Marion Gehlen

Regional Impacts of Climate Change and Atmospheric CO2 on Future Ocean Carbon Uptake: A Multimodel Linear Feedback Analysis

The increase in atmospheric CO2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air–sea CO2 uptake, which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO2 itself and climate change. Here, the future oceanic CO2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate–carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully separates the regional future (2010–2100) oceanic CO2 uptake into a CO2-induced component, due to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a climate-induced component, due to global warming. The models capture the observationbased magnitude and distribution of anthropogenic CO2 uptake. The distributions of the climate-induced component are broadly consistent between the models, with reduced CO2 uptake in the subpolar Southern Ocean and the equatorial regions, owing to decreased CO2 solubility; and reduced CO2 uptake in the midlatitudes, owing to decreased CO2 solubility and increased vertical stratification. The magnitude of the climate-induced component is sensitive to local warming in the southern extratropics, to large freshwater fluxes in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean, and to small changes in the CO2 solubility in the equatorial regions. In key anthropogenic CO2 uptake regions, the climate-induced component offsets the CO2induced component at a constant proportion up until the end of this century. This amounts to approximately 50% in the northern extratropics and 25% in the southern extratropics and equatorial regions. Consequently, the detection of climate change impacts on anthropogenic CO2 uptake may be difficult without monitoring additional tracers, such as oxygen.

Spatial and temporal variability of benthic silica fluxes in the southeastern North Sea

Sediment-water exchange fluxes and pore water profiles of Si(OH)4 were determined in August 1991 and February 1992 for a total of 16 stations located along the northeastward transport path of organic matter in the North Sea. The shape of Si(OH)4 profiles indicated that at several stations mass transport is controlled by turbulent diffusion induced by wave and current mixing in the upper, perturbated centimetres of the sedimentary column. The spatial distribution of silica effluxes clearly reflected the depositional environment, with highest exchange rates linked to areas of recent deposition. Outside the main deposition areas, transient deposition of fresh planktonic material is a key process in explaining observed silica effluxes. The temporal variability of silica effluxes followed the annual cycle of pelagic primary production. During August 1991, measured fluxes ranged from 0.18 to 8.90 mmoles Si m−2 day−1. Fluxes obtained during February 1992 were decreased by a factor between 2 and 8. Fluxes measured before and after inactivation of fauna with N2-flushing permitted an estimation of the bioirrigation to be made. The latter accounted for an enhancement of solute exchange ranging from 1.1 to 3.4.

Early diagenesis of silica in sandy North sea sediments: quantification of the solid phase☆

The suitability of selected alkaline leaching techniques for the quantification of reactive solid phase silica in sandy North Sea sediments was assessed. A single leach in a 2 M Na2CO3 solution for 5 h at 85°C resulted in an overestimation of the biogenic silica fraction owing to an increased leachout of silica from clays. Sequential leaching in 0.1 M Na2CO3 at 85°C for 5 h yielded two to ten times lower contents. Levels down to 3 μmol g−1 dry sediment were determined. The obtained contents ranged from below 10 μmol g−1 for the erosion dominated stations of the Dogger Bank proper to contents exceeding 20 μmol g−1 for locations north and south of the Dogger Bank. Dissolution of natural sediments in silica-poor seawater allowed for a characterization of the most labile pool of silica. Marked differences between the individual stations in readily soluble silica contents were only observed in the upper layers. The stations at the border of the area had maximal contents exceeding 1 μmol g−1, as compared with below 0.2 μmol g−1 for the others. The consistency between the results of the dissolution experiments, pore-water data and exchange fluxes indicates a control of the pore-water silica concentration by the availability of reactive solid silica in the sediments studied.

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

Significance Phytoplankton is at the base of the marine food web. Its carbon fixation, the net primary productivity (NPP), sustains most living marine resources. In regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), natural fluctuations of NPP have large impacts on marine ecosystems including fisheries. The capacity to predict these natural variations would provide an important asset to science-based management approaches but remains unexplored yet. In this paper, we demonstrate that natural variations of NPP in the tropical Pacific can be forecasted several years in advance beyond the physical environment, whereas those of sea surface temperature are limited to 1 y. These results open previously unidentified perspectives for the future development of science-based management techniques of marine ecosystems based on multiyear forecasts of NPP. With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.

