Mark Hebblewhite

Status and Ecological Effects of the World’s Largest Carnivores

Background The largest terrestrial species in the order Carnivora are wide-ranging and rare because of their positions at the top of food webs. They are some of the world’s most admired mammals and, ironically, some of the most imperiled. Most have experienced substantial population declines and range contractions throughout the world during the past two centuries. Because of the high metabolic demands that come with endothermy and large body size, these carnivores often require large prey and expansive habitats. These food requirements and wide-ranging behavior often bring them into conflict with humans and livestock. This, in addition to human intolerance, renders them vulnerable to extinction. Large carnivores face enormous threats that have caused massive declines in their populations and geographic ranges, including habitat loss and degradation,persecution, utilization, and depletion of prey. We highlight how these threats can affect theconservation status and ecological roles of this planet’s 31 largest carnivores. Ecologically important carnivores. Seven species of large carnivores with documented ecological effects involving (A) “tri-trophic cascades” from large carnivores to prey to plants, (B) “mesopredator cascades” from large carnivores to mesopredators to prey of mesopredators, and (C) both tri-trophic and mesopredator cascades. [Photo credits: sea otter (N. Smith), puma (W. Ripple), lion (K. Abley), leopard (A. Dey), Eurasianlynx (B. Elmhagen), dingo (A. McNab), gray wolf (D. Mclaughlin)] Advances Based on empirical studies, trophic cascades have been documented for 7 of the 31 largest mammalian carnivores (not including pinnipeds). For each of these species (see figure), human actions have both caused declines and contributed to recovery, providing “natural experiments” for quantifying their effects on food-web and community structure. Large carnivores deliver economic and ecosystem services via direct and indirect pathways that help maintain mammal, avian, invertebrate,and herpetofauna abundance or richness. Further, they affect other ecosystem processes and conditions, such as scavenger subsidies, disease dynamics, carbon storage, stream morphology, and crop production. The maintenance or recovery of ecologically effective densities of large carnivores is an important tool for maintaining the structure and function of diverse ecosystems. Outlook Current ecological knowledge indicates that large carnivores are necessary for the maintenanceof biodiversity and ecosystem function. Human actions cannot fully replace the role of large carnivores. Additionally, the future of increasing human resource demands and changing climate will affect biodiversity and ecosystem resiliency. These facts, combined with the importance of resiliente cosystems, indicate that large carnivores and their habitats should be maintained and restored wherever possible. Preventing the extinction of these species and the loss of their irreplaceable ecological function and importance will require novel, bold, and deliberate actions. We propose a Global Large Carnivore Initiative to coordinate local, national, and international research, conservation, and policy. Preserving Predators Large-bodied animals play essential roles in ecosystem structuring and stability through both indirect and direct trophic effects. In recent times, humans have disrupted this trophic structure through both habitat destruction and active extirpation of large predators, resulting in large declines in numbers and vast contractions in their geographic ranges. Ripple et al. (10.1126/science.1241484; see the Perspective by Roberts) review the status, threats, and ecological importance of the 31 largest mammalian carnivores globally. These species are responsible for a suite of direct and indirect stabilizing effects in ecosystems. Current levels of decline are likely to result in ecologically ineffective population densities and can lead to ecosystem instability. The preservation of large carnivores can be challenging because of their need for large ranges and their potential for human conflict. However, the authors demonstrate that the preservation of large carnivores is ecologically important and that the need for conservation action is immediate, given the severity of the threats they face. Large carnivores face serious threats and are experiencing massive declines in their populations and geographic ranges around the world. We highlight how these threats have affected the conservation status and ecological functioning of the 31 largest mammalian carnivores on Earth. Consistent with theory, empirical studies increasingly show that large carnivores have substantial effects on the structure and function of diverse ecosystems. Significant cascading trophic interactions, mediated by their prey or sympatric mesopredators, arise when some of these carnivores are extirpated from or repatriated to ecosystems. Unexpected effects of trophic cascades on various taxa and processes include changes to bird, mammal, invertebrate, and herpetofauna abundance or richness; subsidies to scavengers; altered disease dynamics; carbon sequestration; modified stream morphology; and crop damage. Promoting tolerance and coexistence with large carnivores is a crucial societal challenge that will ultimately determine the fate of Earth’s largest carnivores and all that depends upon them, including humans.

