Mark B. Green

Long-Term Integrated Studies Show Complex and Surprising Effects of Climate Change in the Northern Hardwood Forest

Evaluations of the local effects of global change are often confounded by the interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors that overshadow the effects of climate changes on ecosystems. Long-term watershed and natural elevation gradient studies at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest and in the surrounding region show surprising results demonstrating the effects of climate change on hydrologic variables (e.g., evapotranspiration, streamflow, soil moisture); the importance of changes in phenology on water, carbon, and nitrogen fluxes during critical seasonal transition periods; winter climate change effects on plant and animal community composition and ecosystem services; and the effects of anthropogenic disturbances and land-use history on plant community composition. These studies highlight the value of long-term integrated research for assessments of the subtle effects of changing climate on complex ecosystems.

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America.

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchments change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments.

Linking water age and solute dynamics in streamflow at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH, USA

We combine experimental and modeling results from a headwater catchment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, USA, to explore the link between stream solute dynamics and water age. A theoretical framework based on water age dynamics, which represents a general basis for characterizing solute transport at the catchment scale, is here applied to conservative and weathering-derived solutes. Based on the available information about the hydrology of the site, an integrated transport model was developed and used to compute hydrochemical fluxes. The model was designed to reproduce the deuterium content of streamflow and allowed for the estimate of catchment water storage and dynamic travel time distributions (TTDs). The innovative contribution of this paper is the simulation of dissolved silicon and sodium concentration in streamflow, achieved by implementing first-order chemical kinetics based explicitly on dynamic TTD, thus upscaling local geochemical processes to catchment scale. Our results highlight the key role of water stored within the subsoil glacial material in both the short-term and long-term solute circulation. The travel time analysis provided an estimate of streamflow age distributions and their evolution in time related to catchment wetness conditions. The use of age information to reproduce a 14 year data set of silicon and sodium stream concentration shows that, at catchment scales, the dynamics of such geogenic solutes are mostly controlled by hydrologic drivers, which determine the contact times between the water and mineral interfaces. Justifications and limitations toward a general theory of reactive solute circulation at catchment scales are discussed.

Decreased water flowing from a forest amended with calcium silicate

Acid deposition during the 20th century caused widespread depletion of available soil calcium (Ca) throughout much of the industrialized world. To better understand how forest ecosystems respond to changes in a component of acidification stress, an 11.8-ha watershed was amended with wollastonite, a calcium silicate mineral, to restore available soil Ca to preindustrial levels through natural weathering. An unexpected outcome of the Ca amendment was a change in watershed hydrology; annual evapotranspiration increased by 25%, 18%, and 19%, respectively, for the 3 y following treatment before returning to pretreatment levels. During this period, the watershed retained Ca from the wollastonite, indicating a watershed-scale fertilization effect on transpiration. That response is unique in being a measured manipulation of watershed runoff attributable to fertilization, a response of similar magnitude to effects of deforestation. Our results suggest that past and future changes in available soil Ca concentrations have important and previously unrecognized implications for the water cycle.

A longer vernal window: the role of winter coldness and snowpack in driving spring transitions and lags

Climate change is altering the timing and duration of the vernal window, a period that marks the end of winter and the start of the growing season when rapid transitions in ecosystem energy, water, nutrient, and carbon dynamics take place. Research on this period typically captures only a portion of the ecosystem in transition and focuses largely on the dates by which the system wakes up. Previous work has not addressed lags between transitions that represent delays in energy, water, nutrient, and carbon flows. The objectives of this study were to establish the sequence of physical and biogeochemical transitions and lags during the vernal window period and to understand how climate change may alter them. We synthesized observations from a statewide sensor network in New Hampshire, USA, that concurrently monitored climate, snow, soils, and streams over a three-year period and supplemented these observations with climate reanalysis data, snow data assimilation model output, and satellite spectral data. We found that some of the transitions that occurred within the vernal window were sequential, with air temperatures warming prior to snow melt, which preceded forest canopy closure. Other transitions were simultaneous with one another and had zero-length lags, such as snowpack disappearance, rapid soil warming, and peak stream discharge. We modeled lags as a function of both winter coldness and snow depth, both of which are expected to decline with climate change. Warmer winters with less snow resulted in longer lags and a more protracted vernal window. This lengthening of individual lags and of the entire vernal window carries important consequences for the thermodynamics and biogeochemistry of ecosystems, both during the winter-to-spring transition and throughout the rest of the year.

Tapping Environmental History to Recreate America’s Colonial Hydrology

To properly remediate, improve, or predict how hydrological systems behave, it is vital to establish their histories. However, modern-style records, assembled from instrumental data and remote sensing platforms, hardly exist back more than a few decades. As centuries of data is preferable given multidecadal fluxes of both meteorology/climatology and demographics, building such a history requires resources traditionally considered only useful in the social sciences and humanities. In this Feature, Pastore et al. discuss how they have undertaken the synthesis of historical records and modern techniques to understand the hydrology of the Northeastern U.S. from Colonial times to modern day. Such approaches could aid studies in other regions that may require heavier reliance on qualitative narratives. Further, a better insight as to how historical changes unfolded could provide a “past is prologue” methodology to increase the accuracy of predictive environmental models.

