Mark A. Trombley

The Association Between Investment Opportunity Set Proxies and Realized Growth

Realized growth can be viewed as a proxy for the unobservable investment opportunity set (IOS) of the firm, and provides a benchmark against which IOS proxy variables can be compared. Results from such a comparison indicate that many of the variables from earlier studies, including book-to-market measures and capital expenditure to assets ratios are consistently correlated with subsequently realized growth. However, R&D intensity and E/P ratios do not exhibit any consistent association with subsequent growth indicating that they may not be valid IOS proxies. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 1999.

Changes in Institutional Ownership and Subsequent Earnings Announcement Abnormal Returns

This study documents an association between changes in institutional ownership during a calendar quarter and abnormal returns at the time of subsequent announcements of quarterly earnings. The result is driven by the portfolio returns of the extreme deciles of changes in institutional ownership, suggesting that institutions trade based on information about future earnings, but that such trading is not widespread. We also find that the difference between earnings announcement returns of the extreme deciles of change in institutional ownership is much greater when change in institutional ownership of a stock is driven by relatively few institutions, measured using the skewness of the distribution of change in institutional ownership of the stock. This result suggests that when fewer differentially informed investors make disproportionately large purchases or sales of stocks, a greater amount of the information on which they base their trades is not impounded in prices until the subsequent earnings announcement. Finally, we show that our results obtain for institutional investors with short-term focus, such as independent advisors, investment companies and insurance companies, but not for institutional investors with long- term focus, such as internally managed pension funds, educational institutions, and private foundations. This result further supports our conclusions regarding informed trading by institutions based on information about forthcoming earnings.

Accruals and Future Stock Returns: Tests of the Naive Investor Hypothesis

We explore whether the association between accruals and future returns documented by Sloan (1996) is due to fixation by naïve investors on the total amount of reported earnings without regard for the relative magnitude of the accrual and cash flow components. Contrary to the predictions of the naïve investor hypothesis, we find that the predictive ability of accruals for subsequent annual returns and for quarterly earnings announcement stock returns is not lower for large firms or for firms followed more by analysts or held more by institutions. Further, we find that the ability of accruals to predict future returns does not seem to depend on stock price or transaction volume, measures of transaction costs, also contrary to predictions of the naïve investor hypothesis. These results are robust to regression and hedge portfolio tests. We conclude that the predictive ability of accruals for subsequent returns does not seem to be due to the inability of market participants to understand value-relevant information.

Demand for Audit Quality: The Case of Laventhol and Horwath’s Auditees

This study investigates the demand for audit quality for the firms being audited by Laventhol and Horwath (LH) at the time LH declared bankruptcy. The demand for audit quality by the former LH clients is inferred from their decisions to select Big Six or non–Big Six auditors. Because the change in auditors was involuntary, the sample avoids self-selection issues associated with voluntary auditor switches. LH clients that selected Big Six auditors tended to be more highly leveraged, have less management ownership, and issue more securities in the year after selecting the new auditor than LH clients that selected non–Big Six auditors.

The investment opportunity set: determinants, consequences and measurement

Explains the concept of the investment set (IOS: i.e. chances to invest for expansion, new products, cost reduction etc.) and its effects on firm value. Reviews previous research on the theoretical relationships between IOS and optimal contracting resulting from shareholder/debtholder conflict, agency costs and performance measurement problems; and empirical research on its links with company policy on financing, dividends and compensation. Goes on to discuss research on measuring IOS by using various proxies; and summarizes the main findings.

Cash Flow and Accrual Surprises: Persistence and Return Implications

This paper investigates the return implications of the cash flows and accruals components of unexpected earnings. We find that unexpected cash flows have greater persistence than unexpected accruals and that this difference is driven primarily by loss firms. We also find that markets appear to react more (less) strongly to the unexpected cash flow (accrual) component of total unexpected earnings, but that only firms that beat both earnings expectations and cash flow expectations are rewarded with higher returns. These results are consistent with at least some fixation on the total earnings number, to the exclusion of more economically important cash flow surprises.

The Impact of Earnings Management and Tax Planning on the Information Content of Earnings

This paper examines the effect of tax planning and earnings management on the relative informativeness of book income and taxable income. We conduct two sets of tests documenting (1) the incremental effect of tax planning and earnings management on the relative informativeness of book and taxable income and (2) the relation between voluntary conformity and the relative informativeness of book and taxable income. Based on these two sets of tests, we conclude that tax planning and earnings quality jointly affect the relative informativeness of book and taxable income.

Understanding the PEG Ratio

The price-earnings-to-growth, or PEG, ratio is widely used by both individual investors and professional portfolio managers. This article explores the relationship between the PEG ratio and its determinants. The main conclusions are that (1) higher PEG ratios are consistent with correct valuation for firms with relatively low growth, for firms with more persistent high growth, and for firms with low cost of capital, and (2) PEG ratios frequently should exceed the conventional 1.0 benchmark for correctly valued firms, especially those with low cost of capital. The article recommends against using PEG as a tool to choose among different types of firms and concludes that the best use of PEG is for within-industry screening when firms are likely to have similar cost of capital and similar growth prospects