Marjolein van Ballegooijen

Colonoscopic Polypectomy and Long-Term Prevention of Colorectal-Cancer Deaths

BACKGROUND In the National Polyp Study (NPS), colorectal cancer was prevented by colonoscopic removal of adenomatous polyps. We evaluated the long-term effect of colonoscopic polypectomy in a study on mortality from colorectal cancer. METHODS We included in this analysis all patients prospectively referred for initial colonoscopy (between 1980 and 1990) at NPS clinical centers who had polyps (adenomas and nonadenomas). The National Death Index was used to identify deaths and to determine the cause of death; follow-up time was as long as 23 years. Mortality from colorectal cancer among patients with adenomas removed was compared with the expected incidence-based mortality from colorectal cancer in the general population, as estimated from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, and with the observed mortality from colorectal cancer among patients with nonadenomatous polyps (internal control group). RESULTS Among 2602 patients who had adenomas removed during participation in the study, after a median of 15.8 years, 1246 patients had died from any cause and 12 had died from colorectal cancer. Given an estimated 25.4 expected deaths from colorectal cancer in the general population, the standardized incidence-based mortality ratio was 0.47 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26 to 0.80) with colonoscopic polypectomy, suggesting a 53% reduction in mortality. Mortality from colorectal cancer was similar among patients with adenomas and those with nonadenomatous polyps during the first 10 years after polypectomy (relative risk, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.1 to 10.6). CONCLUSIONS These findings support the hypothesis that colonoscopic removal of adenomatous polyps prevents death from colorectal cancer. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute and others.).

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975-2006, Featuring Colorectal Cancer Trends and Impact of Interventions (Risk Factors, Screening, and Treatment) to Reduce Future Rates

The American Cancer Society, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updated information regarding cancer occurrence and trends in the United States. This years report includes trends in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and death rates and highlights the use of microsimulation modeling as a tool for interpreting past trends and projecting future trends to assist in cancer control planning and policy decisions.

Evaluating Test Strategies for Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Decision Analysis for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force