The promise and peril of intensive-site-based ecological research: insights from the Hubbard Brook ecosystem study

Ecological research is increasingly concentrated at particular locations or sites. This trend reflects a variety of advantages of intensive, site-based research, but also raises important questions about the nature of such spatially delimited research: how well does site based research represent broader areas, and does it constrain scientific discovery? We provide an overview of these issues with a particular focus on one prominent intensive research site: the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, USA. Among the key features of intensive sites are: long-term, archived data sets that provide a context for new discoveries and the elucidation of ecological mechanisms; the capacity to constrain inputs and parameters, and to validate models of complex ecological processes; and the intellectual cross-fertilization among disciplines in ecological and environmental sciences. The feasibility of scaling up ecological observations from intensive sites depends upon both the phenomenon of interest and the characteristics of the site. An evaluation of deviation metrics for the HBEF illustrates that, in some respects, including sensitivity and recovery of streams and trees from acid deposition, this site is representative of the Northern Forest region, of which HBEF is a part. However, the mountainous terrain and lack of significant agricultural legacy make the HBEF among the least disturbed sites in the Northern Forest region. Its relatively cool, wet climate contributes to high stream flow compared to other sites. These similarities and differences between the HBEF and the region can profoundly influence ecological patterns and processes and potentially limit the generality of observations at this and other intensive sites. Indeed, the difficulty of scaling up may be greatest for ecological phenomena that are sensitive to historical disturbance and that exhibit the greatest spatiotemporal variation, such as denitrification in soils and the dynamics of bird communities. Our research shows that end member sites for some processes often provide important insights into the behavior of inherently heterogeneous ecological processes. In the current era of rapid environmental and biological change, key ecological responses at intensive sites will reflect both specific local drivers and regional trends.

Comparing Catchment Hydrologic Response to a Regional Storm Using Specific Conductivity Sensors

&NA; A better understanding of stormwater generation and solute sources is needed to improve the protection of aquatic ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health from large runoff events. Much of our understanding of water and solutes produced during stormflow comes from studies of individual, small headwater catchments. This study compared many different types of catchments during a single large event to help isolate landscape controls on streamwater and solute generation, including human‐impacted land cover. We used a distributed network of specific electrical conductivity sensors to trace storm response during the post‐tropical cyclone Sandy event of October 2012 at 29 catchments across the state of New Hampshire. A citizen science sensor network, Lotic Volunteer for Temperature, Electrical Conductivity, and Stage, provided a unique opportunity to investigate high‐temporal resolution stream behavior at a broad spatial scale. Three storm response metrics were analyzed in this study: (a) fraction of new water contributing to the hydrograph; (b) presence of first flush (mobilization of solutes during the beginning of the rain event); and (c) magnitude of first flush. We compared new water and first flush to 64 predictor attributes related to land cover, soil, topography, and precipitation. The new water fraction was positively correlated with low and medium intensity development in the catchment and riparian buffers and with the precipitation from a rain event 9 days prior to Sandy. The presence of first flush was most closely related (positively) to soil organic matter. Magnitude of first flush was not strongly related to any of the catchment variables. Our results highlight the potentially important role of human landscape modification in runoff generation at multiple spatial scales and the lack of a clear role in solute flushing. Further development of regional‐scale in situ sensor networks will provide better understanding of stormflow and solute generation across a wide range of landscape conditions.

Stream Runoff and Nitrate Recovery Times After Forest Disturbance in the USA and Japan

To understand mechanisms of long-term hydrological and biogeochemical recovery after forest disturbance, it is important to evaluate recovery times (i.e., time scales associated with the return to baseline or predisturbance conditions) of stream runoff and nitrate concentration. Previous studies have focused on either the response of runoff or nitrate concentration, and some have specifically addressed recovery times following disturbance. However, controlling factors have not yet been elucidated. Knowing these relationships will advance our understanding of each recovery process. The objectives of this study were to explore the relationship between runoff and nitrate recovery times and identify potential factors controlling each. We acquired long-term runoff and stream water nitrate concentration data from 20 sites in the USA and Japan. We then examined the relationship between runoff and nitrate recovery times at these multiple sites and use these relationships to discuss the ecosystem dynamics following forest disturbance. Nitrate response was detected at all study sites, while runoff responses were detected at all sites with disturbance intensities greater than 75% of the catchment area. The runoff recovery time was significantly correlated with the nitrate recovery time for catchments that had a runoff response. For these catchments, hydrological recovery times were slower than nitrate recovery times. The relationship between these two recovery times suggests that forest regeneration was a common control on both recovery times. However, the faster recovery time for nitrate suggests that nitrogen was less available or less mobile in these catchments than water.

Downsizing a long-term precipitation network: Using a quantitative approach to inform difficult decisions

The design of a precipitation monitoring network must balance the demand for accurate estimates with the resources needed to build and maintain the network. If there are changes in the objectives of the monitoring or the availability of resources, network designs should be adjusted. At the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA, precipitation has been monitored with a network established in 1955 that has grown to 23 gauges distributed across nine small catchments. This high sampling intensity allowed us to simulate reduced sampling schemes and thereby evaluate the effect of decommissioning gauges on the quality of precipitation estimates. We considered all possible scenarios of sampling intensity for the catchments on the south-facing slope (2047 combinations) and the north-facing slope (4095 combinations), from the current scenario with 11 or 12 gauges to only 1 gauge remaining. Gauge scenarios differed by as much as 6.0% from the best estimate (based on all the gauges), depending on the catchment, but 95% of the scenarios gave estimates within 2% of the long-term average annual precipitation. The insensitivity of precipitation estimates and the catchment fluxes that depend on them under many reduced monitoring scenarios allowed us to base our reduction decision on other factors such as technician safety, the time required for monitoring, and co-location with other hydrometeorological measurements (snow, air temperature). At Hubbard Brook, precipitation gauges could be reduced from 23 to 10 with a change of <2% in the long-term precipitation estimates. The decision-making approach illustrated in this case study is applicable to the redesign of monitoring networks when reduction of effort seems warranted.