Mark P. Little

Radiation exposure from CT scans in childhood and subsequent risk of leukaemia and brain tumours: a retrospective cohort study

Summary Background Although CT scans are very useful clinically, potential cancer risks exist from associated ionising radiation, in particular for children who are more radiosensitive than adults. We aimed to assess the excess risk of leukaemia and brain tumours after CT scans in a cohort of children and young adults. Methods In our retrospective cohort study, we included patients without previous cancer diagnoses who were first examined with CT in National Health Service (NHS) centres in England, Wales, or Scotland (Great Britain) between 1985 and 2002, when they were younger than 22 years of age. We obtained data for cancer incidence, mortality, and loss to follow-up from the NHS Central Registry from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2008. We estimated absorbed brain and red bone marrow doses per CT scan in mGy and assessed excess incidence of leukaemia and brain tumours cancer with Poisson relative risk models. To avoid inclusion of CT scans related to cancer diagnosis, follow-up for leukaemia began 2 years after the first CT and for brain tumours 5 years after the first CT. Findings During follow-up, 74 of 178 604 patients were diagnosed with leukaemia and 135 of 176 587 patients were diagnosed with brain tumours. We noted a positive association between radiation dose from CT scans and leukaemia (excess relative risk [ERR] per mGy 0·036, 95% CI 0·005–0·120; p=0·0097) and brain tumours (0·023, 0·010–0·049; p<0·0001). Compared with patients who received a dose of less than 5 mGy, the relative risk of leukaemia for patients who received a cumulative dose of at least 30 mGy (mean dose 51·13 mGy) was 3·18 (95% CI 1·46–6·94) and the relative risk of brain cancer for patients who received a cumulative dose of 50–74 mGy (mean dose 60·42 mGy) was 2·82 (1·33–6·03). Interpretation Use of CT scans in children to deliver cumulative doses of about 50 mGy might almost triple the risk of leukaemia and doses of about 60 mGy might triple the risk of brain cancer. Because these cancers are relatively rare, the cumulative absolute risks are small: in the 10 years after the first scan for patients younger than 10 years, one excess case of leukaemia and one excess case of brain tumour per 10 000 head CT scans is estimated to occur. Nevertheless, although clinical benefits should outweigh the small absolute risks, radiation doses from CT scans ought to be kept as low as possible and alternative procedures, which do not involve ionising radiation, should be considered if appropriate. Funding US National Cancer Institute and UK Department of Health.

Risk of cardiovascular disease and all cause mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes prescribed oral antidiabetes drugs: retrospective cohort study using UK general practice research database

Objective To investigate the risk of incident myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, and all cause mortality associated with prescription of oral antidiabetes drugs. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting UK general practice research database, 1990-2005. Participants 91 521 people with diabetes. Main outcome measures Incident myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, and all cause mortality. Person time intervals for drug treatment were categorised by drug class, excluding non-drug intervals and intervals for insulin. Results 3588 incident cases of myocardial infarction, 6900 of congestive heart failure, and 18 548 deaths occurred. Compared with metformin, monotherapy with first or second generation sulphonylureas was associated with a significant 24% to 61% excess risk for all cause mortality (P<0.001) and second generation sulphonylureas with an 18% to 30% excess risk for congestive heart failure (P=0.01 and P<0.001). The thiazolidinediones were not associated with risk of myocardial infarction; pioglitazone was associated with a significant 31% to 39% lower risk of all cause mortality (P=0.02 to P<0.001) compared with metformin. Among the thiazolidinediones, rosiglitazone was associated with a 34% to 41% higher risk of all cause mortality (P=0.14 to P=0.01) compared with pioglitazone. A large number of potential confounders were accounted for in the study; however, the possibility of residual confounding or confounding by indication (differences in prognostic factors between drug groups) cannot be excluded. Conclusions Our findings suggest a relatively unfavourable risk profile of sulphonylureas compared with metformin for all outcomes examined. Pioglitazone was associated with reduced all cause mortality compared with metformin. Pioglitazone also had a favourable risk profile compared with rosiglitazone; although this requires replication in other studies, it may have implications for prescribing within this class of drugs.

Risks associated with low doses and low dose rates of ionizing radiation: why linearity may be (almost) the best we can do.