Despite recent declines in both incidence and mortality (1), colorectal cancer remains the second most common cause of death from cancer in the United States (2). Screening for colorectal cancer reduces mortality by allowing physicians to detect cancer at earlier, more treatable stages, as well as to identify and remove adenomatous polyps (asymptomatic benign precursor lesions that may lead to colorectal cancer). Many tests are available for screening, such as fecal occult blood tests (FOBTs), flexible sigmoidoscopy, and colonoscopy. Screening with FOBT (Hemoccult II, Beckman Coulter, Fullerton, California) has been shown to reduce colorectal cancer mortality by 15% to 33% in randomized, controlled trials (35), and screening with more sensitive FOBTs, flexible sigmoidoscopy, colonoscopy, or combinations of these tests may reduce the burden of colorectal cancer even more (6, 7). In the absence of adequate clinical trial data on several recommended screening strategies, microsimulation modeling can provide guidance on the risks, benefits, and testing resources required for different screening strategies to reduce the burden of colorectal cancer. In July 2002, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) concluded that there was sufficient evidence to recommend strongly that all average-risk adults 50 years of age or older should be offered colorectal cancer screening (8). However, the logistics of screening, such as the type of screening test, screening interval, and age at which to stop screening, were not evaluated in terms of the balance of benefits and potential harms. The USPSTF has again addressed recommendations for colorectal cancer screening with a systematic review of the evidence (9) on screening tests. For this assessment, the USPSTF requested a decision analysis to project expected outcomes of various strategies for colorectal cancer screening. Two independent microsimulation modeling groups from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET), funded by the National Cancer Institute, used a comparative modeling approach to compare life-years gained relative to resource use of different strategies for colorectal cancer screening. Methods We used 2 microsimulation models, MISCAN (MIcrosimulation Screening Analysis) (1012) and SimCRC (Simulation Model of Colorectal Cancer) (13), to estimate the life-years gained relative to no screening and the colonoscopies required (that is, an indicator for resource use and risk for complications) for different colorectal cancer screening strategies defined by test, age at which to begin screening, age at which to stop screening, and screening interval. We aimed to identify a set of recommendable strategies with similar clinical benefit and an efficient use of colonoscopy resources. Using 2 models (that is, a comparative modeling approach) adds credibility to the results and serves as a sensitivity analysis on the underlying structural assumptions of the models, particularly pertaining to the unobservable natural history of colorectal cancer. Microsimulation Models The Appendix describes the MISCAN and SimCRC models, and standardized model profiles are available at cisnet.cancer.gov/profiles/. In brief, both models simulate the life histories of a large population of individuals from birth to death. As each individual ages, there is a chance that an adenoma will develop. One or more adenomas can occur in an individual, and each adenoma can independently develop into preclinical (that is, undiagnosed) colorectal cancer (Figure 1). The risk for developing an adenoma depends on age, sex, and baseline individual risk. The models track the location and size of each adenoma; these characteristics influence disease progression and the chance that the adenoma will be found by screening. The size of adenomas can progress from small (5 mm) to medium (6 to 9 mm) to large (10 mm). Some adenomas eventually become malignant, transforming to stage I preclinical cancer. Preclinical cancer has a chance of progressing through stages I to IV and may be diagnosed by symptoms at any stage. Survivorship after diagnosis depends on the stage of disease. Figure 1. Natural history of disease as modeled by the Microsimulation Screening Analysis and Simulation Model of Colorectal Cancer models. The opportunity to intervene in the natural history through screening is noted. The natural history component of each model was calibrated to 19751979 clinical incidence data (14) and adenoma prevalence from autopsy studies in the same period (1524). We used this period because incidence rates and adenoma prevalence had not yet been affected by screening. We corrected the adenoma prevalence for studies of non-U.S. populations by using standardized colorectal cancer incidence ratios. The models use all-cause mortality estimates from the U.S. life tables and stage-specific data on colorectal cancer survival from the 19961999 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program (14). Table 