Mark Musumba

Climate Change and Vector-borne Diseases: An Economic Impact Analysis of Malaria in Africa

A semi-parametric econometric model is used to study the relationship between malaria cases and climatic factors in 25 African countries. Results show that a marginal change in temperature and precipitation levels would lead to a significant change in the number of malaria cases for most countries by the end of the century. Consistent with the existing biophysical malaria model results, the projected effects of climate change are mixed. Our model projects that some countries will see an increase in malaria cases but others will see a decrease. We estimate projected malaria inpatient and outpatient treatment costs as a proportion of annual 2000 health expenditures per 1,000 people. We found that even under minimal climate change scenario, some countries may see their inpatient treatment cost of malaria increase more than 20%.

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt's agricultural sector

Egyptian agriculture is vulnerable to potential climate change due to its dependence on irrigated crops, a climate that is too dry to support crops, and increasing water demands. This study analyzes the agricultural implications of climate change and population growth plus possible adaptations strategies. A partial equilibrium model that simulates crop and livestock production along with water flows and non-agricultural water use is used to analyze the impact of climate change. The study examines the implications of climate change effects on crop yields, livestock performance, non-agricultural water use, water supply, irrigation water use, sea level rise and a growing population. Results indicate that climate change damages the Egyptian agricultural sector and the damages increase over time (2030–2060). Prices for agricultural commodities increase and this has a negative effect on consumers but a positive effect on producers. Egypt may reduce these damages by adapting through lower demand growth, raised agricultural technological progress, sea rise protection and water conservation strategies.

Remittance receipts and allocation: a study of three African countries

Remittances may influence household expenditures, poverty rates, development and investments in the receiving country. Using World Bank survey data from Ethiopia, Uganda and Kenya, the influence of remitters’ and recipients’ characteristics on remittance amounts and allocation is examined. Effects of the remitter–receiver characteristics on remittance amounts are generally similar between countries. Such similarities imply a potential similar effect of policies in these countries. Age, household income, frequency of communication, family relations with remitter and country the recipient resided in influence remittance allocation. Recipients in Ethiopia and Uganda are more likely to allocate remittance towards savings than those in Kenya.