Mark Otiende

A micro-epidemiological analysis of febrile malaria in Coastal Kenya showing hotspots within hotspots

Malaria transmission is spatially heterogeneous. This reduces the efficacy of control strategies, but focusing control strategies on clusters or ‘hotspots’ of transmission may be highly effective. Among 1500 homesteads in coastal Kenya we calculated (a) the fraction of febrile children with positive malaria smears per homestead, and (b) the mean age of children with malaria per homestead. These two measures were inversely correlated, indicating that children in homesteads at higher transmission acquire immunity more rapidly. This inverse correlation increased gradually with increasing spatial scale of analysis, and hotspots of febrile malaria were identified at every scale. We found hotspots within hotspots, down to the level of an individual homestead. Febrile malaria hotspots were temporally unstable, but 4 km radius hotspots could be targeted for 1 month following 1 month periods of surveillance. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.02130.001

Burden of disease in adults admitted to hospital in a rural region of coastal Kenya: an analysis of data from linked clinical and demographic surveillance systems

Summary Background Estimates of the burden of disease in adults in sub-Saharan Africa largely rely on models of sparse data. We aimed to measure the burden of disease in adults living in a rural area of coastal Kenya with use of linked clinical and demographic surveillance data. Methods We used data from 18 712 adults admitted to Kilifi District Hospital (Kilifi, Kenya) between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2012, linked to 790 635 person-years of observation within the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, to establish the rates and major causes of admission to hospital. These data were also used to model disease-specific disability-adjusted life-years lost in the population. We used geographical mapping software to calculate admission rates stratified by distance from the hospital. Findings The main causes of admission to hospital in women living within 5 km of the hospital were infectious and parasitic diseases (303 per 100 000 person-years of observation), pregnancy-related disorders (239 per 100 000 person-years of observation), and circulatory illnesses (105 per 100 000 person-years of observation). Leading causes of hospital admission in men living within 5 km of the hospital were infectious and parasitic diseases (169 per 100 000 person-years of observation), injuries (135 per 100 000 person-years of observation), and digestive system disorders (112 per 100 000 person-years of observation). HIV-related diseases were the leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years lost (2050 per 100 000 person-years of observation), followed by non-communicable diseases (741 per 100 000 person-years of observation). For every 5 km increase in distance from the hospital, all-cause admission rates decreased by 11% (95% CI 7–14) in men and 20% (17–23) in women. The magnitude of this decline was highest for endocrine disorders in women (35%; 95% CI 22–46) and neoplasms in men (30%; 9–45). Interpretation Adults in rural Kenya face a combined burden of infectious diseases, pregnancy-related disorders, cardiovascular illnesses, and injuries. Disease burden estimates based on hospital data are affected by distance from the hospital, and the amount of underestimation of disease burden differs by both disease and sex. Funding The Wellcome Trust, GAVI Alliance.

Healthy or unhealthy migrants? : Identifying internal migration effects on mortality in Africa using health and demographic surveillance systems of the INDEPTH network

Migration has been hypothesised to be selective on health but this healthy migrant hypothesis has generally been tested at destinations, and for only one type of flow, from deprived to better-off areas. The circulatory nature of migration is rarely accounted for. This study examines the relationship between different types of internal migration and adult mortality in Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) populations in West, East, and Southern Africa, and asks how the processes of selection, adaptation and propagation explain the migration-mortality relationship experienced in these contexts. The paper uses longitudinal data representing approximately 900 000 adults living in nine sub-Saharan African HDSS sites of the INDEPTH Network. Event History Analysis techniques are employed to examine the relationship between all-cause mortality and migration status, over periods ranging from 3 to 14 years for a total of nearly 4.5 million person-years. The study confirms the importance of migration in explaining variation in mortality, and the diversity of the migration-mortality relationship over a range of rural and urban local areas in the three African regions. The results confirm that the pattern of migration-mortality relationship is not exclusively explained by selection but also by propagation and adaptation. Consequences for public health policy are drawn.