1 compares outcomes from the natural history components of the models. Table 1. Comparison of the Natural History Outcomes from the Microsimulation Screening Analysis (MISCAN) and Simulation Model of Colorectal Cancer (SimCRC) Models The effectiveness of a screening strategy is modeled through a tests ability to detect lesions (that is, adenomas or preclinical cancer). Once screening is introduced, a simulated person who has an underlying lesion has a chance of having it detected during a screening round depending on the sensitivity of the test for that lesion and whether the lesion is within the reach of the test. Screened persons without an underlying lesion can have a false-positive test result and undergo unnecessary follow-up colonoscopy. Hyperplastic polyps are not modeled explicitly, but their detection is reflected in the specificity of the screening tests. The models incorporate the risk for fatal complications associated with perforation during colonoscopy. Both models have been validated against the long-term reductions in incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer with annual FOBT reported in the Minnesota Colon Cancer Control Study (3, 25, 26) and show good concordance with the trial results. Strategies for Colorectal Cancer Screening In consultation with the USPSTF, we included the following basic strategies: 1) no screening, 2) colonoscopy, 3) FOBT (Hemoccult II, Hemoccult SENSA [Beckman Coulter], or fecal immunochemical testing), 4) flexible sigmoidoscopy (with biopsy), and 5) flexible sigmoidoscopy combined with Hemoccult SENSA. For each basic strategy, we evaluated start ages of 40, 50, and 60 years and stop ages of 75 and 85 years. For the FOBT strategies, we considered screening intervals of 1, 2, and 3 years, and for the sigmoidoscopy and colonoscopy strategies, we considered intervals of 5, 10, and 20 years. These variations resulted in 145 strategies: 90 single-test strategies, 54 combination-test strategies, and 1 no-screening strategy. The stop age reflects the oldest possible age at which to screen, but the actual stopping age is dictated by the start age and screening interval. In the base case, we assumed 100% adherence for screening tests, follow-up of positive findings, and surveillance of persons found to have adenomas. Individuals with a positive FOBT result or with an adenoma detected by sigmoidoscopy were referred for follow-up colonoscopy. For years in which both tests were due for the combined strategy, the FOBT was performed first; if the result was positive, the patient was referred for follow-up colonoscopy. In those years, flexible sigmoidoscopy was done only for patients with a negative FOBT result. If findings on follow-up colonoscopy were negative, the individual was assumed to undergo subsequent screening with colonoscopy with a 10-year interval (as long as results of the repeated colonoscopy were negative) and did not return to the initial screening schedule, as is the recommendation of the U.S. Multi-Society Task Force and American Cancer Society (7, 27). All individuals with an adenoma detected were followed with colonoscopy surveillance per the Multi-Society guidelines (27, 28). The surveillance interval depended on the number and size of the adenomas detected on the last colonoscopy; it ranged from 3 to 5 years and was assumed to continue for the remainder of the persons lifetime. We estimated the test characteristics of colorectal cancer screening from a review of the available literature (Table 2) (29). We conducted this review independently of and parallel in time with the systematic evidence review performed for the USPSTF (9). Table 2. Test Characteristics Used in the Microsimulation Screening Analysis and Simulation Model of Colorectal Cancer Models Evaluation of Outcomes Determination of Efficient Strategies The most effective strategy was defined as the one with the greatest life-years gained relative to no screening. However, it is important to consider the relative intensity of test use required to achieve those gains. The more effective strategies tended to be associated with more colonoscopies on average in a persons lifetime, which translated into an increased risk for colonoscopy-related complications. We used an approach that mirrors that of cost-effectiveness analysis (30) to identify the set of efficient, or dominant, strategies within each test category. A strategy was considered dominant when no other strategy or combination of strategies provided more life-years with the same number of colonoscopies. We conducted this analysis separately for each of the 5 basic screening strategies because the number of noncolonoscopy tests differed by strategy. We then ranked the efficient screening strategies by increasing effectiveness and calculated the incremental number of colonoscopies (COL) per 1000, the incremental life-years gained (LYG) per 1000, and the incremental number of colonoscopies necessary to achieve 1 year of life (COL/

