Mark Baldassare

The Complexity of Public Attitudes Toward Compact Development

Problem: The future of compact development depends in part on understanding and shaping the publics attitudes toward it. Previous studies have suggested life cycle, socioeconomic, attitudinal, and ideological dimensions to preferences regarding development patterns, but rarely have all of these factors been examined systematically across a broad, generalizable sample of respondents. Purpose: To examine public attitudes toward compact development, we asked survey respondents to weigh four important tradeoffs between compact and sprawling growth. We assess the relative influence of a variety of individual characteristics on these attitudes. Methods: We use results from two large-scale, randomized telephone surveys, one conducted in California in 2002 and the other in four other southwestern states in 2007. Using logistic regression, we assess which personal characteristics are associated with stated preferences regarding compact development, and illustrate their degree of influence. Results and conclusions: Support for the compact development alternatives is significant, in some cases exceeding support for traditional, decentralized suburban patterns. However, question wording appears to matter considerably, and individuals’ beliefs about different facets of compact development are often inconsistent. Although race, income, age, and the presence of children in the household are strongly associated with some views on the four tradeoffs, only political ideology is consistently associated with opposition to compact development. Takeaway for practice: The significant support evident for compact development may not translate into actual housing choices unless local governments and lenders do more to support the production of such housing and neighborhood environments. If, as our results suggest, a major constituency for transit-oriented and mixed-use projects is low income residents, renters, and minorities, then well crafted urban infill projects that take into account the needs of these groups will help fulfill the potential of smart growth. Advocates might also frame compact development to appeal more to political conservatives. Research support: The 2002 survey was conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, with financial support from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, James Irvine Foundation, and David and Lucille Packard Foundation. The 2007 survey was conducted and supported by the Institute for Social Science Research at Arizona State University. All views expressed are solely those of the authors, not these organizations.

USING THE “L-WORD” IN PUBLIC: A TEST OF THE SPIRAL OF SILENCE IN CONSERVATIVE ORANGE COUNTY, CALIFORNIA

Are those who know that their views are politically unpopular, such as liberals and Democrats in a conservative region, less willing than others to voice openly their opinions? Do these individuals become increasingly reluctant to speak out in the course of a presidential campaign? According to the spiral of silence theory, individuals who hold viewpoints they perceive as being in the minority or losing ground fear that expressing these views will lead to social isolation; thus they tend to keep silent (Noelle-Neumann 1977, 1984a). In a spiral of silence, the less the public hears the minority opinions, the more reticent those who hold them become, causing the position to recede further and eventually to vanish. The original studies were conducted in Germany; American studies have generally been unable to replicate them, perhaps because these tests have inadequately operationalized speaking out (Noelle-Neumann 1984b; Price and Allen 1990; Salmon and Kline 1984). The current study offers a new method for examining the theory. We analyze a question used in American newspaper surveys, which asks whether respondents are willing to speak on the record to a reporter writing a news story on the survey. The reinterview subjects individuals to the possibility of real public scrutiny and social sanctions. Those who agree to be reinterviewed are indeed likely to find themselves approached by reporters and to have their names and views widely published. The unique political setting of Orange County, California, offered a likely situation for a spiral of silence to develop during the 1988 presi-

The Role of Public Opinion on the California Governor’s Recall in 2003 Populism, Partisanship, and Direct Democracy

The article examines the role of public opinion during the California governor’s recall in 2003 compared to partisanship and ideology. In the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) Statewide Surveys, most Californians reported that their state was headed in the wrong direction, whereas relatively few said that they trusted state government, and most said that they disapproved of the way the governor was handling his job. Californians reported that they liked the recall process in concept, and about one half said that they were pleased with its current use and satisfied with the replacement candidates. The author finds that public support for the recall was consistent over time and related to negative political attitudes and positive recall attitudes when controlling for other factors. The implications for the future use and success of recalls and on what political science has to say about the role of populism and partisanship in the direct democracy movement are discussed.

The Limits of Citizen Support for Direct Democracy

THE CALIFORNIA Journal of Politics & Policy Volume 4, Issue 1 The Limits of Citizen Support for Direct Democracy Joshua J. Dyck University at Buffalo, SUNY Mark Baldassare Public Policy Institute of California Abstract Direct democracy is extraordinarily popular and has become a pervasive policymak- ing tool at the state and local level. Repeated surveys demonstrate that Americans strongly approve of allowing people to vote on citizen-proposed laws, a method currently allowed in about half the states and in many municipalities. This paper ex- amines the extent of this support. Using dimension reduction techniques, we pres- ent evidence that demonstrates that with regards to approval of direct democracy, most voters find themselves in the middle. On principal, they approve of voting on ballot measures, but they express concern about campaigns and would support re- forms. Opinions about direct democracy are unidimensional and close examination of questions demonstrates that Californians will express general support for direct democracy, but are amenable to changes to the process that would fundamentally alter its usage. Keywords: direct democracy, initiative, referendum Copyright

The Role of Candidate Choice in the California Recall Election

Many have argued that the reelection and later recall of Governor Gray Davis in California serves as a perfect example of how primaries draw politics to the extremes by nominating candidates too liberal or conservative for the general electorate. Davis defeated a conservative Republican opponent in his reelection campaign, only to lose in the recall just one year later when there were no primaries to prevent a moderate Republican from running. We test this notion with survey data from both elections. We find that the choice of candidates was important to votes in each election, but evaluations of Davis were far more significant and largely determined the outcome. We conclude with implications for the role of primaries in American politics generally.