HUMAN ACTIVITY MEDIATES A TROPHIC CASCADE CAUSED BY WOLVES

Experimental evidence of trophic cascades initiated by large vertebrate predators is rare in terrestrial ecosystems. A serendipitous natural experiment provided an opportunity to test the trophic cascade hypothesis for wolves (Canis lupus) in Banff National Park, Canada. The first wolf pack recolonized the Bow Valley of Banff National Park in 1986. High human activity partially excluded wolves from one area of the Bow Valley (low-wolf area), whereas wolves made full use of an adjacent area (high-wolf area). We investigated the effects of differential wolf predation between these two areas on elk (Cervus elaphus) population density, adult female survival, and calf recruitment; aspen (Populus tremuloides) recruitment and browse intensity; willow (Salix spp.) production, browsing intensity, and net growth; beaver (Castor canadensis) density; and riparian songbird diversity, evenness, and abundance. We compared effects of recolonizing wolves on these response variables using the log response ratio between the low-wolf and high-wolf treatments. Elk population density diverged over time in the two treatments, such that elk were an order of magnitude more numerous in the low-wolf area compared to the high-wolf area at the end of the study. Annual survival of adult female elk was 62% in the high-wolf area vs. 89% in the low-wolf area. Annual recruitment of calves was 15% in the high-wolf area vs. 27% without wolves. Wolf exclusion decreased aspen recruitment, willow production, and increased willow and aspen browsing intensity. Beaver lodge density was negatively correlated to elk density, and elk herbivory had an indirect negative effect on riparian songbird diversity and abundance. These alternating patterns across trophic levels support the wolf-caused trophic cascade hypothesis. Human activity strongly mediated these cascade effects, through a depressing effect on habitat use by wolves. Thus, conservation strategies based on the trophic importance of large carnivores have increased support in terrestrial ecosystems.

Distinguishing technology from biology: a critical review of the use of GPS telemetry data in ecology

In the past decade, ecologists have witnessed vast improvements in our ability to collect animal movement data through animal-borne technology, such as through GPS or ARGOS systems. However, more data does not necessarily yield greater knowledge in understanding animal ecology and conservation. In this paper, we provide a review of the major benefits, problems and potential misuses of GPS/Argos technology to animal ecology and conservation. Benefits are obvious, and include the ability to collect fine-scale spatio-temporal location data on many previously impossible to study animals, such as ocean-going fish, migratory songbirds and long-distance migratory mammals. These benefits come with significant problems, however, imposed by frequent collar failures and high cost, which often results in weaker study design, reduced sample sizes and poorer statistical inference. In addition, we see the divorcing of biologists from a field-based understanding of animal ecology to be a growing problem. Despite these difficulties, GPS devices have provided significant benefits, particularly in the conservation and ecology of wide-ranging species. We conclude by offering suggestions for ecologists on which kinds of ecological questions would currently benefit the most from GPS/Argos technology, and where the technology has been potentially misused. Significant conceptual challenges remain, however, including the links between movement and behaviour, and movement and population dynamics.

