Mark Fossett

Ethnic Preferences, Social Distance Dynamics, and Residential Segregation: Theoretical Explorations Using Simulation Analysis∗

In this paper I consider theories of residential segregation that emphasize social distance and ethnic preference dynamics. I argue that these theories are more compelling than many critics have supposed, and I conclude that they deserve to be considered more carefully. I then use simulation methodology to assess the potential impact of social distance and ethnic preference dynamics on ethnic segregation under certain theoretically interesting conditions. Based on the results from the simulation analyses, I offer three conclusions: (1) status preferences and status dynamics have the capacity to produce high levels of status segregation but do not produce high levels of ethnic segregation under the specified simulation conditions; (2) ethnic preferences can, under certain theoretically interesting conditions specified in these simulations, produce high levels of ethnic segregation in the absence of housing discrimination; and (3) ethnic preferences and social distance dynamics can, when combined with status preferences, status dynamics, and demographic and urban-structural settings common in American cities, produce highly stable patterns of multi-group segregation and hyper-segregation (i.e., high levels of ethnic segregation on multiple dimensions) of minority populations. Based on these model-based theoretical explorations I speculate that the persistence of segregation in recent decades may have been overdetermined, that is, it may have been sustained by multiple sufficient causes including not only discrimination, but also social distance and preference dynamics. This raises the possibility that reductions in housing discrimination may not necessarily lead to large declines in ethnic segregation in the short run because social distance and preference dynamics may be able to sustain ethnic segregation at surprisingly high levels in the absence of housing discrimination. *An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meetings of the American Sociological Association Chicago, Illinois, August 1999. I thank two anonymous reviewers for helpful suggestions for improvement of an earlier version of this paper. The research reported here has was facilitated in part by funding support from NIH Grants R43HD38199 (Simulating Residential Segregation Dynamics: Phase I) and R44HD038199 (Simulating Residential Segregation Dynamics: Phase II). In addition, the research reported here was made possible in part by faculty development leave support provided by Texas A&M University.

A Methodological Review of the Sex Ratio: Alternatives for Comparative Research.

In this paper we examine conceptual methodological and practical issues associated with measuring the sex ratio in comparative research. We give particular attention to measuring sex ratios for the black population. Census data are used to develop empirical measures for U.S. metropolitan areas and nonmetropolitan areas of Louisiana.... The impact of the sex ratio on community-level variation in marriage patterns and family formation for the black population is addressed. (EXCERPT)

Understanding the social context of the Schelling segregation model

A recent article [Vinkovic D, Kirman A (2006) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103:19261–19265] showing that the Schelling model has a physical analogue extends our understanding of the model. However, prior research has already outlined a mathematical basis for the Schelling model and simulations based on it have already enhanced our understanding of the social dynamics that underlie the model, something that the physical analogue does not address. Research in social science has provided a formal basis for the segregative outcomes resulting from the residential selection process and simulations have replicated relevant spatial outcomes under different specifications of the residential dynamics. New and increasingly detailed survey data on preferences demonstrates the embeddedness of the Schelling selection process in the social behaviors of choosing alternative residential compositions. It also demonstrates that, in the multicultural context, seemingly mild preferences for living with similar neighbors carry the potential to be strong determinants for own race selectivity and residential segregation.

Mate Availability and Family Structure among African Americans in U.S. Metropolitan Areas.

Census and vital statistics data for U.S. metropolitan areas in 1980 were analyzed to investigate the effects of mate availability mens and womens levels of socioeconomic status and employment level of public assistance population size and region on several aspects of family formation and family structure among African Americans. As predicted by theory mate availability as measured by the sex ratio had a positive effect on marriage prevalence for women and a negative effect on marriage prevalence for men....Mens socioeconomic status had positive effects on mens and womens marriage prevalence the prevalence of husband-wife families the percentage of children residing in husband-wife families and the percentage of marital births. Womens socioeconomic status and level of public assistance had negative effects on these variables. We conclude that mate availability mens socioeconomic status womens status and economic independence are important determinants of African American family formation and family structure. (EXCERPT)

Racial Occupational Inequality, 1940-1980: National and Regional Trends.

We replicate previous research investigating changes in racial occupational inequality disaggregated by age and level of educational attainment (Hare, 1965; Siegel, 1965; Johnson and Sell, 1976) and then extend this research in four ways. First, wre update previous analyses by examining change in inequality between 1970 and 1980. Second, wre perform separate analyses by region as tell as analyses for the nation as a whole. Third, we investigate race differences in occupational attainment using the Index of Net Difference, a measure of ordinal inequality, as well as the more familiar Index of Dissimilarity (used in previous research), a measure of nominal differentiation. Fourth, wae investigate changes in inequality over the period 1940 to 1980 using constant age, education, and occupation categories. Our analyses reveal a number of significant findings including: (a) the Index of Net Difference reveals patterns of change in racial inequality over time that cannot be detected using the Index of Dissimilarity; (b) change in inequality favored whites for the nation as a whole and the non-South during the 1940s, andfavored blacks during the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, and (c) change in inequality favored whites for the South during the 1940s and 1950s andfavored blacks during the 1960s and 1970s.

