Mark M. Gray

Declining Voter Turnout in Advanced Industrial Democracies, 1950 to 1997 The Effects of Declining Group Mobilization

Past comparative voting-behavior research has revealed that electoral institutions can explain much of the variation in voter turnout between nations. This study takes an alternative and dynamic approach by identifying and explaining a pattern of turnout decline within industrial democracies, which is beyond purely institutional explanation. Multivariate analysis of a pooled cross section of 18 industrial democracies between 1950 and 1997 suggests that turnout decline can best be explained in terms of changing patterns of group mobilization and electorate demographics. The authors specifically point to the decline of unions and labor parties, which have traditionally been associated with the mobilization of peripheral voters and the real increases in the cost of mobilization. The authors control for institutional changes and find that they are less useful in explaining variation in turnout within advanced industrial democracies.

International Integration and National Corruption

We argue that greater degrees of international integration lead to lower levels of corruption, which we define as the misuse of public office for private gain. We theorize that international factors affect a countrys level of corruption through two principal channels. One acts through economic incentives, altering for various actors the costs and benefits of engaging in corrupt acts. The second mode is normative. Prevailing norms in international society delegitimate and stigmatize corruption. Countries that are more integrated into international society are more exposed to economic and normative pressures against corruption. We therefore test the following hypothesis: the more a country is tied into international networks of exchange, communication, and organization, the lower its level of corruption is likely to be. The analysis of data from approximately 150 countries strongly confirms our expectation.

Women and Globalization: A Study of 180 Countries, 1975–2000

How do rising levels of international interconnectedness affect social, economic, and political conditions for women? Research on gender and international relations frequently offers clear propositions but seldom submits them to broad, quantitative testing. This article begins to fill that gap. We advance the hypothesis that, on balance and over time, increasing cross-national exchange and communication lead to improvements in womens status and equality. Economic aspects of globalization can bring new opportunities and resources to women. But equally important, globalization promotes the diffusion of ideas and norms of equality for women. In an analysis of 180 countries from 1975 to 2000, employing cross-sectional–time-series regression techniques, we examine the impact of several measures of globalization on womens levels of life expectancy, literacy, and participation in the economy and parliamentary office. International trade, foreign direct investment, membership in the United Nations (UN) and World Bank, and ratification of the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW), are associated with improved conditions for women.A grant from the Center for Global Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of California, Irvine, supported this research. The authors are grateful for constructive comments from participants in the faculty research colloquium of the Department of Political Science at Brigham Young University. The authors also received helpful suggestions from their fellow panelists at the 2004 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association and from the editor of IO, Lisa Martin, and two anonymous reviewers.

Vindicating Anthony Downs

Positive turnout rates in the United States and elsewhere are widely considered “an embarrassing limitation of the economic approach to politics” because, for any one voter, “the costs of casting a ballot in any large election are almost always greater than the potential benefits, which are dependent on the unlikely occurrence of casting the winning or tie vote in an election” ( Knack 1992 , 133). Green and Shapiro ( 1994 ), whose scathing critique of the rational choice field centers on the work of Anthony Downs ( 1957 ), trenchantly put it: “Rational choice theorists have trotted out an astonishing variety of conjectures about the costs and benefits of voting, in the process generating an enormous literature, possibly larger in terms of academic citations and sheer bibliographic length than any other rational choice literature in American politics” (47–48), yet they still have no answer as to why people vote when, according to their arguments, reason says they ought not. Grofman ( 1993 ), paraphrasing Morris Fiorina, has referred to the failure of rational choice theory to explain turnout as the “paradox that ate rational choice.” We are indebted to Clover Behrend-Gethard for bibliographic assistance.

Promising Parties: Can Parties in Government still Deliver?

The ability of political parties in advanced industrial democracies to maintain the traditional linkage between voters and their governments by making and attempting to fulfill policy promises is potentially being challenged by emerging social, political, and economic forces of the 21st century. Parties may become less meaningful to the electorate as they deal with the cross-pressures created by the forces of Europeanization, globalization, localism, and the increasing independence of central banks. These factors have the potential to make parties in government, at the national-level, marginally less able to fulfill the promises they make to voters. The review of literature presented here regarding these challenges indicates that although the risks to parties are very real, the effects of these emerging forces have yet to substantially diminish the primary roles and functioning of national parties in government. Those most at risk of being affected in the future are parties who rely strongly on economic appeals and promises.

Catholics and the 2016 Elections

Mark Gray concludes with an analysis of Catholic voting patterns in 2016. He notes the difference in voting patterns of the major subgroups—non-Hispanic white Catholics and Hispanic Catholics. Whereas some have suggested that shifting demographics change the composition of the Catholic vote, Gray demonstrates that in recent election cycles, especially in 2016, turnout rates among the subgroups are more important determinants. He takes us through the Catholic vote in both the primaries and in the general election and finds some perhaps surprising results regarding the key issues for Catholic voters—particularly homeland security, immigration, and the economy.