A MULTI‐SCALE TEST OF THE FORAGE MATURATION HYPOTHESIS IN A PARTIALLY MIGRATORY UNGULATE POPULATION

The forage maturation hypothesis (FMH) proposes that ungulate migration is driven by selection for high forage quality. Because quality declines with plant maturation, but intake declines at low biomass, ungulates are predicted to select for intermediate forage biomass to maximize energy intake by following phenological gradients during the growing season. We tested the FMH in the Canadian Rocky Mountains by comparing forage availability and selection by both migrant and nonmigratory resident elk (Cervus elaphus) during three growing seasons from 2002-2004. First, we confirmed that the expected trade-off between forage quality and quantity occurred across vegetation communities. Next, we modeled forage biomass and phenology during the growing season by combining ground and remote-sensing approaches. The growing season started 2.2 days earlier every 1 km east of the continental divide, was delayed by 50 days for every 1000-m increase in elevation, and occurred 8 days earlier on south aspects. Migrant and resident selection for forage biomass was then compared across three spatial scales (across the study area, within summer home ranges, and along movement paths) using VHF and GPS telemetry locations from 119 female elk. Migrant home ranges occurred closer to the continental divide in areas of higher topographical diversity, resulting in migrants consistently selecting for intermediate biomass at the two largest scales, but not at the finest scale along movement paths. In contrast, residents selected maximum forage biomass across all spatial scales. To evaluate the consequences of selection, we compared exposure at telemetry locations of migrant and resident elk to expected forage biomass and digestibility. The expected digestibility for migrant elk in summer was 6.5% higher than for residents, which was corroborated with higher fecal nitrogen levels for migrants. The observed differences in digestibility should increase migrant elk body mass, pregnancy rates, and adult and calf survival rates. Whether bottom-up effects of improved forage quality are realized will ultimately depend on trade-offs between forage and predation. Nevertheless, this study provides comprehensive evidence that montane ungulate migration leads to greater access to higher-quality forage relative to nonmigratory congeners, as predicted by the forage maturation hypothesis, resulting primarily from large-scale selection patterns.

Ecological Consequences of Sea-Ice Decline

After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic sea-ice minima on record, including the historically low minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent developments in the study of ecological responses to sea-ice decline. Sea-ice loss emerges as an important driver of marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics, influencing productivity, species interactions, population mixing, gene flow, and pathogen and disease transmission. Major challenges in the near future include assigning clearer attribution to sea ice as a primary driver of such dynamics, especially in terrestrial systems, and addressing pressures arising from human use of arctic coastal and near-shore areas as sea ice diminishes.

Resolving issues of imprecise and habitat-biased locations in ecological analyses using GPS telemetry data

Global positioning system (GPS) technologies collect unprecedented volumes of animal location data, providing ever greater insight into animal behaviour. Despite a certain degree of inherent imprecision and bias in GPS locations, little synthesis regarding the predominant causes of these errors, their implications for ecological analysis or solutions exists. Terrestrial deployments report 37 per cent or less non-random data loss and location precision 30 m or less on average, with canopy closure having the predominant effect, and animal behaviour interacting with local habitat conditions to affect errors in unpredictable ways. Home-range estimates appear generally robust to contemporary levels of location imprecision and bias, whereas movement paths and inferences of habitat selection may readily become misleading. There is a critical need for greater understanding of the additive or compounding effects of location imprecision, fix-rate bias, and, in the case of resource selection, map error on ecological insights. Technological advances will help, but at present analysts have a suite of ad hoc statistical corrections and modelling approaches available—tools that vary greatly in analytical complexity and utility. The success of these solutions depends critically on understanding the error-inducing mechanisms, and the biggest gap in our current understanding involves species-specific behavioural effects on GPS performance.

The interpretation of habitat preference metrics under use–availability designs

Models of habitat preference are widely used to quantify animal–habitat relationships, to describe and predict differential space use by animals, and to identify habitat that is important to an animal (i.e. that is assumed to influence fitness). Quantifying habitat preference involves the statistical comparison of samples of habitat use and availability. Preference is therefore contingent upon both of these samples. The inferences that can be made from use versus availability designs are influenced by subjectivity in defining what is available to the animal, the problem of quantifying the accessibility of available resources and the framework in which preference is modelled. Here, we describe these issues, document the conditional nature of preference and establish the limits of inferences that can be drawn from these analyses. We argue that preference is not interpretable as reflecting the intrinsic behavioural motivations of the animal, that estimates of preference are not directly comparable among different samples of availability and that preference is not necessarily correlated with the value of habitat to the animal. We also suggest that preference is context-dependent and that functional responses in preference resulting from changing availability are expected. We conclude by describing advances in analytical methods that begin to resolve these issues.

