Mark D. Levine

Scenarios for a clean energy future

Abstract This paper summarizes the results of a study—Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future—that assess how energy-efficient and clean energy technologies can address key energy and environmental challenges facing the US. A particular focus of this study is the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of different public policies and programs. Hundreds of technologies and approximately 50 policies are analyzed. The study concludes that policies exist that can significantly reduce oil dependence, air pollution, carbon emissions, and inefficiencies in energy production and end-use systems at essentially no net cost to the US economy. The most advanced scenario finds that by the year 2010, the US could bring its carbon dioxide emissions three-quarters of the way back to 1990 levels. The study also concludes that over time energy bill savings in these scenarios can pay for the investments needed to achieve these reductions in energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions.

Changing energy intensity in Chinese industry: The relatively importance of structural shift and intensity change

Abstract We analysed three different sets of energy consumption and output value data using a Laspeyres index method to determine the relative roles of structural shift and real intensity change in Chinas industrial sector between 1980 and 1990. Contrary to prevailing views, we find that real intensity change (economic intensity of industrial subsectors, composed of physical intensity change and other non-structural factors) accounted for most of the large apparent drop in industrial energy intensity in the 1980s. Comparison of economic and physical energy intensity indicators suggests that physical intensity was not the only major cause of real intensity change.

Energy efficiency in China: accomplishments and challenges

Abstract In 1980, the Chinese government made a series of policy decisions to stimulate energy efficiency in a major effort to partially decouple energy and economic growth. These and subsequent policy decisions, combined with a variety of implementation measures, have been exceptionally successful. China is one of the few countries at a relatively early stage of industrialization in which energy demand has consistently — and over many years — grown significantly less rapidly than gross domestic product (GDP). China’s primary energy consumption in 1995 was 1250 million metric tons of standard coal equivalent (Mtce). If energy intensity has remained at the 1977 level, China would have consumed 2700 Mtce in 1996, 2.2 times the actual level. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the policy measures and implementation approaches that China used to achieve these results. We describe the programs that channeled investment into energy efficiency projects, management systems that encouraged factories to reduce energy demand, research and development programs that produced and applied technology to the problem of energy saving, the creation and widespread use of energy conservation service centers throughout China, and other policies. We also describe the present transition to a system that is much more market oriented, and identify some major challenges that need to be dealt with to maintain the extraordinary efforts in China to reduce energy intensity.

Electricity end-use efficiency: Experience with technologies, markets, and policies throughout the world

There is a wealth of experience among industrialized countries with technologies and policies to increase electricity end-use efficiency. Some developing countries are beginning to adopt these technologies and policies as well. Technologies include efficient residual appliances. HVAC equipment, light, motors and efficient industrial processes. A small number of market failures that limit the acceptance of these efficient technologies in both industrialized and developing countries are described. Experience with policies to overcome these failures and promote electricity end-use efficiency, including information programs, appliance efficiency standards, financial incentives to appliance manufacturers, commercial building energy standards, integrated resource planning, and demand-side management, is reviewed.

Energy Use in China: Sectoral Trends and Future Outlook

This report provides a detailed, bottom-up analysis of energy consumption in China. It recalibrates official Chinese government statistics by reallocating primary energy into categories more commonly used in international comparisons. It also provides an analysis of trends in sectoral energy consumption over the past decades. Finally, it assesses the future outlook for the critical period extending to 2020, based on assumptions of likely patterns of economic activity, availability of energy services, and energy intensities. The following are some highlights of the studys findings: * A reallocation of sector energy consumption from the 2000 official Chinese government statistics finds that: * Buildings account for 25 percent of primary energy, instead of 19 percent * Industry accounts for 61 percent of energy instead of 69 percent * Industrial energy made a large and unexpected leap between 2000-2005, growing by an astonishing 50 percent in the 3 years between 2002 and 2005. * Energy consumption in the iron and steel industry was 40 percent higher than predicted * Energy consumption in the cement industry was 54 percent higher than predicted * Overall energy intensity in the industrial sector grew between 2000 and 2003. This is largely due to internal shifts towards the most energy-intensive sub-sectors, an effect which more than counterbalances the impact of efficiency increases. * Industry accounted for 63 percent of total primary energy consumption in 2005 - it is expected to continue to dominate energy consumption through 2020, dropping only to 60 percent by that year. * Even assuming that growth rates in 2005-2020 will return to the levels of 2000-2003, industrial energy will grow from 42 EJ in 2005 to 72 EJ in 2020. * The percentage of transport energy used to carry passengers (instead of freight) will double from 37 percent to 52 percent between 2000 to 2020,. Much of this increase is due to private car ownership, which will increase by a factor of 15 from 5.1 million in 2000 to 77 million in 2020. * Residential appliance ownership will show signs of saturation in urban households. The increase in residential energy consumption will be largely driven by urbanization, since rural homes will continue to have low consumption levels. In urban households, the size of appliances will increase, but its effect will be moderated by efficiency improvements, partially driven by government standards. * Commercial energy increases will be driven both by increases in floor space and by increases in penetration of major end uses such as heating and cooling. These increases will be moderated somewhat, however, by technology changes, such as increased use of heat pumps. * Chinas Medium- and Long-Term Development plan drafted by the central government and published in 2004 calls for a quadrupling of GDP in the period from 2000-2020 with only a doubling in energy consumption during the same period. A bottom-up analysis with likely efficiency improvements finds that energy consumption will likely exceed the goal by 26.12 EJ, or 28 percent. Achievements of these goals will there fore require a more aggressive policy of encouraging energy efficiency.

