Mark A. Espeland

Menopausal hormone therapy and long-term all-cause and cause-specific mortality: The Women’s Health Initiative randomized trials

Importance Health outcomes from the Women’s Health Initiative Estrogen Plus Progestin and Estrogen-Alone Trials have been reported, but previous publications have generally not focused on all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Objective To examine total and cause-specific cumulative mortality, including during the intervention and extended postintervention follow-up, of the 2 Women’s Health Initiative hormone therapy trials. Design, Setting, and Participants Observational follow-up of US multiethnic postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years enrolled in 2 randomized clinical trials between 1993 and 1998 and followed up through December 31, 2014. Interventions Conjugated equine estrogens (CEE, 0.625 mg/d) plus medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA, 2.5 mg/d) (n = 8506) vs placebo (n = 8102) for 5.6 years (median) or CEE alone (n = 5310) vs placebo (n = 5429) for 7.2 years (median). Main Outcomes and Measures All-cause mortality (primary outcome) and cause-specific mortality (cardiovascular disease mortality, cancer mortality, and other major causes of mortality) in the 2 trials pooled and in each trial individually, with prespecified analyses by 10-year age group based on age at time of randomization. Results Among 27 347 women who were randomized (baseline mean [SD] age, 63.4 [7.2] years; 80.6% white), mortality follow-up was available for more than 98%. During the cumulative 18-year follow-up, 7489 deaths occurred (1088 deaths during the intervention phase and 6401 deaths during postintervention follow-up). All-cause mortality was 27.1% in the hormone therapy group vs 27.6% in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.99 [95% CI, 0.94-1.03]) in the overall pooled cohort; with CEE plus MPA, the HR was 1.02 (95% CI, 0.96-1.08); and with CEE alone, the HR was 0.94 (95% CI, 0.88-1.01). In the pooled cohort for cardiovascular mortality, the HR was 1.00 (95% CI, 0.92-1.08 [8.9 % with hormone therapy vs 9.0% with placebo]); for total cancer mortality, the HR was 1.03 (95% CI, 0.95-1.12 [8.2 % with hormone therapy vs 8.0% with placebo]); and for other causes, the HR was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.88-1.02 [10.0% with hormone therapy vs 10.7% with placebo]), and results did not differ significantly between trials. When examined by 10-year age groups comparing younger women (aged 50-59 years) to older women (aged 70-79 years) in the pooled cohort, the ratio of nominal HRs for all-cause mortality was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.43-0.87) during the intervention phase and the ratio was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.76-1.00) during cumulative 18-year follow-up, without significant heterogeneity between trials. Conclusions and Relevance Among postmenopausal women, hormone therapy with CEE plus MPA for a median of 5.6 years or with CEE alone for a median of 7.2 years was not associated with risk of all-cause, cardiovascular, or cancer mortality during a cumulative follow-up of 18 years. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611

Negative Affect Is Associated With Higher Risk of Incident Cognitive Impairment in Nondepressed Postmenopausal Women

Background Positive affect (PA) and negative affect (NA) reflect subjective emotional experiences. Although related to depression and anxiety, these dimensions are distinct constructs representing affective states and patterns. Prior studies suggest that elevated depressive symptoms are associated with risk of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and probable dementia, but whether affective states are associated with cognitive impairment is still unknown. The present study examined relationships between baseline affective states and cognitive impairment (MCI, probable dementia) in nondepressed women. Method Baseline PA and NA were assessed in postmenopausal women (N = 2,137; mean age = 73.8 years) from the Womens Health Initiative Study of Cognitive Aging (WHISCA) using the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS). Women were followed annually for an average of 11.3 years; those with elevated depressive symptoms at baseline were excluded. Results Higher NA was associated with a higher risk of MCI and probable dementia, even after adjusting for important covariates including age, education, sociodemographic, lifestyle, and cardiovascular risk factors, global cognition, and hormone therapy assignment at baseline. PA was not significantly associated with either outcome. Conclusions We present the first evidence to date that greater NA, even in the absence of elevated depressive symptoms, is associated with higher risk of MCI and dementia. This suggests that NA may be an important, measureable and potentially modifiable risk factor for age-related cognitive decline.

Long-term Impact of Weight Loss Intervention on Changes in Cognitive Function: Exploratory Analyses from the Action for Health in Diabetes Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial

Background Diabetes adversely impacts cognition. Lifestyle change can improve diabetes control and potentially improve cognition. We examined whether weight loss through reduced caloric intake and increased physical activity was associated with slower cognitive aging in older adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods The Look AHEAD randomized controlled clinical trial delivered 10 years of intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) that yielded long-term weight losses. During 5 years spanning the end of intervention and postintervention follow-up, repeated cognitive assessments were obtained in 1,091 individuals who had been assigned to ILI or a control condition of diabetes support and education (DSE). We compared the means and slopes of scores on cognitive testing over these repeated assessments. Results Compared with DSE, assignment to ILI was associated with a -0.082 SD deficit in mean global cognitive function across repeated assessments (p = .010). However, overweight (body mass index [BMI] < 30 kg/m2) ILI participants had 0.099 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.006, 0.259) better mean global cognitive function compared with overweight DSE participants, while obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) ILI participants had -0.117 (-0.185, -0.049) SD worse mean composite cognitive function scores (interaction p = .014) compared to obese DSE participants. For both overweight and obese participants, cognitive decline was marginally (-0.014 SD/y overall) steeper for ILI participants (p = .068), with 95% CI for differences in slopes excluding 0 for measures of attention and memory. Conclusions The behavioral weight loss intervention was associated with small relative deficits in cognitive function among individuals who were obese and marginally greater cognitive decline overall compared to control. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00017953.

Long Term Effect of Intensive Lifestyle Intervention on Cerebral Blood Flow

To determine whether long‐term behavioral intervention targeting weight loss through increased physical activity and reduced caloric intake would alter cerebral blood flow (CBF) in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Cognitive Function and Changes in Cognitive Function as Predictors of Incident Cardiovascular Disease: The Women's Health Initiative Memory Study.

Background Cognitive impairment and decline may signal the increased risk of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). We examined associations of global cognitive function, as measured by the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MS) and changes in 3MS over time, with incident CVD, individual CVD outcomes, CVD death, and all-cause mortality. Methods A total of 5,596 women (≥ 60) from the Womens Health Initiative Memory Study free of CVD at baseline were followed for an average of 7.1 years. The 3MS was measured at baseline and annually thereafter. Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to model associations between baseline 3MS and changes in 3MS and time to events. Results In the fully-adjusted models for every 5-point lower baseline 3MS score, the risk was 12% greater for incident CVD, 37% for HF, 35% for CVD death, and 24% for all-cause mortality. No significant relationships were found for coronary heart disease (CHD), angina, stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA), or coronary revascularization. When change in 3MS was added as a time-varying covariate in the fully-adjusted models, for every 1-point/year greater decline in 3MS, the risk was 4% greater for incident CVD, 10% for CHD, 9% for Stroke/TIA, 17% for CVD death, and 13% for all-cause mortality. Conclusions In older women free of prevalent CVD at baseline, lower baseline global cognitive function or decline in global cognitive function over time, increased risk of incident CVD, CVD death, and all-cause mortality.