Mark A. Collinson

Implications of mortality transition for primary health care in rural South Africa: a population-based surveillance study.

Summary Background In southern Africa, a substantial health transition is underway, with the heavy burden of chronic infectious illness (HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) paralleled by the growing threat of non-communicable diseases. We investigated the extent and nature of this health transition and considered the implications for primary health care. Methods Health and sociodemographic surveillance started in the Agincourt subdistrict, rural South Africa, in 1992. In a population of 70 000, deaths (n=6153) were rigorously monitored with a validated verbal autopsy instrument to establish probable cause. We used age-standardised analyses to investigate the dynamics of the mortality transition by comparing the period 2002–05 with 1992–94. Findings Mortality from chronic non-communicable disease ranked highest in adults aged 50 years and older in 1992–94 (41% of deaths [123/298]), whereas acute diarrhoea and malnutrition accounted for 37% of deaths (59/158) in children younger than 5 years. Since then, all-cause mortality increased substantially (risk ratio 1·87 [95% CI 1·73–2·03]; p<0·0001) because of a six-fold rise in deaths from infectious disease affecting most age and sex groups (5·98 [4·85–7·38]; p<0·0001), and a modest increase in deaths from non-communicable disease (1·15 [0·99–1·33]; p=0·066). The change in female risk of death from HIV and tuberculosis (15·06 [8·88–27·76]; p<0·0001) was almost double that of the change in male risk (8·13 [5·55–12·36]; p<0·0001). The burden of disorders requiring chronic care increased disproportionately compared with that requiring acute care (2·63 [2·30–3·01]; p<0·0001 vs 1·31 [1·12–1·55]; p=0·0003). Interpretation Mortality from non-communicable disease remains prominent despite the sustained increase in deaths from chronic infectious disease. The implications for primary health-care systems are substantial, with integrated chronic care based on scaled-up delivery of antiretroviral therapy needed to address this expanding burden. Funding The Wellcome Trust, UK; University of the Witwatersrand, Medical Research Council, and Anglo American and De Beers Chairmans Fund, South Africa; the European Union; Andrew W Mellon Foundation, Henry J Kaiser Family Foundation, and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health, USA.

Research into health, population and social transitions in rural South Africa: Data and methods of the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System

Rationale for study: Vital registration is generally lacking in infrastructurally weak areas where health and development problems are most pressing. Health and demographic surveillance is a response to the lack of a valid information base that can provide high-quality longitudinal data on population dynamics, health, and social change to inform policy and practice. Design and measurement procedures: Continuous demographic monitoring of an entire geographically defined population involves a multi-round, prospective community study, with annual recording of all vital events (births, deaths, migrations). Status observations and special modules add value to particular research areas. A verbal autopsy is conducted on every death to determine its probable cause. A geographic surveillance system supports spatial analyses, and strengthens field management. Population and sample size considerations: Health and demographic surveillance covers the Agincourt sub-district population, sited in rural north-eastern South Africa, of some 70,000 people (nearly a third are Mozambican immigrants) in 21 villages and 11,700 households. Data enumerated are consistent or more detailed when compared with national sources; strategies to improve incomplete data, such as counts of perinatal deaths, have been introduced with positive effect. Basic characteristics: A major health and demographic transition was documented over a 12-year period with marked changes in population structure, escalating mortality, declining fertility, and high levels of temporary migration increasing particularly amongst women. A dual burden of infectious and non-communicable disease exists against a background of dramatically progressing HIV/AIDS. Potential and research questions: Health and demographic surveillance sites — fundamental to the INDEPTH Network — generate research questions and hypotheses from empirical data, highlight health, social and population priorities, provide cost-effective support for diverse study designs, and track population change and the impact of interventions over time.

Returning home to die: Circular labour migration and mortality in South Africa

Aim: To examine the hypothesis that circular labour migrants who become seriously ill while living away from home return to their rural homes to convalesce and possibly to die. Methods: Drawing on longitudinal data collected by the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system in rural northeastern South Africa between 1995 and 2004, discrete time event history analysis is used to estimate the likelihood of dying for residents, short-term returning migrants, and long-term returning migrants controlling for sex, age, and historical period. Results: The annual odds of dying for short-term returning migrants are generally 1.1 to 1.9 times (depending on period, sex, and age) higher than those of residents and long-term returning migrants, and these differences are generally highly statistically significant. Further supporting the hypothesis is the fact that the proportion of HIV/TB deaths among short-term returning migrants increases dramatically as time progresses, and short-term returning migrants account for an increasing proportion of all HIV/TB deaths. Conclusions: This evidence strongly suggests that increasing numbers of circular labour migrants of prime working age are becoming ill in the urban areas where they work and coming home to be cared for and eventually to die in the rural areas where their families live. This shifts the burden of caring for them in their terminal illness to their families and the rural healthcare system with significant consequences for the distribution and allocation of health care resources.

