Mark A. Clilverd

Geomagnetic activity and polar surface air temperature variability

Here we use the ERA-40 and ECMWF operational surface level air temperature data sets from 1957 to 2006 to examine polar temperature variations during years with different levels of geomagnetic activity, as defined by the A(p) index. Previous modeling work has suggested that NOx produced at high latitudes by energetic particle precipitation can eventually lead to detectable changes in surface air temperatures (SATs). We find that during winter months, polar SATs in years with high A(p) index are different than in years with low A(p) index; the differences are statistically significant at the 2-sigma level and range up to about +/- 4.5 K, depending on location. The temperature differences are larger when years with wintertime Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are excluded. We take into account solar irradiance variations, unlike previous analyses of geomagnetic effects in ERA-40 and operational data. Although we cannot conclusively show that the polar SAT patterns are physically linked by geomagnetic activity, we conclude that geomagnetic activity likely plays a role in modulating wintertime surface air temperatures. We tested our SAT results against variation in the Quasi Biennial Oscillation, the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. The results suggested that these were not driving the observed polar SAT variability. However, significant uncertainty is introduced by the Northern Annular Mode, and we cannot robustly exclude a chance linkage between sea surface temperature variability and geomagnetic activity.

Monitoring spatial and temporal variations in the dayside plasmasphere using geomagnetic field line resonances

It is well known that the resonant frequency of geomagnetic field lines is determined by the magnetic field and plasma density. We used cross-phase and related methods to determine the field line resonance frequency across 2.4≤<L≤4.5 in the Northern Hemisphere at 78°–106° magnetic longitude and centered on L=2.8 in the Southern Hemisphere at 226° magnetic longitude, for several days in October and November 1990. The temporal and spatial variation in plasma mass density was thus determined and compared with VLF whistler measurements of electron densities at similar times and locations. The plasma mass loading was estimated and found to be low, corresponding to 5–10% He+ on the days examined. The plasma mass density is described by a law of the form (R/Req)−p, where p is in the range 3–6 but shows considerable temporal variation, for example, in response to changes in magnetic activity. Other features that were observed include diurnal trends such as the sunrise enhancement in plasma density at low latitudes, latitude-dependent substorm refilling effects, shelves in the plasma density versus L profile, and a longitudinal asymmetry in plasma density. We can also monitor motion of the plasmapause across the station array. Properties of the resonance were examined, including the resonance size, Q, and damping. Finally, we note the appearance of fine structure in power spectra at these latitudes, suggesting that magnetospheric waveguide or cavity modes may be important in selecting wave frequencies.

Missing driver in the Sun-Earth connection from energetic electron precipitation impacts mesospheric ozone.

Energetic electron precipitation (EEP) from the Earth’s outer radiation belt continuously affects the chemical composition of the polar mesosphere. EEP can contribute to catalytic ozone loss in the mesosphere through ionization and enhanced production of odd hydrogen. However, the long-term mesospheric ozone variability caused by EEP has not been quantified or confirmed to date. Here we show, using observations from three different satellite instruments, that EEP events strongly affect ozone at 60–80 km, leading to extremely large (up to 90%) short-term ozone depletion. This impact is comparable to that of large, but much less frequent, solar proton events. On solar cycle timescales, we find that EEP causes ozone variations of up to 34% at 70–80 km. With such a magnitude, it is reasonable to suspect that EEP could be an important part of solar influence on the atmosphere and climate system.

Arctic and Antarctic polar winter NOx and energetic particle precipitation in 2002-2006

Received 19 February 2007; revised 8 May 2007; accepted 16 May 2007; published 26 June 2007. [1] We report GOMOS nighttime observations of middle atmosphere NO2 and O3 profiles during eight recent polar winters in the Arctic and Antarctic. The NO2 measurements are used to study the effects of energetic particle precipitation and further downward transport of polar NOx. During seven of the eight observed winters NOx enhancements occur in goodcorrelation withlevelsofenhancedhigh-energyparticle precipitation and/or geomagnetic activity as indicated by the Ap index. We find a nearly linear relationship between the average winter time Ap index and upper stratospheric polar winterNO2columndensityinbothhemispheres.IntheArctic winter 2005–2006 the NOx enhancement is higher than expected from the geomagnetic conditions, indicating the importance of changing meteorological conditions.

