software routines were developed and applied.

Nonparametric functional data estimation applied to ozone data: Prediction and extreme value analysis

The study of extreme values and prediction of ozone data is an important topic of research when dealing with environmental problems. Classical extreme value theory is usually used in air-pollution studies. It consists in fitting a parametric generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to a data set of extreme values, and using the estimated distribution to compute return levels and other quantities of interest. Here, we propose to estimate these values using nonparametric functional data methods. Functional data analysis is a relatively new statistical methodology that generally deals with data consisting of curves or multi-dimensional variables. In this paper, we use this technique, jointly with nonparametric curve estimation, to provide alternatives to the usual parametric statistical tools. The nonparametric estimators are applied to real samples of maximum ozone values obtained from several monitoring stations belonging to the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) in the UK. The results show that nonparametric estimators work satisfactorily, outperforming the behaviour of classical parametric estimators. Functional data analysis is also used to predict stratospheric ozone concentrations. We show an application, using the data set of mean monthly ozone concentrations in Arosa, Switzerland, and the results are compared with those obtained by classical time series (ARIMA) analysis.

Computing statistical indices for hydrothermal times using weed emergence data

This research was partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Grant MTM2008-00166 (ERDF included) for the first and the second authors, by Xunta de Galicia Grant PGIDIT07PXIB105259PR for the second author and by Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Grant AGL2005-544 for the fourth and fifth authors.

A random effect multiplicative heteroscedastic model for bacterial growth.

BackgroundPredictive microbiology develops mathematical models that can predict the growth rate of a microorganism population under a set of environmental conditions. Many primary growth models have been proposed. However, when primary models are applied to bacterial growth curves, the biological variability is reduced to a single curve defined by some kinetic parameters (lag time and growth rate), and sometimes the models give poor fits in some regions of the curve. The development of a prediction band (from a set of bacterial growth curves) using non-parametric and bootstrap methods permits to overcome that problem and include the biological variability of the microorganism into the modelling process.ResultsAbsorbance data from Listeria monocytogenes cultured at 22, 26, 38, and 42°C were selected under different environmental conditions of pH (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.4) and percentage of NaCl (2.5, 3.5, 4.5, and 5.5). Transformation of absorbance data to viable count data was carried out. A random effect multiplicative heteroscedastic model was considered to explain the dynamics of bacterial growth. The concept of a prediction band for microbial growth is proposed. The bootstrap method was used to obtain resamples from this model. An iterative procedure is proposed to overcome the computer intensive task of calculating simultaneous prediction intervals, along time, for bacterial growth. The bands were narrower below the inflection point (0-8 h at 22°C, and 0-5.5 h at 42°C), and wider to the right of it (from 9 h onwards at 22°C, and from 7 h onwards at 42°C). A wider band was observed at 42°C than at 22°C when the curves reach their upper asymptote. Similar bands have been obtained for 26 and 38°C.ConclusionsThe combination of nonparametric models and bootstrap techniques results in a good procedure to obtain reliable prediction bands in this context. Moreover, the new iterative algorithm proposed in this paper allows one to achieve exactly the prefixed coverage probability for the prediction band. The microbial growth bands reflect the influence of the different environmental conditions on the microorganism behaviour, helping in the interpretation of the biological meaning of the growth curves obtained experimentally.

Bandwidth Selection for the Local Polynomial Estimator under Dependence: a Simulation Study

SummarySeven of the most popular methods for bandwidth selection in regression estimation are compared by means of a thorough simulation study, when the local polynomial estimator is used and the observations are dependent. The study is completed with two plug-in bandwidths for the generalized local polynomial estimator proposed by Vilar-Fernândez & Francisco-Fernández (2002).

Classification of wood using differential thermogravimetric analysis

The aim of this study is to propose an alternative methodology to classify wood species using the first (DTG), second (2DTG), and third (3DTG) derivatives of the thermogravimetric curves (TG). Accordingly, the main contribution of this new procedure consists on classifying materials (wood) taking into account the mass loss rate and acceleration with respect to temperature. In our research, each TG curve is firstly smoothed using the local polynomial regression estimator, and the first, second, and third derivatives are estimated. The application of the local polynomial regression estimator provides a reliable way to obtain the TG derivatives, overcoming the noise problem in the TG derivative estimation. Then, using these estimated curves, the different wood classes are discriminated employing a nonparametric functional data analysis (NPFDA) technique, based on the Bayes rule and the Nadaraya-Watson regression estimator, and also novel functional generalized additive models (GAM). The latter allows to classify materials using simultaneously more than one type of thermal curves. The results are compared with those obtained using classical and machine learning multivariate supervised classification methods, such as Linear discriminant analysis, Quadratic classification, Naïve Bayes, Logistic regression,

Statistical functional approach for interlaboratory studies with thermal data

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