Nonlinearity of Ocean Carbon Cycle Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models

Carbon cycle feedbacks are usually categorized into carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks, which arise owing to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and changing physical climate. Both feedbacks are often assumedtooperateindependently:thatis,thetotalfeedbackcanbeexpressed asthesumoftwoindependentcarbon fluxes that are functions of atmospheric CO2 and climate change, respectively. For phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), radiatively and biogeochemically coupled simulations have been undertaken to better understand carbon cycle feedback processes. Results show that the sum of total ocean carbon uptake in the radiatively and biogeochemically coupled experiments is consistently larger by 19–58 petagrams of carbon (Pg C) than the uptake found in the fully coupled model runs. This nonlinearity is small compared to the total ocean carbon uptake (533–676PgC), but it is of the same order as the carbon–climate feedback. The weakening of ocean circulation and mixing with climate change makes the largest contribution to the nonlinear carbon cycle response since carbon transport to depth is suppressed in the fully relative to the biogeochemically coupled simulations, while the radiatively coupled experiment mainly measures the loss of near-surface carbon owing to warming of the ocean. Sea ice retreat and seawater carbon chemistry contribute less to the simulated nonlinearity. The authors’ results indicate thatestimatesoftheocean carbon–climate feedback derived from‘‘warming only’’ (radiativelycoupled)simulations may underestimate the reduction of ocean carbon uptake in a warm climate high CO2 world.

Assessing the sensitivity of modeled air-sea CO2 exchange to the remineralization depth of particulate organic and inorganic carbon

To assess the sensitivity of surface ocean pCO(2) and air-sea CO2 fluxes to changes in the remineralization depth of particulate organic and inorganic carbon (POC, PIC), a biogeochemical ocean circulation model (PISCES) was run with different parameterizations for vertical particle fluxes. On the basis of fluxes of POC and PIC, productivity, export, and the distributions of nitrogen (NO3), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and alkalinity, a number of indices defined to estimate the efficiency of carbon transport away from the atmosphere are applied. With differing success for the respective indices the results show that the more efficient the vertical transport of organic carbon toward depth, the lower the surface ocean pCO(2), the higher the air-sea CO2 flux, and the stronger the increase in the oceanic inventory of DIC. Along with POC flux it is important to consider variations in PIC flux, as the net effect of particle flux reorganizations on surface ocean pCO(2) is a combination of changes in DIC and alkalinity. The results demonstrate that changes in the mechanistic formulation of vertical particle fluxes have direct and indirect effects on surface ocean pCO(2) and may thus interact with the atmospheric CO2 reservoir.

Variability of the ocean carbon cycle in response to the North Atlantic Oscillation

ABSTRACT Climate modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), representing internal variability of the climate system, influence the ocean carbon cycle and may mask trends in the sink of anthropogenic carbon. Here, utilising control runs of six fully coupled Earth System Models, the response of the ocean carbon cycle to the NAO is quantified. The dominating response, a seesaw pattern between the subtropical gyre and the subpolar Northern Atlantic, is instantaneous (<3 months) and dynamically consistent over all models and with observations for a range of physical and biogeochemical variables. All models show asymmetric responses to NAO+ and NAO− forcing, implying non-linearity in the connection between NAO and the ocean carbon cycle. However, model differences in regional expression and magnitude and conflicting results with regard to air–sea flux and CO2 partial pressure remain. Typical NAO-driven variations are ±10 mmol/m3 in the surface concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity and ±8 ppm in the air–sea partial pressure difference. The effect on the basin-wide air–sea CO2 flux is small due to compensating fluxes on the sub-basin scale. Two models show a reduced carbon sink in the north-eastern North Atlantic during negative NAO phases, qualitatively in accordance with the observed decline during a phase of predominantly negative NAO. The results indicate that wind-driven dynamics are the main driver of the response to the NAO, which – via vertical mixing, upwelling and the associated entrainment of dissolved inorganic carbon and nutrients – leave an imprint on surface pCO2 and the air–sea CO2 flux as well as on biological export production, pH and the calcium carbonate saturation state. The biogeochemical response to the NAO is predominantly governed by vertical exchange between the surface and the thermocline; large-scale horizontal transport mechanisms are of minor importance.

