Marion Bougamont

Impact of model physics on estimating the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet

Long-term predictions of sea level rise from increased Greenland ice sheet melting have been derived using Positive Degree Day models only. It is, however, unknown precisely what uncertainties are associated with applying this simple surface melt parameterization for future climate. We compare the behavior of a Positive Degree Day and Energy Balance/ Snowpack model for estimating the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet under a warming climate. Both models were first tuned to give similar values for present-day mass balance using 10 years of ERA-40 climatology and were then run for 300 years, forced with the output of a GCM in which atmospheric CO2 increased to 4 times preindustrial levels. Results indicate that the Positive Degree Day model is more sensitive to climate warming than the Energy Balance model, generating annual runoff rates almost twice as large for a fixed ice sheet geometry. Roughly half of this difference was due to differences in the volume of melt generated and half was due to differences in refreezing rates in the snowpack. Our results indicate that the modeled snowpack properties evolve on a multidecadal timescale to changing climate, with a potentially large impact on the mass balance of the ice sheet; an evolution that was absent from the Positive Degree Day model. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Numerical investigations of the slow-down of Whillans Ice Stream, West Antarctica: is it shutting down like Ice Stream C?

Abstract We investigate whether the recent slow-down of Whillans Ice Stream (WIS), West Antarctica, may lead to its complete stoppage in the near future, using a numerical model. Basal resistance to ice-stream motion is represented by a continuous till layer whose strength changes in response to basal melting and freezing. We implement a basal drainage system, which acts to hinder ice-stream stoppage through supply of extra water to those parts of the bed that are experiencing freezing. The ice module is a standard flowline model with parameterized key out-of-plane effects (Raymond, 1996). The most important result of our modeling effort is that we never obtained a slow-down that would not be followed by a complete stoppage within <100 years. WIS slow-down can be avoided in the model if large basal water-input rates are assumed, to satisfy basal freezing. In comparison, the tested perturbations in WIS width and mass balance had a relatively small effect on the tendency of the simulated ice stream to slow down. These results underscore the need for more quantitative constraints on the efficiency of sub-ice-stream water drainage. We conjecture that the present-day slow-down of WIS will evolve to shut-down in the next few decades, unless an addition of basal water prevents freeze-on-driven bed strengthening.

Sensitive response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to surface melt drainage over a soft bed

The dynamic response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) depends on feedbacks between surface meltwater delivery to the subglacial environment and ice flow. Recent work has highlighted an important role of hydrological processes in regulating the ice flow, but models have so far overlooked the mechanical effect of soft basal sediment. Here we use a three-dimensional model to investigate hydrological controls on a GrIS soft-bedded region. Our results demonstrate that weakening and strengthening of subglacial sediment, associated with the seasonal delivery of surface meltwater to the bed, modulates ice flow consistent with observations. We propose that sedimentary control on ice flow is a viable alternative to existing models of evolving hydrological systems, and find a strong link between the annual flow stability, and the frequency of high meltwater discharge events. Consequently, the observed GrIS resilience to enhanced melt could be compromised if runoff variability increases further with future climate warming.

Variable deceleration of Whillans Ice Stream, West Antarctica

The Whillans Ice Stream Ice Plain (WIP) has been slowing since at least 1963. Prior constraints on this slowdown were consistent with a constant long-term deceleration rate. New observations of ice velocity from 11 continuous and 3 seasonal GPS sites indicate the deceleration rate varies through time including on interannual time scales. Between 2009 and 2012 WIP decelerated at a rate (6.1 to 10.9 ± 2 m/yr2) that was double the multidecadal average (3.0 to 5.6 ± 2 m/yr2). To identify the causes of slowdown, we used new and prior velocity estimates to constrain longitudinal and transverse force budget models as well as a higher-order inverse model. All model results support the conclusion that the observed deceleration of WIP is caused by an increase in basal resistance to motion at a rate of 10 to 40 Pa/yr. Subglacial processes that may be responsible for strengthening the ice stream bed include basal freeze on, changes in subglacial hydrology, or increases in the area of resistant basal substrate through differential erosion. The observed variability in WIP deceleration rate suggests that dynamics in subglacial hydrology, plausibly driven by basal freeze on and/or activity of subglacial lakes, plays a key role in modulating basal resistance to ice motion in the region.

Significant groundwater contribution to Antarctic ice streams hydrologic budget

Satellite observations have revealed active hydrologic systems beneath Antarctic ice streams, but sources and sinks of water within these systems are uncertain. Here we use numerical simulations of ice streams to estimate the generation, flux, and budget of water beneath five ice streams on the Siple Coast. We estimate that 47% of the total hydrologic input (0.98 km3 yr−1) to Whillans (WIS), Mercer (MIS), and Kamb (KIS) ice streams comes from the ice sheet interior and that only 8% forms by local basal melting. The remaining 45% comes from a groundwater reservoir, an overlooked source in which depletion significantly exceeds recharge. Of the total input to Bindschadler (BIS) and MacAyeal (MacIS) ice streams (0.56 km3 yr−1), 72% comes from the interior, 19% from groundwater, and 9% from local melting. This contrasting hydrologic setting modulates the ice streams flow and has important implications for the search for life in subglacial lakes.