Long term predictive values of cytology and human papillomavirus testing in cervical cancer screening: joint European cohort study.

Objective To obtain large scale and generalisable data on the long term predictive value of cytology and human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for development of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer (CIN3+). Design Multinational cohort study with joint database analysis. Setting Seven primary HPV screening studies in six European countries. Participants 24 295 women attending cervical screening enrolled into HPV screening trials who had at least one cervical cytology or histopathology examination during follow-up. Main outcome measure Long term cumulative incidence of CIN3+. Results The cumulative incidence rate of CIN3+ after six years was considerably lower among women negative for HPV at baseline (0.27%, 95% confidence interval 0.12% to 0.45%) than among women with negative results on cytology (0.97%, 0.53% to 1.34%)). By comparison, the cumulative incidence rate for women with negative cytology results at the most commonly recommended screening interval in Europe (three years) was 0.51% (0.23% to 0.77%). The cumulative incidence rate among women with negative cytology results who were positive for HPV increased continuously over time, reaching 10% at six years, whereas the rate among women with positive cytology results who were negative for HPV remained below 3%. Conclusions A consistently low six year cumulative incidence rate of CIN3+ among women negative for HPV suggests that cervical screening strategies in which women are screened for HPV every six years are safe and effective.

POBASCAM, a population‐based randomized controlled trial for implementation of high‐risk HPV testing in cervical screening: Design, methods and baseline data of 44,102 women

Cytological cervical screening is rather inefficient because of relatively high proportions of false negative and false positive smears. To evaluate the efficiency of high‐risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) testing, by GP5+/6+ PCR‐enzyme immunoassay (EIA), in conjunction with cytology (Intervention Group) to that of the classical cytology (Control Group), we initiated the Population Based Screening Study Amsterdam (POBASCAM). POBASCAM is a population‐based randomized controlled trial for implementation of hrHPV testing in cervical screening. The outcome measure is the proportion of histologically confirmed ≥CIN3 lesions in each study arm up to and including the next screening round after 5 years. We present the design, methods and baseline data of POBASCAM. When, in the next 5 years, the follow‐up will be completed, the data obtained will be used in model studies, including a cost‐effectiveness study, to advise the Dutch Ministry of Public Health in deciding whether cervical screening should be based on combined hrHPV and cytology testing instead of cytology alone. Between January 1999 and September 2002, 44,102 women (mean age = 42.8 years; range = 29–61) that participated in the regular Dutch screening program were included in our study. In the Intervention Group the distribution of cytology and hrHPV by cytology class was as follows: normal cytology 96.6% (3.6% hrHPV positive); borderline and mild dyskaryosis (BMD) 2.5% (34.6% hrHPV positive); and moderate dyskaryosis or worse (>BMD) 0.8% (88.3% hrHPV positive), i.e., 0.4% moderate dyskaryosis (82.9% hrHPV positive), 0.3% severe dyskaryosis (92.5% hrHPV positive), 0.1% carcinoma in situ (95.2% hrHPV positive), <0.1% suspected for invasive cancer (hrHPV positive 100.0%). In the Control Group 96.5% of the women had normal cytology, 2.4% BMD and 0.8% >BMD, i.e., 0.4% moderate dyskaryosis, 0.3% severe dyskaryosis, 0.1% carcinoma in situ, <0.1% suspected for invasive cancer. The presence of hrHPV was age‐dependent, decreasing from 12.0% at 29–33 years to 2.4% at 59–61 years. Among women with a positive hrHPV test, the prevalence of BMD was age‐dependent ranging from 20.2% at 29–33 years to 7.8% at 54–58 years. In contrast, the risk of >BMD of 13.7% among women with a positive hrHPV test was not age‐dependent. Our study indicates that large‐scale hrHPV testing by GP5+/6+ PCR‐EIA in the setting of population‐based cervical screening is practically feasible, is accepted by both participating women and general practitioners and yields highly reproducible results.

Participation and yield of colonoscopy versus non-cathartic CT colonography in population-based screening for colorectal cancer: a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Screening for colorectal cancer is widely recommended, but the preferred strategy remains unidentified. We aimed to compare participation and diagnostic yield between screening with colonoscopy and with non-cathartic CT colonography. METHODS Members of the general population, aged 50-75 years, and living in the regions of Amsterdam or Rotterdam, identified via the registries of the regional municipal administration, were randomly allocated (2:1) to be invited for primary screening for colorectal cancer by colonoscopy or by CT colonography. Randomisation was done per household with a minimisation algorithm based on age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Invitations were sent between June 8, 2009, and Aug 16, 2010. Participants assigned to CT colonography who were found to have one or more large lesions (≥10 mm) were offered colonoscopy; those with 6-9 mm lesions were offered surveillance CT colonography. The primary outcome was the participation rate, defined as number of invitees undergoing the examination relative to the total number of invitees. Diagnostic yield was calculated as number of participants with advanced neoplasia relative to the total number of invitees. Invitees and screening centre employees were not masked to allocation. This trial is registered in the Dutch trial register, number NTR1829. FINDINGS 1276 (22%) of 5924 colonoscopy invitees participated, compared with 982 (34%) of 2920 CT colonography invitees (relative risk [RR] 1·56, 95% CI 1·46-1·68; p<0·0001). Of the participants in the colonoscopy group, 111 (9%) had advanced neoplasia of whom seven (<1%) had a carcinoma. Of CT colonography participants, 84 (9%) were offered colonoscopy, of whom 60 (6%) had advanced neoplasia of whom five (<1%) had a carcinoma; 82 (8%) were offered surveillance. The diagnostic yield for all advanced neoplasia was 8·7 per 100 participants for colonoscopy versus 6·1 per 100 for CT colonography (RR 1·46, 95% CI 1·06-2·03; p=0·02) and 1·9 per 100 invitees for colonoscopy and 2·1 per 100 invitees for CT colonography (RR 0·91, 0·66-2·03; p=0·56). The diagnostic yield for advanced neoplasia of 10 mm or more was 1·5 per 100 invitees for colonoscopy and 2·0 per 100 invitees for CT colonography, respectively (RR 0·74, 95% CI 0·53-1·03; p=0·07). Serious adverse events related to the screening procedure were post-polypectomy bleedings: two in the colonoscopy group and three in the CT colonography group. INTERPRETATION Participation in colorectal cancer screening with CT colonography was significantly better than with colonoscopy, but colonoscopy identified significantly more advanced neoplasia per 100 participants than did CT colonography. The diagnostic yield for advanced neoplasia per 100 invitees was similar for both strategies, indicating that both techniques can be used for population-based screening for colorectal cancer. Other factors such as cost-effectiveness and perceived burden should be taken into account when deciding which technique is preferable. FUNDING Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development, Centre for Translational Molecular Medicine, and the Nuts Ohra Foundation.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of colorectal screening of hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal carcinoma gene carriers