Cord blood IgG and the risk of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the first year of life

Graphical abstract

Psychometric evaluation of the Major Depression Inventory among young people living in Coastal Kenya.

Background: The lack of reliable, valid and adequately standardized measures of mental illnesses in sub-Saharan Africa is a key challenge for epidemiological studies on mental health. We evaluated the psychometric properties and feasibility of using a computerized version of the Major Depression Inventory (MDI) in an epidemiological study in rural Kenya. Methods: We surveyed 1496 participants aged 13-24 years in Kilifi County, on the Kenyan coast. The MDI was administered using a computer-assisted system, available in three languages. Internal consistency was evaluated using both Cronbach’s alpha and the Omega Coefficient. Confirmatory factor analysis was performed to evaluate the factorial structure of the MDI. Results: Internal consistency using both Cronbach’s Alpha (α= 0.83) and the Omega Coefficient (0.82; 95% confidence interval 0.81- 0.83) was above acceptable thresholds. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated a good fit of the data to a unidimensional model of MDI (χ 2 (33, N = 1409) = 178.52 p < 0.001, TLI = 0.947, CFI = 0.961, and Root Mean Square Error of Approximation, RMSEA = .056), and this was confirmed using Item Response Models (Loevinger’s H coefficient 0.38) that proved the MDI was a unidimensional scale. Equivalence evaluation indicated invariance across sex and age groups. In our population, 3.6% of the youth presented with scores suggesting major depression using the ICD-10 scoring algorithm, and 8.7% presented with total scores indicating presence of depression (mild, moderate or severe). Females and older youth were at the highest risk of depression. Conclusions: The MDI has good psychometric properties. Given its brevity, relative ease of usage and ability to identify at-risk youth, it may be useful for epidemiological studies of depression in Africa. Studies to establish clinical thresholds for depression are recommended. The high prevalence of depressive symptoms suggests that depression may be an important public health problem in this population group.

The impact of 10-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on the incidence of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia and clinically-defined pneumonia in Kenyan children.

Background Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) are highly protective against invasive pneumococcal disease caused by vaccine serotypes but the burden of pneumococcal disease in developing countries is dominated by pneumonia, most of which is non-bacteraemic. We examined the impact of PCV on pneumonia incidence. Methods We linked prospective hospital surveillance for clinically-defined WHO severe or very-severe pneumonia at Kilifi County Hospital from 2002-2015 to population surveillance at Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, comprising 45,000 children aged <5 years. Chest radiographs were read according to a WHO standard. A 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in Kenya in January 2011. In Kilifi, there was a catch-up campaign for children aged <5 years. We estimated the impact of PCV10 on pneumonia incidence through interrupted time series analysis accounting for seasonal and temporal trends. Findings The incidence of admission with clinically-defined pneumonia in 2002/3 was 21·7/1000/year in children aged 2-59 months. This declined progressively over 13 years. By the end of March 2011, 61·1% of children aged 2-11 months received ≥2 doses and 62·3% of children aged 12-59 months received ≥1 dose of PCV10. Adjusted incidence rate ratios for admissions with radiologically-confirmed pneumonia, clinically-defined pneumonia, and diarrhoea (control condition), associated with PCV10 introduction, were 0·52 (95% CI 0·32-0·86), 0·73 (95% CI 0·54-0·97) and 0·63, (95% CI 0·31-1·26), respectively. The annual incidence of clinically-defined pneumonia in December 2010 was 12·2/1000; this was reduced by 3·3/1000 with PCV10 introduction. Interpretation Over 13 years, hospitalisations for clinically-defined pneumonia declined progressively at Kilifi County Hospital but fell abruptly by 27% in association with PCV10 introduction. The incidence of radiologically-confirmed pneumonia fell by 48%. The burden of childhood pneumonia in Kilifi, Kenya, has been reduced substantially by PCV10. Funding Gavi, Wellcome Trust