Experimental strategies to assess the biological ramifications of multiple drivers of global ocean change – a review

Marine life is controlled by multiple physical and chemical drivers and by diverse ecological processes. Many of these oceanic properties are being altered by climate change and other anthropogenic pressures. Hence, identifying the influences of multifaceted ocean change, from local to global scales, is a complex task. To guide policy-making and make projections of the future of the marine biosphere, it is essential to understand biological responses at physiological, evolutionary and ecological levels. Here, we contrast and compare different approaches to multiple driver experiments that aim to elucidate biological responses to a complex matrix of ocean global change. We present the benefits and the challenges of each approach with a focus on marine research, and guidelines to navigate through these different categories to help identify strategies that might best address research questions in fundamental physiology, experimental evolutionary biology and community ecology. Our review reveals that the field of multiple driver research is being pulled in complementary directions: the need for reductionist approaches to obtain process-oriented, mechanistic understanding and a requirement to quantify responses to projected future scenarios of ocean change. We conclude the review with recommendations on how best to align different experimental approaches to contribute fundamental information needed for science-based policy formulation.

Manganese in the west Atlantic Ocean in the context of the first global ocean circulation model of manganese

Abstract. Dissolved manganese (Mn) is a biologically essential element. Moreover, its oxidised form is involved in removing itself and several other trace elements from ocean waters. Here we report the longest thus far (17 500 km length) full-depth ocean section of dissolved Mn in the west Atlantic Ocean, comprising 1320 data values of high accuracy. This is the GA02 transect that is part of the GEOTRACES programme, which aims to understand trace element distributions. The goal of this study is to combine these new observations with new, state-of-the-art, modelling to give a first assessment of the main sources and redistribution of Mn throughout the ocean. To this end, we simulate the distribution of dissolved Mn using a global-scale circulation model. This first model includes simple parameterisations to account for the sources, processes and sinks of Mn in the ocean. Oxidation and (photo)reduction, aggregation and settling, as well as biological uptake and remineralisation by plankton are included in the model. Our model provides, together with the observations, the following insights: – The high surface concentrations of manganese are caused by the combination of photoreduction and sources contributing to the upper ocean. The most important sources are sediments, dust, and, more locally, rivers. – Observations and model simulations suggest that surface Mn in the Atlantic Ocean moves downwards into the southward-flowing North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), but because of strong removal rates there is no elevated concentration of Mn visible any more in the NADW south of 40° N. – The model predicts lower dissolved Mn in surface waters of the Pacific Ocean than the observed concentrations. The intense oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in subsurface waters is deemed to be a major source of dissolved Mn also mixing upwards into surface waters, but the OMZ is not well represented by the model. Improved high-resolution simulation of the OMZ may solve this problem. – There is a mainly homogeneous background concentration of dissolved Mn of about 0.10–0.15 nM throughout most of the deep ocean. The model reproduces this by means of a threshold on particulate manganese oxides of 25 pM, suggesting that a minimal concentration of particulate Mn is needed before aggregation and removal become efficient. – The observed distinct hydrothermal signals are produced by assuming both a strong source and a strong removal of Mn near hydrothermal vents.

Net primary productivity estimates and environmental variables in the Arctic Ocean: An assessment of coupled physical-biogeochemical models

The relative skill of 21 regional and global biogeochemical models was assessed in terms of how well the models reproduced observed net primary productivity (NPP) and environmental variables such as nitrate concentration (NO3), mixed layer depth (MLD), euphotic layer depth (Zeu), and sea ice concentration, by comparing results against a newly updated, quality-controlled in situ NPP database for the Arctic Ocean (1959–2011). The models broadly captured the spatial features of integrated NPP (iNPP) on a pan-Arctic scale. Most models underestimated iNPP by varying degrees in spite of overestimating surface NO3, MLD, and Zeu throughout the regions. Among the models, iNPP exhibited little difference over sea ice condition (ice-free versus ice-influenced) and bottom depth (shelf versus deep ocean). The models performed relatively well for the most recent decade and toward the end of Arctic summer. In the Barents and Greenland Seas, regional model skill of surface NO3 was best associated with how well MLD was reproduced. Regionally, iNPP was relatively well simulated in the Beaufort Sea and the central Arctic Basin, where in situ NPP is low and nutrients are mostly depleted. Models performed less well at simulating iNPP in the Greenland and Chukchi Seas, despite the higher model skill in MLD and sea ice concentration, respectively. iNPP model skill was constrained by different factors in different Arctic Ocean regions. Our study suggests that better parameterization of biological and ecological microbial rates (phytoplankton growth and zooplankton grazing) are needed for improved Arctic Ocean biogeochemical modeling.