Effects of city size, shape, and form, and neighborhood size and shape in agent-based models of residential segregation: are Schelling-style preference effects robust?

This paper investigates the effects of city size, shape, and form, and neighborhood size and shape in agent-based models of residential segregation. We find that, in many key respects, model-generated segregation outcomes are not influenced in important ways by variation in these factors. For example, the expression of segregation based on agent preferences for coethnic contact in agent-based models does not vary with city size, city shape, city form, or the shape of neighborhoods involved in agent vision, or the use of distance-decay functions for evaluating neighbors. These findings indicate that results obtained from model-based segregation studies are likely to be robust relative to choices regarding these aspects of model specification. We do find important effects of the size or scale of neighborhoods involved in agent vision: model-generated segregation outcomes vary in complex ways with agent vision. Significantly, however, the effect of neighborhood size or scale does not appear to vary in important ways with neighborhood shape. Thus, what is important is the scale of agent vision—that is, the number of neighbors they ‘see’—not the particular spatial arrangement of those neighbors. With the exception of the effect of the spatial scale of agent vision, our results suggest that researchers can generally presume that their findings regarding how model-generated segregation outcomes vary with substantive factors, such as agent preferences for coethnic contact or the ethnic demography of the city, are not contingent on choices regarding model implementation of city size, city shape, city form, and neighborhood shape. These findings are welcome because they suggest that simulation studies can devote less attention to technical specification choices and more attention to assessing substantive questions regarding the effects of social dynamics and sociodemographic distributions in the context of model systems.

Mate availability and African American family structure in the U.S. nonmetropolitan south, 1960-1990

We examine structural determinants of African American marriage and family formation for a sample of nonmetropolitan counties in the U.S. South over three decades. As predicted higher sex ratios are associated with a higher prevalence of marriage for women a higher prevalence of husband-wife families higher percentages of children living in husband-wife families and higher percentages of marital births. Mens socioeconomic opportunities and status have positive effects on these variables whereas womens socioeconomic opportunities and status public assistance levels and community size have negative effects. Finally mate availability has different effects on the prevalence of marriage for women and men. Our results show that recent changes in African American family patterns are occurring in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan settings and that the same structural factors operate in similar ways in both contexts. (EXCERPT)

Including Preference and Social Distance Dynamics in Multi-Factor Theories of Segregation

All agree that many factors contribute to ethnic segregation, but controversy continues regarding the relevance of particular factors. In my paper I acknowledge the importance of discrimination, but I direct attention to the role of ethnic preferences and social distance dynamics. I do so because many dismiss the relevance of these factors for contemporary segregation without engaging formal theories and analytic models which suggest that dynamics associated with in-group attraction and out-group avoidance may take on increasing importance as past forms of discrimination slowly fade. Agent-based modeling shows promise for exploring the issue of whether prejudice against out-groups and affinity toward in-groups can build and sustain segregation in the absence of discrimination. Research drawing on this approach is at an early stage of development but is significant for highlighting two things. One is that the implications of preferences for segregation are strongly conditioned by the ethnic demography of the city. Another, closely tied to the first, is that different views about the implications of preferences for segregation often hinge on inconsistencies in how notions of integration and segregation are applied in discussions of individual location choices, the ethnic mix of single neighborhoods, and the ethnic distributions for all neighborhoods in a city. Critiques of agent-based models of Schelling-style preference effects will carry more force when they outline models indicating how location decisions guided by preferences documented in surveys can produce or sustain integration.

The Structure of Disadvantage.

Deprivation and social disadvantage / Muriel Brown -- Who suffers social disadvantage? / Richard Berthoud -- Poverty and gender / Hilary Land -- Racial disadvantage / Alan Little and Diana Robbins -- Employment and deprivation in an urban labour market /Richard Brown and Jim Cousins -- The labour market and family background / Holly Sutherland -- Council housing and disadvantage / Bernard Ineichen -- Housing deprivation / Linda McDowell -- Some structural factors in social disadvantage / Peter Wedge.

Statistical Discrimination in Employment Its Practice, Conceptualization, and Implications for Public Policy

The phenomenon of statistical discrimination may take on increasing importance in the future as “traditional” prejudice-based discrimination slowly fades. This article considers how statistical discrimination compares with perspectives on discrimination in sociology, economics, and law. Statistical discrimination fits well with mainstream perspectives in economics, suggesting it is likely to be a common practice and endure even as racial prejudice declines. Statistical discrimination is less central in sociological perspectives on discrimination because they tend to focus on prejudice-based discrimination, ethnic conflict and stratification, and how ethnic group interests are embedded in social institutions. In the area of law, statistical discrimination is treated differently in different situations—sometimes allowable, other times prohibited. The authors note some characteristics of statistical discrimination that set it apart from other forms of discrimination and consider whether standard policies aimed at reducing racial discrimination in employment are likely to be effective in combating statistical discrimination.