Deterministic and stochastic effects associated with high-dose ionizing radiation (x-ray) exposure have been known for almost as long as ionizing radiation itself (1–3). At lower doses, radiation risks are primarily stochastic effects, in particular, somatic effects (cancer) rather than the deterministic effects characteristic of higher-dose exposure (4–6). In contrast to deterministic effects, for stochastic effects, scientific committees generally assume that at sufficiently low doses there is a positive linear component to the dose response—that is, that there is no threshold (4–6). This does not preclude there being higher-order (eg, quadratic) powers of dose in the dose response that may be of importance at higher doses. It is on this basis that models linear (or linear-quadratic) in dose are often used to extrapolate the experience of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors (who were typically exposed at a high dose rate to moderate doses [average, 0.1 Sv]) to estimate risks from low doses and low dose rates (4–6). Most population-based cancer risk estimates are based primarily on the Japanese atomic bomb survivor Life Span Study (LSS) cohort data (4–6). However, evidence of excess risks comes from a large number of other studies as well. In the parallel editorial (7), evidence is presented for possible real (or at least “practical”) thresholds or “hormetic” (beneficial) effects of low doses of ionizing radiation. As we summarize here, and in contrast to the arguments of Tubiana et al (7), we judge that there is little epidemiologic or biologic evidence for these for cancer. The arguments are of three forms: (a) assessment of the degree of curvature in the cancer dose response within the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and other exposed groups (in particular, departure from linear or linear-quadratic curvature), (b) consistency of risks between the Japanese and other moderate- and low-dose cohorts, and (c) assessment of biologic data on mechanisms. Most of the information on radiation-induced cancer risk comes from (a) the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, (b) medically exposed populations, (c) occupationally exposed groups, and (d) environmentally exposed groups (6). In the higher-dose radiation therapy studies, where doses received are very much higher than in the LSS, sometimes in the range at which cell sterilization occurs, excess cancer risks per unit dose tend to be less than in comparable subsets of the LSS (8,9). However, as we show, risks in moderate- and low-dose medically and occupationally exposed groups are generally consistent with those in the LSS.

The Increase in Thyroid Cancer Incidence During the Last Four Decades Is Accompanied by a High Frequency of BRAF Mutations and a Sharp Increase in RAS Mutations

CONTEXT Thyroid cancer incidence rates in the United States and globally have increased steadily over the last 40 years, primarily due to a tripling of the incidence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to analyze trends in demographic, clinical, pathologic, and molecular characteristics of PTC from 1974 to 2009. DESIGN AND SETTING We identified and histologically reviewed 469 consecutive cases of PTC from one US institution from 4 preselected periods (1974 to 1985, 1990 to 1992, 2000, and 2009) and assessed BRAF and RAS point mutations and RET/PTC rearrangements among 341 tumors ≥0.3 cm in size. Changes over time were analyzed using polytomous and binary logistic regression; all analyses were adjusted for age and sex. RESULTS During this period, the median age of patients at diagnosis increased from 37 to 53 years (P < .001) and the percentage of microcarcinomas (≤1.0 cm) increased from 33% to 51% (P < .001), whereas extrathyroidal extension and advanced tumor stage decreased from 40% to 21% (P = .005) and from 43% to 28% (P = .036), respectively. Changes in tumor histopathology showed a decrease in classic PTC and an increase in the follicular variant (P < .001). The proportion of tumors with a BRAF mutation was stable (∼46%) but increased from 50% to 77% (P = .008) within classic papillary PTCs. The proportion of tumors with RAS mutations increased from 3% to 25% and within follicular pattern tumors from 18% to 44% (P < .001). The proportion of RET/PTC rearrangements decreased from 11% to 2% (P = .038). CONCLUSIONS Similar to US national trends, we found an increasing age at diagnosis and greater detection of smaller-sized intrathyroidal PTCs. However, the overall proportion of BRAF mutations remained stable. Sharply rising percentages of the follicular variant histology and RAS mutations after 2000 suggest new and more recent etiologic factors. The increased incidence is not likely to be due to environmental or therapeutic radiation because the percentage of RET/PTC rearrangements decreased.

Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Circulatory Disease from Exposure to Low-Level Ionizing Radiation and Estimates of Potential Population Mortality Risks

Background: Although high doses of ionizing radiation have long been linked to circulatory disease, evidence for an association at lower exposures remains controversial. However, recent analyses suggest excess relative risks at occupational exposure levels. Objectives: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize information on circulatory disease risks associated with moderate- and low-level whole-body ionizing radiation exposures. Methods: We conducted PubMed/ISI Thomson searches of peer-reviewed papers published since 1990 using the terms “radiation” AND “heart” AND “disease,” OR “radiation” AND “stroke,” OR “radiation” AND “circulatory” AND “disease.” Radiation exposures had to be whole-body, with a cumulative mean dose of < 0.5 Sv, or at a low dose rate (< 10 mSv/day). We estimated population risks of circulatory disease from low-level radiation exposure using excess relative risk estimates from this meta-analysis and current mortality rates for nine major developed countries. Results: Estimated excess population risks for all circulatory diseases combined ranged from 2.5%/Sv [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8, 4.2] for France to 8.5%/Sv (95% CI: 4.0, 13.0) for Russia. Conclusions: Our review supports an association between circulatory disease mortality and low and moderate doses of ionizing radiation. Our analysis was limited by heterogeneity among studies (particularly for noncardiac end points), the possibility of uncontrolled confounding in some occupational groups by lifestyle factors, and higher dose groups (> 0.5 Sv) generally driving the observed trends. If confirmed, our findings suggest that overall radiation-related mortality is about twice that currently estimated based on estimates for cancer end points alone (which range from 4.2% to 5.6%/Sv for these populations).

