Marion Shattock

Combined Analysis of Autoantibodies Improves Prediction of IDDM in Islet Cell Antibody-Positive Relatives

Prediction of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) is still largely based on islet cell antibodies (ICAs), but it may be improved by combined analysis with other humoral markers. We examined autoantibodies to insulin (IAAs), glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD), and Mr 37,000 and Mr 40,000 fragments of islet antigens (37 and 40 kDa) together with ICA subtypes in 101 family members with ICAs ≥10 Juvenile Diabetes Foundation units (JDF U) followed for up to 14 years, of whom 18 have developed IDDM. Life-table analysis showed a 43% risk of IDDM within 10 years for those with ICAs ≥10 JDF U, rising to 53% for those with ICAs ≥20 JDF U. The risk for ICAs ≥10 JDF U was 62% in the family members in the youngest age quartile (<13.2 years) and fell with increasing age to 4% in those >40.7 years of age (P = 0.03). ICAs ≥10 JDF U combined with IAAs gave a risk of 84% (P = 0.03 compared with IAA−), and ICAs ≥10 JDF U combined with GAD antibodies gave a risk of 61% (P = 0.018). The risk for ICAs >10 JDF U with antibodies to 37-kDa antigen was 76% (P < 0.0001). Risk increased with the number of autoantibodies, from 8% for ICAs alone to 88% with >3 autoantibodies (14 cases detected) (P < 0.0001). The increased risk associated with multiple antibodies was observed independent of age. The median time to diagnosis in those with antibodies to 37- and/or 40-kDa antigen was 1.5 years, compared with 7.2 years in those with IAAs and GAD antibodies in the absence of antibodies to 37/40 kDa. The intensity and range of the autoantibody response offers better overall prediction of diabetes than any single autoantibody specificity, although antibodies to 37-/40-kDa antigens may prove to be useful markers of early clinical onset. We found that 78% of future cases of IDDM in ICA+ relatives came from the 27% with multiple autoantibodies and estimate that 88% of individuals within this category will need insulin treatment within 10 years. We propose a simple predictive strategy based on these observations.

Quantification of islet-cell antibodies and prediction of insulin-dependent diabetes

The sensitivity and predictive value of islet-cell antibodies (ICA) for the future onset of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) were determined in 719 first-degree relatives of IDDM patients. ICA were quantified in Juvenile Diabetes Foundation (JDF) units, by indirect immunofluorescence in serum samples taken during prospective follow-up of up to 10.5 years. The threshold of ICA detection was 4 JDF units. ICA were detected in the first sample of 26 (3.3%) of the relatives, compared with 12 (2.2%) of 540 controls (298 blood donors and 242 healthy children). ICA were detected in follow-up samples from a further 14 relatives. IDDM developed in 14 (35%) of the 40 relatives with detectable ICA at any time and in 2 (0.3%) relatives without detectable ICA. In all 5 relatives with peak ICA levels above 80 JDF units IDDM developed within follow-up of 7 years; survival without IDDM at 10 years was 27% among relatives with peak ICA levels of 20-80 JDF units and 82% for peak ICA levels of 4-20. The predictive value for IDDM development within 10 years ranged from 40% (threshold 4 JDF units) to 100% (80 JDF units) and the sensitivity from 31% (80 JDF units) to 88% (4 JDF units).

Genetic heterogeneity of autoimmune diabetes: age of presentation in adults is influenced by HLA DRB1 and DQB1 genotypes (UKPDS 43)