Habitat–performance relationships: finding the right metric at a given spatial scale

The field of habitat ecology has been muddled by imprecise terminology regarding what constitutes habitat, and how importance is measured through use, selection, avoidance and other bio-statistical terminology. Added to the confusion is the idea that habitat is scale-specific. Despite these conceptual difficulties, ecologists have made advances in understanding ‘how habitats are important to animals’, and data from animal-borne global positioning system (GPS) units have the potential to help this clarification. Here, we propose a new conceptual framework to connect habitats with measures of animal performance itself—towards assessing habitat–performance relationship (HPR). Long-term studies will be needed to estimate consequences of habitat selection for animal performance. GPS data from wildlife can provide new approaches for studying useful correlates of performance that we review. Recent examples include merging traditional resource selection studies with information about resources used at different critical life-history events (e.g. nesting, calving, migration), uncovering habitats that facilitate movement or foraging and, ultimately, comparing resources used through different life-history strategies with those resulting in death. By integrating data from GPS receivers with other animal-borne technologies and combining those data with additional life-history information, we believe understanding the drivers of HPRs will inform animal ecology and improve conservation.

Correlation and studies of habitat selection: problem, red herring or opportunity?

With the advent of new technologies, animal locations are being collected at ever finer spatio-temporal scales. We review analytical methods for dealing with correlated data in the context of resource selection, including post hoc variance inflation techniques, ‘two-stage’ approaches based on models fit to each individual, generalized estimating equations and hierarchical mixed-effects models. These methods are applicable to a wide range of correlated data problems, but can be difficult to apply and remain especially challenging for use–availability sampling designs because the correlation structure for combinations of used and available points are not likely to follow common parametric forms. We also review emerging approaches to studying habitat selection that use fine-scale temporal data to arrive at biologically based definitions of available habitat, while naturally accounting for autocorrelation by modelling animal movement between telemetry locations. Sophisticated analyses that explicitly model correlation rather than consider it a nuisance, like mixed effects and state-space models, offer potentially novel insights into the process of resource selection, but additional work is needed to make them more generally applicable to large datasets based on the use–availability designs. Until then, variance inflation techniques and two-stage approaches should offer pragmatic and flexible approaches to modelling correlated data.

Multiscale wolf predation risk for elk: does migration reduce risk?

While migration is hypothesized to reduce predation risk for ungulates, there have been few direct empirical tests of this hypothesis. Furthermore, few studies examined multiscale predation risk avoidance by migrant ungulates, yet recent research reveals that predator–prey interactions occur at multiple scales. We test the predation risk reduction hypothesis at two spatial scales in a partially migratory elk (Cervus elaphus) population by comparing exposure of migrant and resident elk to wolf (Canis lupus) predation risk. We used GPS and VHF telemetry data collected from 67 migrant and 44 resident elk over the summers of 2002–2004 in and adjacent to Banff National Park (BNP), Canada. We used wolf GPS and VHF telemetry data to estimate predation risk as a function of the relative probability of wolf occurrence weighted by a spatial density model that adjusted for varying pack sizes. We validated the predation risk model using independent data on wolf-killed elk, and showed that combining wolf presence and spatial density best predicted where an elk was likely to be killed. Predation risk on summer ranges of migrant elk was reduced by 70% compared to within resident elk summer ranges. Because wolves avoided areas near high human activity, however, fine-scale selection by resident elk for areas near high human activity reduced their predation risk exposure to only 15% higher than migrants, a difference significant in only one of three summers. Finally, during actual migration, elk were exposed to 1.7 times more predation risk than residents, even though migration was rapid. Our results support the hypothesis that large-scale migrations can reduce predation. However, we also show that where small-scale spatial variation in predation risk exists, nonmigratory elk may equally reduce predation risk as effectively as migrants under some circumstances.