The annual variation in quiet time plasmaspheric electron density, determined from whistler mode group delays

Abstract Whistler mode group delays from the VLF Doppler experiment at Faraday, Antarctica (65°S, 64°W) show an annual variation that has a maximum in December and a minimum in June/July. Assuming signal propagation at constant L (L = 2.5), this implies an annual equatorial electron density (Neq) variation, with December values 3 times higher than in June (during solar minimum—1986). This annual variation in Neq can be modelled from the combined ƒ o F2 medians at each end of the field line (Argentine Islands and Wallops Island), by assuming that diffusive equilibrium is maintained from the F2 layer to the equator over long (≥ 1 month) time scales during quiet magnetic conditions. The use of this model enables the longitude dependence of the annual Neq variation to be investigated. ƒ o F2 data from two other pairs of near-conjugate stations at ∼ 50°E and ∼ 180°E suggest that there are probably no other regions where there are such large annual variations in Neq at L = 2.5. Whistler mode group delays from a similar VLF Doppler experiment at Dunedin, New Zealand (45.8°S, 170.5°E) show an annual variation that is much smaller, and in agreement with the model results at that longitude. At Faraday during solar maximum conditions, the phase of the annual variation is similar to that observed at solar minimum, but the amplitude is smaller, the December–June ratio in Neq being about 2:1.

Lower ionospheric modification by lightning-EMP : Simulation of the night ionosphere over the United States

It has recently been suggested that successive intense lightning-electromagnetic pulse (EMP) events could cause significant large-scale changes to the properties of the nighttime lower ionosphere. In order to examine this quantitatively, data on lightning detected over the United States are combined with the output from a simulation code. During the course of a night strong lightning-EMP events can lead to significant (∼100% or even greater) increases in the electron density of the lower ionosphere, with the largest increases at ∼90 km altitude. Regions with significant decreases in electron density are also possible. It is shown that changes in the electron temperature of the lower ionosphere are unlikely to be significant. The time required to produce large-scale changes of ionospheric electron density above an active thunderstorm may explain the observation of a thunderstorm “modification time” before red sprite activity is initiated.

POES satellite observations of EMIC-wave driven relativistic electron precipitation during 1998-2010

[1] Using six Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES) satellites that have carried the Space Environment Module-2 instrument package, a total of 436,422 individual half-orbits between 1998 and 2010 were inspected by an automatic detection algorithm searching for electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) driven relativistic electron precipitation (REP). The algorithm searched for one of the key characteristics of EMIC-driven REP, identified as the simultaneity between spikes in the P1 (52 keV differential proton flux channel) and P6 (>800 keV electron channel). In all, 2331 proton precipitation associated REP (PPAREP) events were identified. The majority of events were observed at L-values within the outer radiation belt (3 < L < 7) and were more common in the dusk and night sectors as determined by magnetic local time. The majority of events occurred outside the plasmasphere, at L-values ~1 Re greater than the plasmapause location determined from two different statistical models. The events make up a subset of EMIC-driven proton spikes investigated by Sandanger et al. (2009), and potentially reflect different overall characteristics compared with proton spikes, particularly when comparing their location to that of the plasmapause, i.e., EMIC-driven proton precipitation inside the plasmapause, and potentially EMIC-driven REP outside the plasmapause. There was no clear relationship between the location of plasmaspheric plumes and the locations of the PPAREP events detected. Analysis of the PPAREP event occurrence indicates that high solar wind speed and high geomagnetic activity levels increase the likelihood of an event being detected. The peak PPAREP event occurrence was during the declining phase of solar cycle 23, consistent with the 2003 maximum in the geomagnetic activity index, Ap.

