Mark DeSantis

Nonlinear Dynamics and Stability in a Multigroup Asset Flow Model

The multi-group asset flow model for asset price dynamics incorporates distinct motivations, e.g., trend and fundamentals (value) and assessments of value by different groups of investors. The stability and bifurcation properties are established for the curve of equilibria. We prove that if all trader groups focus on fundamentals, then all equilibria are stable. For systems in which there is one fundamental and one momentum (trend) group, we establish conditions for stability. In particular, an equilibrium that is stable becomes unstable as the time scale on which momentum investors focus diminishes. The computations examine the excursions, which we define as the maximum deviation in price of the trajectory from its initial price located near the curve of equilibria.

Land assembly with taxes, not takings

ABSTRACT We use a novel tax mechanism – ‘rejected offer reassessment’ (ROR) – in laboratory experiments to discourage seller holdout and facilitate land assembly. Under this mechanism, if a landowner rejects a developer’s offer, his taxable property value is reassessed to be equal to the rejected offer, increasing his taxes. We find that, relative to a control treatment, ROR discourages the magnitude of seller holdout (but not its frequency) and increases the rate of successful land assembly by almost 60%. It also increases the gains from trade by 22.1% relative to the control treatment, but the difference is not statistically significant.

Land Assembly Without Eminent Domain: Laboratory Experiments of Two Tax Mechanisms

We use laboratory experiments to test the ability of two self-assessment tax mechanisms to discourage seller holdout and facilitate land assembly. Each mechanism requires a seller to declare a price at which he is willing to sell his property. The incentive to overstate the value is mitigated by using the declared price to assess a property tax. The incentive to understate the value is mitigated by allowing developers to buy the property at the declared price. One tax mechanism uses tax formula that is complex to calculate but incentive compatible to elicit sellers’ true reservation values. The second uses a flat tax rate that is easy to implement but not incentive compatible. We find that sellers overstate their reservation values under both tax mechanisms. Nevertheless, both mechanisms increase the rate of successful land assembly by 67% and the gains from trade by more than 120% relative to a control treatment. Given their equal performance, the flat tax rate seems the best option given the easy of its implementation.

What Makes a Good Trader? On the Role of Intuition and Reflection on Trader Performance

Using simulations and experiments, we pinpoint two main drivers of trader performance: cognitive reflection and theory of mind. Both dimensions facilitate traders’ learning about asset valuation. Cognitive reflection helps traders use market signals to update their beliefs whereas theory of mind offers traders crucial hints on the quality of those signals. We show these skills to be complementary because traders benefit from understanding the quality of market signals only if they are capable of processing them. Cognitive reflection relates to previous Behavioral Finance research as it is the best predictor of a trader’s ability to avoid commonly-observed behavioral biases.