Potentials and policy implications of energy and material efficiency improvement

There is a growing awareness of the serious problems associated with the provision of sufficient energy to meet human needs and to fuel economic growth world-wide. This has pointed to the need for energy and material efficiency, which would reduce air, water and thermal pollution, as well as waste production. Increasing energy and material efficiency also have the benefits of increased employment, improved balance of imports and exports, increased security of energy supply, and adopting environmentally advantageous energy supply. A large potential exists for energy savings through energy and material efficiency improvements. Technologies are not now, nor will they be, in the foreseeable future, the limiting factors with regard to continuing energy efficiency improvements. There are serious barriers to energy efficiency improvement, including unwillingness to invest, lack of available and accessible information, economic disencentives and organizational barriers. A wide range of policy instruments, as well as innovative approaches have been tried in some countries in order to achieve the desired energy efficiency approaches. These include: regulation and guidelines; economic instruments and incentives; voluntary agreements and actions, information, education and training; and research, development and demonstration. An area that requires particular attention is that of improved international co-operation to develop policy instruments and technologies to meet the needs of developing countries. Material efficiency has not received the attention that it deserves.Consequently, there is a dearth of data on the qualities and quantities for final consumption, thus, making it difficult to formulate policies. Available data, however, suggest that there is a large potential for improved use of many materials in industrialized countries.

Assessment of China's Energy-Saving and Emission-Reduction Accomplishments and Opportunities During the 11th Five Year Plan

E RNEST O RLANDO L AWRENCE B ERKELEY N ATIONAL L ABORATORY Assessment of China’s Energy-Saving and Emission-Reduction Accomplishments and Opportunities During the 11 th Five Year Plan Mark D. Levine, Lynn Price, Nan Zhou, David Fridley, Nathaniel Aden, Hongyou Lu, Michael McNeil, Nina Zheng, Qin Yining China Energy Group, Energy Analysis Department Environmental Energy Technologies Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Ping Yowargana Azure International - Beijing April 2010 This work was supported by the China Sustainable Energy Program of the Energy Foundation through the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.The U.S. Government retains, and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges, that the U.S. Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes.

Social and engineering determinants and their equity implications in residential electricity use

Energy conservation may occur because of either economic constraints or voluntary changes in values and lifestyle, with quite different social welfare implications. We examine the determinants of summer electricity use in single-family dwellings. Income and household size strongly affect energy use, while factors related to values and lifestyle are less important. A causal model approach is used to show how the social variables are related to energy use through intervening engineering/hardware variables.

The role of building energy efficiency in managing atmospheric carbon dioxide

Abstract This paper provides an overview of recent findings concerning trends and prospects for carbon dioxide emissions from the buildings sector. Reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the US Department of Energy note that buildings account for 25–30% of total energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. This means building energy use contributes 10–12% of the increasing net radiative forcing that is inducing global warming. On average, between 1980 and 1990, CO 2 emissions from buildings have grown by 1.7% per year with rates of growth four times greater in developing countries. The high growth in developing countries is mainly due to changes in structural factors (demographics, economic growth) and increases in the amount of energy services demanded by energy consumers. Experience in OECD countries has shown that technologies and policies exist to significantly reduce energy demand in buildings. Some of the main policy instruments to reduce energy demand include energy efficiency standards for buildings and appliances, voluntary agreements, financial/economic incentives, and market transformation programs. When converted to carbon emissions, energy forecasts of the World Energy Council suggest that business-as-usual trends will result in building CO 2 emissions growing by 2.6% a year to the year 2020, with the vast majority of the growth taking place in non-OECD countries. Significant opportunities to help raise building energy efficiency at home and abroad exist, should countries begin to more fully commit to mitigating greenhouse gases. Commitments by countries to contain the growth of greenhouse gas emissions in an economically sound manner is likely to induce significant increases in the investment in energy-efficient technologies.