Striving against adversity: the dynamics of migration, health and poverty in rural South Africa

This article is a review of the PhD thesis of Mark Collinson, titled, ‘Striving against adversity: the dynamics of migration, health and poverty in rural South Africa’. The findings show that in rural South Africa, temporary migration has a major impact on household well-being and health. Remittances from migrants make a significant difference to socioeconomic status (SES) in households left behind by the migrant. For the poorest households the key factors improving SES are government grants and female temporary migration, while for the less poor it is male temporary migration and local employment. Migration is associated with HIV but not in straightforward ways. Migrants that return more frequently may be less exposed to outside partners and therefore less implicated in the HIV epidemic. There are links between migration and mortality patterns, including a higher risk of dying for returnee migrants compared with permanent residents. A mothers migration impacts significantly on child survival for South African and former refugee parents, but there is an additional mortality risk for children of Mozambican former refugees. It is recommended that national censuses and surveys account for temporary migration when collecting information on household membership, because different migration types have different outcomes. Without discriminating between different migration types, the implications for sending and receiving communities will remain lost to policy-makers. Access the supplementary material to this article: a video showing the authors official defense of his thesis, and a PDF presenting the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (see Supplementary files under Reading Tools online). This article has been commented on by Peter Mark Streatfield. Please follow this link - http://www.globalhealthaction.net/index.php/gha/article/view/5301 - to read his Commentary

Respiratory syncytial virus infection: denominator-based studies in Indonesia, Mozambique, Nigeria and South Africa

OBJECTIVE To assess the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated lower respiratory infections (LRI) in children in four developing countries. METHODS A WHO protocol for prospective population-based surveillance of acute respiratory infections in children aged less than 5 years was used at sites in Indonesia, Mozambique, Nigeria and South Africa. RSV antigen was identified by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay performed on nasopharyngeal specimens from children meeting clinical case definitions. FINDINGS Among children aged < 5 years, the incidence of RSV-associated LRI per 1000 child-years was 34 in Indonesia and 94 in Nigeria. The incidence of RSV-associated severe LRI per 1000 child-years was 5 in Mozambique, 10 in Indonesia, and 9 in South Africa. At all study sites, the majority of RSV cases occurred in infants. CONCLUSION These studies demonstrate that RSV contributes to a substantial but quite variable burden of LRI in children aged < 5 years in four developing countries. The possible explanations for this variation include social factors, such as family size and patterns of seeking health care; the proportion of children infected by human immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV); and differences in clinical definitions used for obtaining samples. The age distribution of cases indicates the need for an RSV vaccine that can protect children early in life.

Trends in Internal Labour Migration from Rural Limpopo Province, Male Risk Behaviour, and Implications for the Spread of HIV/AIDS in Rural South Africa

Given improvements in the transport infrastructure and the end of travel restrictions characteristic of the apartheid period, there could be a reasonable expectation that male risk behaviour in sexual relations would be reduced as rural–urban connections were enhanced. Using the example of Limpopo Province, South Africa, this research draws on an existing demographic surveillance system and a specialised survey to test the hypothesis. We find that male risk behaviour and lack of awareness of risks have not altered significantly and that there are potentially explosive possibilities for the spread of HIV/AIDS to and from Limpopo Province. There have to be enhanced measures to bring the labour market closer to rural settings to arrest this phenomenon.

Cause-specific childhood mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites

Background Because most deaths in Africa and Asia are not well documented, estimates of mortality are often made using scanty data. The INDEPTH Network works to alleviate this problem by collating detailed individual data from defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering all deaths over time and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. Objective To build a large standardised mortality database from African and Asian sites, detailing the relevant methods, and use it to describe cause-specific mortality patterns. Design Individual demographic and verbal autopsy (VA) data from 22 INDEPTH sites were collated into a standardised database. The INDEPTH 2013 population was used for standardisation. The WHO 2012 VA standard and the InterVA-4 model were used for assigning cause of death. Results A total of 111,910 deaths occurring over 12,204,043 person-years (accumulated between 1992 and 2012) were registered across the 22 sites, and for 98,429 of these deaths (88.0%) verbal autopsies were successfully completed. There was considerable variation in all-cause mortality between sites, with most of the differences being accounted for by variations in infectious causes as a proportion of all deaths. Conclusions This dataset documents individual deaths across Africa and Asia in a standardised way, and on an unprecedented scale. While INDEPTH sites are not constructed to constitute a representative sample, and VA may not be the ideal method of determining cause of death, nevertheless these findings represent detailed mortality patterns for parts of the world that are severely under-served in terms of measuring mortality. Further papers explore details of mortality patterns among children and specifically for NCDs, external causes, pregnancy-related mortality, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. Comparisons will also be made where possible with other findings on mortality in the same regions. Findings presented here and in accompanying papers support the need for continued work towards much wider implementation of universal civil registration of deaths by cause on a worldwide basis.Background Because most deaths in Africa and Asia are not well documented, estimates of mortality are often made using scanty data. The INDEPTH Network works to alleviate this problem by collating detailed individual data from defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering all deaths over time and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available. Objective To build a large standardised mortality database from African and Asian sites, detailing the relevant methods, and use it to describe cause-specific mortality patterns. Design Individual demographic and verbal autopsy (VA) data from 22 INDEPTH sites were collated into a standardised database. The INDEPTH 2013 population was used for standardisation. The WHO 2012 VA standard and the InterVA-4 model were used for assigning cause of death. Results A total of 111,910 deaths occurring over 12,204,043 person-years (accumulated between 1992 and 2012) were registered across the 22 sites, and for 98,429 of these deaths (88.0%) verbal autopsies were successfully completed. There was considerable variation in all-cause mortality between sites, with most of the differences being accounted for by variations in infectious causes as a proportion of all deaths. Conclusions This dataset documents individual deaths across Africa and Asia in a standardised way, and on an unprecedented scale. While INDEPTH sites are not constructed to constitute a representative sample, and VA may not be the ideal method of determining cause of death, nevertheless these findings represent detailed mortality patterns for parts of the world that are severely under-served in terms of measuring mortality. Further papers explore details of mortality patterns among children and specifically for NCDs, external causes, pregnancy-related mortality, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. Comparisons will also be made where possible with other findings on mortality in the same regions. Findings presented here and in accompanying papers support the need for continued work towards much wider implementation of universal civil registration of deaths by cause on a worldwide basis.