Impact of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on invasive pneumococcal disease and nasopharyngeal carriage in Kenya

Background 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10), delivered at 6, 10 and 14 weeks of age, was introduced in Kenya in January 2011, accompanied by a catch-up campaign in Kilifi County for children <5 years. Coverage with ≥2 PCV10 doses in children 2-11 months was 80% in 2011 and 84% in 2016; coverage with ≥1 dose in children 12-59 months was 66% and 87%, respectively. Methods Clinical and microbiological surveillance for invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among admissions of all ages at Kilifi County Hospital was linked to the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System from 1999-2016. We calculated the incidence rate ratio (IRR) comparing the pre-vaccine and post-vaccine eras, adjusted for confounding, and reported percent reduction in IPD as 1-IRR. Annual cross-sectional surveys of nasopharyngeal carriage were conducted from 2009-2016. Findings Surveillance identified 667 IPD cases in 3,211,403 person-years of observation. IPD incidence in children <5 years fell sharply in 2011 following PCV10 introduction, and remained low (PCV10-type IPD: 60·8 vs 3·2/100,000 [92% reduction; 95%CI: 78, 97]; overall IPD: 81·6 vs 15·3/100,000 [68% reduction; 95%CI: 40, 83]; 1999-2010 vs 2012-2016). PCV10-type IPD also declined significantly in unvaccinated age groups (<2 months, 5-14 years, ≥15 years), with estimated reductions of 100%, 74%, and 81%, respectively. There was no significant change in the incidence of non-PCV10 type IPD. In children aged <5 years, PCV10-type carriage declined by 74% and non-PCV10-type carriage increased by 71%. Interpretation Introduction of PCV10 in Kenya resulted in a substantial reduction in PCV10-type IPD in children and adults without significant replacement disease. These findings suggest that routine infant PCV10 immunization programmes with catch-up campaigns will provide substantial direct and indirect protection in low-income settings in tropical Africa.

Assessing The Efficiency Of Catch-Up Campaigns For Introduction Of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine; A Modelling Study Based On Data From Kilifi, Kenya

Background The World Health Organisation recommends the use of catch-up campaigns as part of the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) to accelerate herd protection and hence PCV impact. The value of a catch-up campaign is a trade-off between the costs of vaccinating additional age groups and the benefit of additional direct and indirect protection. There is a paucity of observational data, particularly from low-middle income countries to quantify the optimal breadth of such catch-up campaigns. Methods In Kilifi, Kenya PCV10 was introduced in 2011 using the 3-dose EPI infant schedule and a catch-up campaign in children <5 years old. We fitted a transmission dynamic model to detailed local data including nasopharyngeal carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) to infer the marginal impact of the PCV catch-up campaign over hypothetical routine cohort vaccination in that setting, and to estimate the likely impact of alternative campaigns and their dose-efficiency. Results We estimated that, within 10 years of introduction, the catch-up campaign among <5y olds prevents an additional 65 (48 to 84) IPD cases, compared to PCV cohort introduction alone. Vaccination without any catch-up campaign prevented 155 (121 to 193) IPD cases and used 1321 (1058 to 1698) PCV doses per IPD case prevented. In the years after implementation, the PCV programme gradually accrues herd protection and hence its dose-efficiency increases: 10 years after the start of cohort vaccination alone the programme used 910 (732 to 1184) doses per IPD case averted. We estimated that a two-dose catch-up among <1y olds uses an additional 910 (732 to 1184) doses per additional IPD case averted. Furthermore, by extending a single dose catch-up campaign to children 1 to <2y old and subsequently to 2 to <5y olds the campaign uses an additional 412 (296 to 606) and 543 (403 to 763) doses per additional IPD case averted. These results were not sensitive to vaccine coverage, serotype competition, the duration of vaccine protection or the relative protection of infants. Conclusions We find that catch-up campaigns are a highly dose-efficient way to accelerate population protection against pneumococcal disease.