Mark C. Strazicich

Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks

The endogenous two-break unit root test of Lumsdaine and Papell is derived assuming no structural breaks under the null. Thus, rejection of the null does not necessarily imply rejection of a unit root per se, but may imply rejection of a unit root without break. Similarly, the alternative does not necessarily imply trend stationarity with breaks, but may indicate a unit root with breaks. In this paper, we propose an endogenous two-break Lagrange multiplier unit root test that allows for breaks under both the null and alternative hypotheses. As a result, rejection of the null unambiguously implies trend stationarity.

Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests

This paper examines the accuracy of break point estimation using the endogenous break unit root tests of Zivot and Andrews (1992) and Perron (1997). We find that these tests tend to identify the break point incorrectly at one-period behind (T[subscript B] - 1) the true break point (T[subscript B]), where bias in estimating the persistence parameter and spurious rejections are the greatest. In addition, this outcome occurs under the null and alternative hypotheses, and more so as the magnitude of the break increases. Consequences of utilizing these endogenous break tests are similar to (incorrectly) omitting the break term B[subscript t] in Perrons (1989) exogenous test. Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Stationarity of health expenditures and GDP: evidence from panel unit root tests with heterogeneous structural breaks

This paper re-examines the stationarity of national health care expenditures and GDP in a panel setting utilizing data from 20 OECD countries over the period from 1960 to 1997. Previous research in this area has recognized the drawback of not allowing for structural breaks in their unit root tests and noted that their empirical results may not be robust. We advance the literature by utilizing a recently developed panel LM unit root test that allows for heterogeneous level shifts. In contrast to previous analyses that did not consider breaks, our results reject the unit root null hypothesis for both series.

Testing the null of stationarity in the presence of a structural break

A test for stationarity in the presence of a structural break is proposed. An unknown break point is endogenously determined at the value minimizing the test statistic. The break point can be estimated reasonably well under the null hypothesis of stationarity, especially when the magnitude of the break is large.

Time-series tests of income convergence with two structural breaks: evidence from 29 countries

This article uses data on real per capita incomes from 1900 to 2001 to test for stochastic convergence in a diverse group of 29 countries. We utilize LM unit root tests to endogenously determine the number and location of structural breaks for each country. These tests avoid spurious rejections that can occur in Dickey–Fuller-type endogenous break tests used in many previous studies. We find significant evidence that incomes are stochastically converging in 23 of the countries, with World War II most often identified as the time period of structural breaks.

Does Tax Smoothing Differ by the Level of Government? Time Series Evidence from Canada and the United States

The tax smoothing theory is examined for Canada and the United States. A distinction is made between federal and local levels of government. Mobility of taxable resources at the state and local levels may constrain the ability of these governments to smooth tax rates. Testing is undertaken in the frequency domain to see if the cumulated periodogram of the first differenced tax rate series differs from white noise. Testing is undertaken with and without correction for time averaging. Results generally support tax smoothing by both federal governments and the Canadian provinces. Tax smoothing is rejected for state and local governments.

Testing the null of cointegration in the presence of a structural break

Abstract We propose a test that examines the null of cointegration while allowing for a structural break in the level and trend. Separate test statistics are developed for the case where the break point is known a priori and where it is not.

International evidence of tax smoothing in a panel of industrial countries

A panel of industrial countries is examined for evidence of ‘tax smoothing’. Tax smoothing results when governments minimize tax distortions over time. The model provides a positive theory of government debt and is due primarily to Barro. Unit root tests are performed in panel data to test the null hypothesis of nonstationary tax rates. Panel regressions are then undertaken to test the null hypothesis that tax rate changes are unpredictable and test for evidence of an alternative hypothesis. Political and economic variables are examined for their ability to predict tax rate changes. Overall, the results cannot reject the null hypotheses and support tax smoothing by national governments.

Trend breaks and non-stationarity in the Yugoslav black market for dollars, 1974–1987

We estimate a model of the black market premium for dollars in Yugoslavia from 1974 to 1987. Unlike previous applications of the model, our analysis addresses non-stationarity in the underlying data by allowing for trend breaks. Endogenous structural break tests indicate the presence of breaks closely associated with the death of Tito and changes in laws affecting the operation of the black market. After accounting for these breaks, we find strong support for the underlying model. In addition, we find evidence consistent with the era of increased government involvement in the black market leading to greater volatility of the premium following regime change.

Structural Breaks in the Game: The Case of Major League Baseball

Comparing talent across time is difficult as productivity changes. To compare talent across time we utilize Major League baseball data from 1871-2010 and time series techniques to determine if the mean and standard deviation of five performance measures are stationary and if structural breaks exist. We identify two structural breaks in the mean slugging percentage: in 1921, the free swinging era of Babe Ruth, and in 1992, the steroid era. Given that productivity changes over time, we develop a simple benchmark technique to compare talent over time and identify superstars. Applications of this measure outside of baseball are also suggested. Key Words: Benchmarking, Major League Baseball, Technology Changes, Structural BreaksTo search for eras in a sports league, we utilize time series tests with structural breaks to identify eras in Major League Baseball performance. Using data from 1871-2010, the mean and standard deviation of four different performance measures are examined to test if deterministic or stochastic trends and structural breaks are present. Throughout, we identify breaks endogenously from the data. Perhaps most notable among our findings, we identify a deterministic trend in the mean slugging percentage in 1921 and 1992, which coincides with the early years of the free swinging (Babe Ruth) era and the modern steroid era, respectively.