Evaluating access to a child-oriented poverty alleviation intervention in rural South Africa

Background: In April 1998, the South African government introduced the child-support grant as a poverty-alleviation measure to support the income of poor households and enable them to care for the child. Aims: This research aimed to measure equity of access to applications for the child-support grant in an area characterized by poverty. Three questions were addressed: (i) How does socioeconomic status affect the probability of a household applying for a child-care grant? (ii) What household and caregiver characteristics are associated with child-care-grant application? (iii) What barriers to access are experienced by households that do not apply for the child-care grant? Methods: The study population of 6,725 households with at least one age-eligible child was drawn from the Agincourt field site, a rural sub-district of South Africa. Data used were obtained from health and demographic surveillance, a child-grant questionnaire, and a household-asset survey. Descriptive cross-tabulations and multivariate logistic regression were used in the analysis. Results: Although these grants are intended as a pro-poor intervention, the poorest households are less likely to apply for grants than those in higher socioeconomic bands. Households in lower socioeconomic bands experienced barriers in accessing grants; these related to lack of official documentation, education level of the caregiver and household head, and distance from government service offices. Conclusions: Enhancing access will require improved provision of birth certificates and identity documents, efficient coordination and service provision from a range of rural government offices, and creative methods of communication.

Fertility trends and net reproduction in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 1992-2004

Aims: To analyse trends in fertility rates and net reproduction rates in Agincourt, a rural area of South Africa located in the former homeland of Gazankulu near the Mozambican border. Trends are analysed in the context of widely available modern contraceptive methods and increasing HIV/AIDS. Methods: A health and demographic surveillance system has been in place since 1992, covering a population of approximately 70,000 persons, with an annual census update and comprehensive recording of births and deaths. It was complemented by a retrospective study of fertility at baseline. Retrospective and prospective data were used to calculate trends in fertility, survival, and net reproduction. When possible, they were compared with data from other censuses and surveys in the same ethnic group. Results: The fertility transition has almost ended over a course of 25 years in Agincourt. The total fertility rate (TFR) averaged 6.0 in 1979 and 2.3 in 2004. Fertility declined in proportionate fashion in all age groups including adolescents in the recent period. The net reproduction rate (NRR) declined from 1.8 to 1.0 during the prospective period (1992—2004). At current rates of change in fertility and mortality, the NRR can be expected to reach 0.63 by the year 2010. Conclusions: The situation of a below-replacement fertility level is new for rural Africa, and is likely to have many demographic, economic and social implications. The population could decline in the country as a whole, and is nearly static in Agincourt because of negative migration flows balancing the small excess from natural increase.

Child mobility, maternal status, and household composition in rural South Africa.

This article examines the influence of maternal status, socioeconomic status of the household, and household composition on the mobility of children aged 0–14 in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, from 1999 to 2008. Using data from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System, we found that children whose mothers were temporary migrants, living elsewhere, or dead had higher odds of moving than children whose mothers were coresident. Older children and children living in richer households faced lower odds of mobility. For children whose mothers were coresident, there was no effect of maternal substitutes on child mobility. However, among children whose mothers were temporary migrants or living elsewhere, the presence of prime-aged and elderly females lowered the odds of mobility. For maternal orphans, the presence of elderly women in the household lowered their odds of mobility. The results underscore the importance of examining the conditions under which children move in order to strengthen service delivery targeted at safeguarding children’s well-being.