China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)

China has ambitious goals for economic development, and must find ways to power the achievement of those goals that are both environmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the global economy presents opportunities for technological improvement and access to energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies and measures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired and used. These opportunities and options, along with long-term social, demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energy system, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China s Sustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, the Energy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organization under Chinas Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), sought to explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the Tenth Five-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable development strategy. Chinas ability to forge a sustainable energy path has global consequences. Chinas annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprise nearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of global emissions. Most of Chinas greenhouse gas emissions are in the form of CO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year, Chinas carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760 million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by the US (CDIAC, 2003). As Chinas energy consumption continues to increase, greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into the future. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions will increase can vary significantly depending on whether sustainable development is recognized as an important policy goal. If the Chinese Government chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency and improve the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible that future economic growth may be supported by a relatively lower increase in energy consumption. Over the past 20 years, energy intensity in China has been reduced partly through technological and structural changes; current annual emissions may be as much as 600 Mt-C lower than they would have been without intensity improvements. China must take into account its unique circumstances in considering how to achieve a sustainable development path. This study considers the feasibility of such an achievement, while remaining open to exploring avenues of sustainable development that may be very different from existing models. Three scenarios were prepared to assist the Chinese Government to explore the issues, options and uncertainties that it confronts in shaping a sustainable development path compatible with Chinas unique circumstances. The Promoting Sustainability scenario offers a systematic and complete interpretation of the social and economic goals proposed in the Tenth Five-Year Plan. The possibility that environmental sustainability would receive low priority is covered in the Ordinary Effort scenario. Aggressive pursuit of sustainable development measures along with rapid economic expansion is featured in the Green Growth scenario. The scenarios differ in the degree to which a common set of energy supply and efficiency policies are implemented. In cons ultation with technology and policy experts domestically and abroad, ERI developed strategic scenarios and quantified them using an energy accounting model. The scenarios consider, in unprecedented detail, changes in energy demand structure and technology, as well as energy supply, from 1998 to 2020. The scenarios in this study are an important step in estimating realistic targets for energy efficiency and energy supply development that are in line with a sustainable development strategy. The scenarios also help analyze and explore ways in which China might slow growth in greenhouse gas emissions. The key results have important policy implications: Depending on how demand for energy services is met, China could quadruple its gross domestic product between 1998 and 2020 with energy use rising by 70 percent to 130 percent (Figure 1). Continual progress in improving the efficiency and structure of industry is crucial to maintaining economic growth with minimal growth in energy use. In some industries, output may grow with no rise in energy use at all. Swelling ranks of motor vehicles will deepen Chinas dependence on imported oil up to 320 Mt per year by 2020 an amount that global markets can easily supply. To moderate growth in transportation energy use, the strong promotion of convenient public transport will be needed in addition to tighter fuel efficiency standards and advanced vehicles. Fuel switching, efficient appliances, better heating and cooling systems, and improved building envelope technologies will be needed in the fast-growing buildings sector. By 2020, China will still be dependent on coal for 54 percent to 65 percent of its primary energy, even with rapid growth of other fuels and substantial progress in raising the efficiency of coal use. Natural gas supplies, including imported pipeline gas and LNG, will have to expand tremendously to meet demand from households, commercial buildings, and electric utilities; obtaining sufficient supply is a crucial uncertainty. Sustainable growth in electricity generation will require strong policy support for a range of technologies, including advanced coal-fired generation, natural gas, hydropower, non-hydro renewables, and nuclear. If sustainable policies for energy development are not pursued, energy-related carbon emissions could more than double between 1998 and 2020, but if such policies are aggressively pursued carbon emissions could increase by only 50 percent. Although Chinas energy sector faces many future challenges, it is technically feasible for China to progress towards meeting its development goals while limiting the growth of energy use. However, each of the three scenarios in this report will require significant, long-term policy efforts to achieve the energy and emission trajectories described in the following pages.