Aims/hypothesis. Juvenile-onset, insulin-dependent diabetes is associated with islet cell antibodies and with specific “high-risk” HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1 genotypes. Patients with Type II (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus can have islet-related antibodies, but the genotypic associations at different ages of onset have not been evaluated. Our aim was to determine (i) the prevalence of DRB1 and DQB1 genotypes in patients at diagnosis of Type II diabetes at different ages from 25 to 65 years compared with the general population, and (ii) whether the presence of islet cell antibodies (ICA) or glutamic acid decarboxylase antibodies (GADA) or both by age is associated with different DRB1 and DQB1 genotypes. Methods. The antibodies to islet cells and those to glutamic acid decarboxylase were measured in 1712 white Caucasian diabetic subjects at diagnosis of diabetes and they were genotyped for HLA DRB1*03 and DRB1*04 and the high-risk DRB1*04-DQB1* 0302 haplotype. To assess over-representation of high-risk alleles for Type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus, the prevalence of high-risk alleles in diabetic patients was expressed relative to the prevalence of low-risk alleles, non-DR3/non-DR4, that provided a reference denominator in both the diabetic patients and in 200 non-diabetic control subjects. The prevalence of ICA or GADA or both in patients with different HLA genotypes was assessed in those diagnosed in four age groups, 25–34 years, 35–44 years, 45–54 years and 55–65 years. Results. In Type II diabetic patients presenting at ages 25–34, 35–44 and 45–54 years, there was an increased prevalence of DR3/DR4 compared with the general population with approximately 6.5-fold, 2.9-fold, 2.1-fold over-representation, respectively (p < 0.0001, < 0.01, < 0.05) but this was not found in those aged 55–65 years old. In the group aged 25–34 years, 32 % of patients with ICA or GADA or both had DRB1*03/DRB1*04-DQB1*0302 compared with 10 % in those aged 55–65 years and expected 3 % prevalence. Conversely, only 14 % of those aged 25–34 years with antibodies had non-DR3/non-DR4, compared with 35 % in those aged 55–65 years. There was thus pronounced age heterogeneity in DRB1 and DQB1 predisposition to Type II diabetes. The antibodies displaced DRB1 or DQB1 genotypes in the multivariate model for requiring insulin therapy by 6 years of follow-up. Conclusion/hypothesis. The age of presentation of Type I diabetes in adulthood was in part dependent on the DRB1/DQB1 genotype. Islet cell antibodies and glutamic acid decarboxylase antibodies were strongly associated with DRB1*03/DRB1*04-DQB1*0302 in early adulthood but showed little relation with specific HLA genotypes after the age of 55 years. [Diabetologia (1999) 42: 608–616]

Can Islet Cell Antibodies Predict IDDM in the General Population

Objective— To evaluate the likely prognostic significance of ICAs in children with no family history of IDDM. Research Design and Methods— We examined the prevalence of ICAs in 2925 English schoolchildren aged 9–13 yr and in 274 age-matched siblings of children with diabetes from the same region, and we compared the estimated risk of progression to diabetes within 10 yr in the two groups. Results— ICAs were present at levels ≥ 4 JDF U in 2.8% of schoolchildren and 6.6% of siblings and at ≥ 20 JDF U in 0.8% of schoolchildren and 2.2% of siblings. Although ICAs are only 2–3 times more prevalent in siblings than schoolchildren, the estimated cumulative risk that siblings will progress to diabetes by age 21 is 13 times greater (2.8 vs. 0.21%). Conclusions— ICAs are unexpectedly prevalent in English schoolchildren, but only a small minority, with this evidence of immune activation directed against islet cells, will progress to diabetes. Although ICAs alone have limited predictive value in the general population, combining two or more predictive tests in series could achieve a level of prediction equivalent to that now obtained in first-degree relatives.

Assessment of precision, concordance, specificity, and sensitivity of islet cell antibody measurement in 41 assays

SummaryForty-one assays were analysed at the 3rd International Workshop on the standardisation of islet cell antibodies. Analysis of precision demonstrated assays consistently detecting blind duplicates within one doubling dilution and capable of discriminating one doubling dilution differences in islet cell antibody concentration. Some assays, however, reported duplicates discrepantly by more than seven doubling dilutions, and consequently could not distinguish even large quantities of islet cell antibodies. Precision was best in assays from laboratories which had participated in all three Standardisation Workshops and was not dependent upon methodology. The use of the Juvenile, Diabetes Foundation reference islet cell antibody standard and standard curves reduced the scatter of results, and was best amongst assays with better precision. Twenty-seven assays reported all ten blood donor sera as negative. However, 14 assays did not, and specificity (negativity in health) was <50% in three assays. Low specificity was strongly associated with poor precision. The detection limit of assays ranged from <5 to 50 JDF units and was partially dependent upon methodology. Assays incorporating extended incubation had the lowest detection limits without a decrease in the specificity of the ten blood donor sera. Precise quantification is fundamental for the standardisation and comparability of islet cell antibodies. Precise quantitative assays have been identified and reference standards and common units established.