Reactivation of Kamb Ice Stream tributaries triggers century‐scale reorganization of Siple Coast ice flow in West Antarctica

Ongoing, centennial-scale flow variability within the Ross ice streams of West Antarctica suggests that the present-day positive mass balance in this region may reverse in the future. Here we use a three-dimensional ice sheet model to simulate ice flow in this region over 250 years. The flow responds to changing basal properties, as a subglacial till layer interacts with water transported in an active subglacial hydrological system. We show that a persistent weak bed beneath the tributaries of the dormant Kamb Ice Stream is a source of internal ice flow instability, which reorganizes all ice streams in this region, leading to a reduced (positive) mass balance within decades and a net loss of ice within two centuries. This hitherto unaccounted for flow variability could raise sea level by 5 mm this century. Furthermore, better constraints on future sea level change from this region will require improved estimates of geothermal heat flux and subglacial water transport.

Hydrologic forcing of ice stream flow promotes rapid transport of sediment in basal ice

The geologic record from high-latitude continental margins shows that soft-bedded ice streams are capable of eroding, transporting, and depositing large volumes of sediment. Interpretation of these records relies on correct understanding of how sediments were transferred. We use a three-dimensional numerical ice-flow model, with physically based processes taking place in a Coulomb-plastic basal till layer, to test a new hypothesis related to sedimentary processes occurring beneath ice streams. Based on recent observations of a 15-m-thick debris-bearing basal ice layer (BIL) in Kamb Ice Stream, Antarctica, we propose that sediment entrainment by freeze-on, followed by englacial transport, and eventually meltout, represent efficient mechanisms whereby ice streams erode their bed and redistribute sediments. Our experimental setup produces results where ice stream flow is characterized by oscillations between fast and stagnant modes of flow. We show that there is a strong coupling between the amplitude of the ice stream oscillations and the amount of sediment eroded and transferred out of the modeled system due exclusively to the formation and advection of a BIL. We also show that increased incorporation of water from a basal water system amplifies the oscillations and thus the growth of the BIL. The patterns of ice stream flow, and associated sediment fluxes and transport seen in our model, are consistent with modern Antarctic ice streams as well as the seemingly erratic behavior of paleo–ice streams during the last deglaciation.

Cascading lake drainage on the Greenland Ice Sheet triggered by tensile shock and fracture

Supraglacial lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet are expanding inland, but the impact on ice flow is equivocal because interior surface conditions may preclude the transfer of surface water to the bed. Here we use a well-constrained 3D model to demonstrate that supraglacial lakes in Greenland drain when tensile-stress perturbations propagate fractures in areas where fractures are normally absent or closed. These melt-induced perturbations escalate when lakes as far as 80 km apart form expansive networks and drain in rapid succession. The result is a tensile shock that establishes new surface-to-bed hydraulic pathways in areas where crevasses transiently open. We show evidence for open crevasses 135 km inland from the ice margin, which is much farther inland than previously considered possible. We hypothesise that inland expansion of lakes will deliver water and heat to isolated regions of the ice sheet’s interior where the impact on ice flow is potentially large.Lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet transfer water to the bed when they drain, but the impact is unknown. Here, the authors use a 3D model to show that lakes drain when fractures form, causing a chain reaction in which cascading lake drainages extend inland and deliver water to previously isolated regions of the bed.

Seismic evidence for complex sedimentary control of Greenland Ice Sheet flow

Seismic data show that subglacial sediment slip causes a complex flow response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to climate warming. The land-terminating margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet has slowed down in recent decades, although the causes and implications for future ice flow are unclear. Explained originally by a self-regulating mechanism where basal slip reduces as drainage evolves from low to high efficiency, recent numerical modeling invokes a sedimentary control of ice sheet flow as an alternative hypothesis. Although both hypotheses can explain the recent slowdown, their respective forecasts of a long-term deceleration versus an acceleration of ice flow are contradictory. We present amplitude-versus-angle seismic data as the first observational test of the alternative hypothesis. We document transient modifications of basal sediment strengths by rapid subglacial drainages of supraglacial lakes, the primary current control on summer ice sheet flow according to our numerical model. Our observations agree with simulations of initial postdrainage sediment weakening and ice flow accelerations, and subsequent sediment restrengthening and ice flow decelerations, and thus confirm the alternative hypothesis. Although simulated melt season acceleration of ice flow due to weakening of subglacial sediments does not currently outweigh winter slowdown forced by self-regulation, they could dominate over the longer term. Subglacial sediments beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet must therefore be mapped and characterized, and a sedimentary control of ice flow must be evaluated against competing self-regulation mechanisms.

Antarctic subglacial groundwater: a concept paper on its measurement and potential influence on ice flow

Abstract Is groundwater abundant in Antarctica and does it modulate ice flow? Answering this question matters because ice streams flow by gliding over a wet substrate of till. Water fed to ice-stream beds thus influences ice-sheet dynamics and, potentially, sea-level rise. It is recognized that both till and the sedimentary basins from which it originates are porous and could host a reservoir of mobile groundwater that interacts with the subglacial interfacial system. According to recent numerical modelling, up to half of all water available for basal lubrication, and time lags between hydrological forcing and ice-sheet response as long as millennia, may have been overlooked in models of ice flow. Here, we review evidence in support of Antarctic groundwater and propose how it can be measured to ascertain the extent to which it modulates ice flow. We present new seismoelectric soundings of subglacial till, and magnetotelluric and transient electromagnetic forward models of subglacial groundwater reservoirs. We demonstrate that multifaceted and integrated geophysical datasets can detect, delineate and quantify the groundwater contents of subglacial sedimentary basins and, potentially, monitor groundwater exchange rates between subglacial till layers. The paper thus describes a new area of glaciological investigation and how it should progress in future.