It has been estimated that the prevalence of carriers of a mutated mismatch repair (MMR) gene among the general population in Western countries is between 5 and 50 per 10,000. These carriers have a risk of >85% of developing colorectal carcinoma (CRC) and therefore need careful follow‐up. The objective of this study was to analyze the cost‐effectiveness of CRC surveillance for carriers of a mutated MMR gene.

How much can current interventions reduce colorectal cancer mortality in the U.S.? Mortality projections for scenarios of risk-factor modification, screening, and treatment

Although colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer death in the U.S., available interventions to reduce CRC mortality are disseminated only partially throughout the population. This study assessed the potential reduction in CRC mortality that may be achieved through further dissemination of current interventions for risk‐factor modification, screening, and treatment.

Effect of Rising Chemotherapy Costs on the Cost Savings of Colorectal Cancer Screening

BACKGROUND Although colorectal cancer screening is cost-effective, it requires a considerable net investment by governments or insurance companies. If screening was cost saving, governments and insurance companies might be more inclined to invest in colorectal cancer screening programs. We examined whether colorectal cancer screening would become cost saving with the widespread use of the newer, more expensive chemotherapies. METHODS We used the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to assess whether widespread use of new chemotherapies would affect the treatment savings of colorectal cancer screening in the general population. We considered three scenarios for chemotherapy use: the past, the present, and the near future. We assumed that survival improved and treatment costs for patients diagnosed with advanced stages of colorectal cancer increased over the scenarios. Screening strategies considered were annual guaiac fecal occult blood testing (FOBT), annual immunochemical FOBT, sigmoidoscopy every 5 years, colonoscopy every 10 years, and the combination of sigmoidoscopy every 5 years and annual guaiac FOBT. Analyses were conducted from the perspective of the health-care system for a cohort of 50-year-old individuals who were at average risk of colorectal cancer and were screened with 100% adherence from age 50 years to age 80 years and followed up until death. RESULTS Compared with no screening, the treatment savings from preventing advanced colorectal cancer and colorectal cancer deaths by screening more than doubled with the widespread use of new chemotherapies. The lifetime average treatment savings were larger than the lifetime average screening costs for screening with Hemoccult II, immunochemical FOBT, sigmoidoscopy, and the combination of sigmoidoscopy and Hemoccult II (average savings vs costs per individual in the population: Hemoccult II,

Human papillomavirus testing on self-sampled cervicovaginal brushes: An effective alternative to protect nonresponders in cervical screening programs

1398 vs