Solar flare induced ionospheric D-region enhancements from VLF amplitude observations

Abstract Enhancements of D-region electron densities caused by solar flares are determined from observations of VLF subionospheric amplitude changes and these enhancements are then related to the magnitudes of the X-ray fluxes measured by the GOES satellites. The electron densities are characterised by the two traditional parameters, H′ and β (being measures of the ionospheric height and the rate of increase of electron density with height, respectively), which are found by VLF radio modelling of the observed amplitudes using the NOSC Earth-ionosphere waveguide programs (LWPC and Modefinder) mainly on two paths, one short and one long. The short path measurements were made near Cambridge, UK, on the 18.3 kHz signals from the French transmitter 617 km to the south while the long path measurements were made near Dunedin, NZ, on the 24.8 kHz signals from NLK in Seattle, USA, 12.3 Mm across the Pacific Ocean. The observations include flares up to a magnitude of about M5 (5×10 −5 W m −2 at 0.1– 0.8 nm ) which gave VLF amplitude enhancements up to about 8 dB ; these corresponded, under near solar maximum conditions (1992), to a reduction in H′ from about 71 km down to about 63 km and an increase in β from 0.43 km −1 up to about 0.49 km −1 . The increased values of β during a flare are caused by the solar X-rays dominating all sources of ionisation during the flare in contrast with the normal unperturbed daytime values of β which are significantly lower than for a single solar UV or X-ray source due to the extra electrons from the normal galactic cosmic ray ionisation in the lowest parts of the D-region. This steady, normal (unperturbed) cosmic ray influence on β, and hence unperturbed VLF attenuation, is more marked at times of reduced solar Lyman-α flux in the D-region such as at solar minimum, high latitudes or early or late in the day, thus explaining the normal (unperturbed) higher VLF attenuation rates previously reported in these conditions.

Total solar eclipse effects on VLF signals: Observations and modeling

During the total solar eclipse observed in Europe on August 11, 1999, measurements were made of the amplitude and phase of four VLF transmitters in the frequency range 16–24 kHz. Five receiver sites were set up, and significant variations in phase and amplitude are reported for 17 paths, more than any previously during an eclipse. Distances from transmitter to receiver ranged from 90 to 14,510 km, although the majority were 10,000 km. Negative phase changes were observed on most paths, independent of path length. Although there was significant variation from path to path, the typical changes observed were ∼3 dB and ∼50°. The changes observed were modeled using the Long Wave Propagation Capability waveguide code. Maximum eclipse effects occurred when the Wait inverse scale height parameter β was 0.5 km−1 and the effective ionospheric height parameter H′ was 79 km, compared with β=0.43 km−1 and H′=71 km for normal daytime conditions. The resulting changes in modeled amplitude and phase show good agreement with the majority of the observations. The modeling undertaken provides an interpretation of why previous estimates of height change during eclipses have shown such a range of values. A D region gas-chemistry model was compared with electron concentration estimates inferred from the observations made during the solar eclipse. Quiet-day H′ and β parameters were used to define the initial ionospheric profile. The gas-chemistry model was then driven only by eclipse-related solar radiation levels. The calculated electron concentration values at 77 km altitude throughout the period of the solar eclipse show good agreement with the values determined from observations at all times, which suggests that a linear variation in electron production rate with solar ionizing radiation is reasonable. At times of minimum electron concentration the chemical model predicts that the D region profile would be parameterized by the same β and H′ as the LWPC model values, and rocket profiles, during totality and can be considered a validation of the chemical processes defined within the model.

Sunrise effects on VLF signals propagating over a long north-south path

We present a detailed study of the times of amplitude minima observed on the 12-Mm path from NAA (24 kHz, 1 MW, Cutler, Maine) to Faraday, Antarctica, during the period 1990–1995. (NAA is a naval transmitter call sign.) This study represents the first account of the effect of the sunrise terminator when it is parallel to a propagation path at some times of the year. Since the NAA-Faraday path is within 3° of the north-south meridian, parallel orientation happens close to the equinoxes, while the maximum angle of incidence occurs during the solstices. During the solstices the terminator takes a significant length of time to cross the entire propagation path, so modal conversion effects are observed over a range of hours. During the equinoxes, however, the leading edge of the night-day transition region crosses the whole propagation path within 20 min. The interpretation of the timing of minima is consistent with modal conversion taking place as the sunrise terminator crosses the NAA-Faraday transmission path at specific, consistent locations. The timing of minima is remarkably consistent from year to year. Long wave propagation modeling is used to show that the location of nightside minima at an altitude of 45–75 km in the subionospheric waveguide represents the location of the sunrise terminator on the great circle path when dayside minima occur.