Mario Soliño

Dealing with Heterogeneous Preferences Using Multilevel Mixed Models

One of the main issues on the research agenda regarding stated preference methods concerns the heterogeneity of preferences either within or between individuals. We present a multilevel mixed model (MMM) to capture heterogeneity in deterministic utility components, instead of simply leaving them to random components. MMM captures heterogeneity at different levels: individuals, locations, and groups of individuals sharing other characteristics. The results show that individuals’ surroundings help to capture heterogeneity, and that can be controlled by specifying these aspects as predictors for this behavioral model. Therefore, MMM may contribute to the identification of the underlying structure affecting environmental decisions. (JEL D62, Q51)

Social preferences for fuel break management programs in Spain: a choice modelling application to prevention of forest fires

This article reports on an economic valuation study of alternative fire prevention programs in the province of Malaga, southern Spain. The main aim of this study was to explore the social preferences for several forest fire prevention management issues. Fuel break programs were presented that differed in terms of cleaning technique (controlled grazing, prescribed burning and mechanical treatments), design (from traditional linear unshaded fire breaks to more landscape and environmentally friendly structures, such as shaded fuel breaks) and density (linked to annual burnt area). RESULTS show that the population was clearly interested in the potential of the proposed programs to reduce fire. Lessons learnt from this study could be relevant for the development of fire prevention policies and specific prevention campaigns in Mediterranean forests.

Personality traits and environmental choices: On the search for understanding.

In this paper we hypothesize that individuals will choose among alternative courses of action for power generation from wind farms according to their personality profiles. Through a factor analysis we found that certain characteristics of personality do indeed have an effect on environmental choice. The study involves an extensive survey based on the Big Five Traits model to find a pattern of choice that will help to better understand environmental decisions and be useful for policy makers to identify target groups and preview reactions to different courses of action. The research is potentially useful for the better preparation and design of publicity material, awareness raising campaigns and information provision for complex or unpopular policies affecting the environment or in environmental education in general. This research is especially interested in shedding some light on how personality is involved in the processes of environmental decision making, despite the limitations of the present study.

Incorporating exposure to pitch canker disease to support management decisions of Pinus pinaster Ait. in the face of climate change

Climate change is gravely affecting forest ecosystems, resulting in large distribution shifts as well as in increasing infection diseases and biological invasions. Accordingly, forest management requires an evaluation of exposure to climate change that should integrate both its abiotic and biotic components. Here we address the implications of climate change in an emerging disease by analysing both the host species (Pinus pinaster, Maritime pine) and the pathogen’s (Fusarium circinatum, pitch canker) environmental suitability i.e. estimating the host’s risk of habitat loss and the disease`s future environmental range. We constrained our study area to the Spanish Iberian Peninsula, where accurate climate and pitch canker occurrence databases were available. While P. pinaster is widely distributed across the study area, the disease has only been detected in its north-central and north-western edges. We fitted species distribution models for the current distribution of the conifer and the disease. Then, these models were projected into nine Global Climate Models and two different climatic scenarios which totalled to 18 different future climate predictions representative of 2050. Based on the level of agreement among them, we created future suitability maps for the pine and for the disease independently, which were then used to assess exposure of current populations of P. pinaster to abiotic and biotic effects of climate change. Almost the entire distribution of P. pinaster in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula will be subjected to abiotic exposure likely to be driven by the predicted increase in drought events in the future. Furthermore, we detected a reduction in exposure to pitch canker that will be concentrated along the north-western edge of the study area. Setting up breeding programs is recommended in highly exposed and productive populations, while silvicultural methods and monitoring should be applied in those less productive, but still exposed, populations.

Hunters’ preferences and willingness to pay for driven hunts in southern Europe

Abstract Context. Driven hunts exemplify the most representative form of big-game hunting in southern Europe. Aims. We analysed hunter preferences for driven hunts and the marginal willingness to pay for their characteristics. Methods. We conducted a discrete-choice experiment for driven hunts, taking into account the number of deer that could be hunted, the possibility of free-range wild-boar hunting, the presence of trophies, and other characteristics of driven hunts, such as congestion and travel time. Key results. The highest influential driven-hunt characteristic on the utility of big-game hunters is the presence of trophy specimens, whereas for the small-game hunter it would be free-range wild-boar hunting. Conclusions. Small-game hunters are reluctant to participate in the big-game market because of cultural factors and not because of budgetary restrictions. Implications. Wildlife management and marketing of driven hunts can be improved taking into account the hunter preferences.

Mitigation strategies for conserving bird diversity under climate change scenarios in Europe: The role of forest naturalization

There are many possible strategies to promote naturalization in anthropogenic landscapes to mitigate global change effects. We combined large-scale databases available for continental Spain on: (1) distribution of breeding birds, (2) forest inventory stands, (3) land-use cover, (4) 18 global climate models recently developed at local scales, and (5) historical and genetically-based information on the distribution of natural versus planted pine forests, to analyze whether back to nature strategies may help to mitigate biodiversity loss due to climate change. We performed the analysis along environmental and ecological gradients of pine forests in Southern Europe. Models suggested that, naturalization strategies, in this case defined by the replacement of planted pine forests and eucalyptus forests by natural pine forests, could help to mitigate the expected loss of bird diversity due to climate change, but that mitigation efficiency will vary along environmental and ecological gradients. Maximum levels of diversity mitigation were predicted at intermediate levels of naturalization, with lower bird richness in areas where all pine forests were either planted or naturalized. Efficiency also varied spatially, given that both cold- and hot-spots of climate-driven bird diversity loss were identified. Transforming planted forest into natural forest is not a mitigation panacea, and additional regionally-adapted strategies may be identified to mitigate the expected biodiversity loss in forest ecosystems.

Behind the economics of hunting in Andalusian forests

Hunting in Spain represents an imperfect market in which some hunters pay a price that is below what would be paid or they simply do not pay a market price. This article evidences the welfare that hunting activities provide to hunters in the forests of southern Spain. To do so, a contingent valuation survey of 557 hunters was conducted, and their maximum willingness to pay (WTP) to maintain their hunting activity over a hunting season was obtained. Bids were established according to the individual expenditure in the hunting market, thereby incorporating heterogeneity into the very design of the valuation exercise. The results show an additional WTP of 212 euros per hunter during the 2009–2010 hunting season, meaning 24% above their actual mean expenditure during that season. Likewise, the research shows how small game hunters are the ones who, in relative terms, would be willing to pay more for the hunting services.

Internal validity in discrete choice experiments: varying the position of the price attribute

ABSTRACT This article presents an analysis of internal validity in discrete choice experiments. Prior studies have analysed the importance of the order of attributes within a multiple choice context, but few have specifically analysed the importance of the location of the price attribute. The internal validity was analysed while considering variations in the position of the price attribute in the choice cards. Results show differences in the estimates of willingness to pay according to the price-location version used: at the beginning, in the middle or at the end of the choice card.