Mark B. Stewart

Modelling the Probability of Leaving Unemployment: Competing Risks Models with Flexible Base-Line Hazards

Unemployment durations are generally modelled by using survival analysis. In the past, in Britain, all such studies have not only used very restrictive parametric specifications of the hazard functions, most commonly Weibull in form, but also only modelled unemployment durations without distinguishing the nature of the exit. These restrictions potentially bias the estimated effects, particularly those of the time varying economic variables and the base-line hazard. When we use semiparametric methods to estimate models with completely unrestricted base-line hazards, we find the restrictions implied by the Weibull specification to be rejected for Britain. We then use a competing risks model to distinguish exit into a job from other exits

UNION WAGE DIFFERENTIALS, PRODUCT MARKET INFLUENCES AND THE DIVISION OF RENTS

This paper examines the circumstances which enable trade unions to establish wage differentials. Union wage differentials are created by the capturing of rents and the paper considers the circumstances in which rents exist to be captured and when unions are able to do so. In line with theoretical predictions, differentials are found to be very different in establishments facing competitive product market conditions and in those with some degree of product market power. In the former, high union coverage of the industry and the union strength given by a pre-entry closed shop are found to be dominant requirements, with only a very small minority of establishments satisfying even these. In contrast there is found to be considerably greater scope for unions in firms with market power and neither of the above conditions are a requirement for the existence of a differential in this case. Unions are found to be unable to create differentials in establishments which operate primarily in international markets.

The Determinants of Individual Unemployment Durations in an Era of High Unemployment

This paper presents the results of an econometric analysis of the conditional probability of leaving unemployment for two male inflow cohorts entering unemployment at very different points in time: 1978 and 1987. The effect of income while unemployed is found to be much weaker for the 1987 cohort, an elasticity of -0.1 compared with -0.4, and is only found to be significant for teenagers and in the first three months of a spell. Demand constraints, measured by the local unemployment rate, are found to have a stronger negative effect on the exit probability for the 1987 cohort than in 1978. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

Collective Bargaining Arrangements, Closed Shops and Relative Pay

This paper uses establishment-level data to examine the impact on union/nonunion pay differentials of the industrial relations setting in which bargaining takes place. The pre-entry closed shop is found to be of prime importance for the pay of both skilled and semiskilled manual workers. For skilled workers, and for semiskilled workers in larger establishments, the differentials are found to be insignificantly different from zero in the absence of a pre-entry closed shop. Copyright 1987 by Royal Economic Society.

The Other Margin: Do Minimum Wages Cause Working Hours Adjustments for Low-Wage Workers?

This paper estimates the impact of the introduction of the UK minimum wage on the working hours of low-wage employees using difference-in-differences estimators. The estimates using the employer-based New Earnings Surveys indicate that the introduction of the minimum wage reduced the basic hours of low-wage workers by between 1 and 2 hours per week. The effects on total paid hours are similar (indicating negligible effects on paid overtime) and lagged effects dominate the smaller and less significant initial effects within this. Estimates using the employee-based Labour Force Surveys are typically less significant.

THE IMPACT OF THE INTRODUCTION OF THE U.K. MINIMUM WAGE ON THE EMPLOYMENT PROBABILITIES OF LOW-WAGE WORKERS

This paper uses longitudinal data from three contrasting data sets (matched Labor Force Surveys, the British Household Panel Survey, and matched New Earnings Surveys) to estimate the impact of the introduction of the U.K. minimum wage (in April 1999) on the probability of subsequent employment among those whose wages would have needed to be raised to comply with the minimum. A difference-in-differences estimator is used, based on position in the wage distribution. No significant adverse employment effects are found for any of the four demographic groups considered (adult and youth, men and women) or in any of the three data sets used. (JEL: J38, J23) Copyright (c) 2004 by the European Economic Association.

The estimation of union wage differentials and the impact of methodological choices

Abstract This paper demonstrates that methodological differences can matter a lot in the estimation of union/non-union wage differentials. Using individual-level data from the 1991 Wave of the British Household Panel Survey and a model evolved from replicating six existing British studies, we find that the model specification adopted has an important impact on the estimated differential and that the choice of which group means to use when evaluating the mean differential in multi-equation models is of considerable importance. There are also important differences between membership and coverage differentials and the earnings measure used and sample selected also make a difference. However, apart from firm size, the contents of the control vector used is not found to be of great importance.

Union Wage Differentials in the Face of Changes in the Economic and Legal Environment

This paper examines changes in union wage differentials in Britain between 1980 and 1984 on the basis of two comparable establishment-level data sets. This period saw considerable economic and legislative change with potential effects on the outcomes of collective bargaining. Despite these changes, the mean differential has little change between these two years, and what there is is attributable to compositional changes, such as the shift away from the manufacturing sector and the downward shift in the establishment size distribution. The impact of the changes in unemployment and union coverage that took place is found to be minimal. Copyright 1991 by The London School of Economics and Political Science.

Work History Patterns and the Occupational Attainment of Women

One of the main differences between the labour market behaviour of men and women lies in the discontinuity of labour force attachment exhibited by most women over their lifetime - largely, but not exclusively, for the purpose of raising a family. These interruptions to their labour market experience constitute an important influence on the labour market position of women and provide a potentially important factor in the explanation of their labour market disadvantate. Skills are obtained to a considerable extent through labour market experience and may be blunted in periods of absence from the labour force. In addition, absence from the labour force removes an individual labour market and may thereby reduce the probability of gaining extry to the better jobs on re-entry. The objectives of this paper are firstly to describe the various work-history patterns exhibited by U.K. women and, secondly, to quantify the effect of these life-cycle factors on the occupational attainment, occupational progress and earnings of women. The data source is the National Training Survey (NTS) which provides a unique retrospective longitudinal data set on the work histories of over 50,000 individuals (For details see Manpower Services Commission (1976).(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

The Economic Effects of Multiple Unionism: Evidence from the 1984 Workplace Industrial Relations Survey

This paper uses establishment-level data from the 1984 workplace Industrial Relations Survey to investigate the relationship between the presence of multiple recognised unions and wages, financial performance and the incidence of industrial action. Where multiple unions are present, it is found to be important to distinguish between whether they bargain separately or jointly, and the most important effects are isolated where separate bargains occur. The results suggest that plants with multi-unionism and separate bargaining arrangements pay higher wages, have lower financial performance and are more prone to strike action lasting at least one day.