Risk coefficients for childhood cancer after intrauterine irradiation: a review

Purpose: To review the estimates of the risk of childhood cancer per unit dose of radiation received in utero derived from the largest case‐control study of obstetric X‐ray examinations and to compare them with the childhood cancer risk coefficients obtained from the cohorts of Japanese atomic bomb survivors irradiated either in utero or as young children. Materials and methods: Data from the Oxford Survey of Childhood Cancers (OSCC) case‐control study of foetal exposure to diagnostic X‐rays and from the cohort studies of the Japanese survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were used, together with associated dose estimates. Excess relative risk and excess absolute risk coefficients were compared, fully taking into consideration the various sources of uncertainty. Results: The excess relative risk coefficient for childhood (<15 years of age) cancer obtained from the OSCC was around 50 Gy−1, leading to an excess absolute risk coefficient for incident cases of about 8% Gy−1. However, the statistical, dosimetry, modelling and other uncertainties associated with these risk estimates are appreciable, and there is reason to believe that these coefficients could be systematic overestimates. When these uncertainties and those associated with the equivalent risk coefficients derived from the Japanese cohort exposed in utero are taken into account, the risk estimates for childhood cancer obtained from these two sources are compatible. These coefficients are consistent with the high relative risk of childhood leukaemia among the Japanese survivors exposed as children. The absence of cases of childhood solid tumours among the Japanese children irradiated after birth in contrast to the significant excesses found in both intrauterine exposure studies might be explained by the cells from which these cancers originate being predominantly sensitive only to exposure in utero. Conclusions: The consistency of the childhood cancer risk coefficients derived from the Oxford Survey and from the Japanese cohort irradiated in utero supports a causal explanation of the association between childhood cancer and an antenatal X‐ray examination found in case‐control studies. This implies that doses to the foetus in utero of the order of 10 mSv discernibly increase the risk of childhood cancer. However, uncertainties in risk estimates are such that it is difficult to conclude reliably from these epidemiological data what the level of risk at these low doses might be, beyond the inference that the risk is not zero or has been grossly underestimated.

A Systematic Review of Epidemiological Associations between Low and Moderate Doses of Ionizing Radiation and Late Cardiovascular Effects, and Their Possible Mechanisms

Abstract Little, M. P., Tawn, E. J., Tzoulaki, I., Wakeford, R., Hildebrandt, G., Paris, F., Tapio, S. and Elliott, P. A Systematic Review of Epidemiological Associations Between Low and Moderate Doses of Ionizing Radiation and Late Cardiovascular Effects, and Their Possible Mechanisms. Radiat. Res. 169, 99–109 (2008). The link between high doses of ionizing radiation and damage to the heart and coronary arteries is established. In this paper, we systematically review the epidemiological evidence for associations between low and moderate doses (<5 Gy) of ionizing radiation and late-occurring cardiovascular disease. Risks per unit dose in epidemiological studies vary over at least two orders of magnitude, possibly a result of confounding factors. An examination of possible biological mechanisms indicates that the most likely causative effect of radiation exposure is damage to endothelial cells and subsequent induction of an inflammatory response, although it seems unlikely that this would extend to low-dose and low-dose-rate exposure. However, a role for somatic mutation has been proposed that would indicate a stochastic effect. In the absence of a convincing mechanistic explanation of epidemiological evidence that is less than persuasive at present, a cause-and-effect interpretation of the reported statistical associations cannot be reliably inferred, although neither can it be reliably excluded. Further epidemiological and biological evidence will allow a firmer conclusion to be drawn.

A record-based case-control study of natural background radiation and the incidence of childhood leukaemia and other cancers in Great Britain during 1980-2006

We conducted a large record-based case–control study testing associations between childhood cancer and natural background radiation. Cases (27 447) born and diagnosed in Great Britain during 1980–2006 and matched cancer-free controls (36 793) were from the National Registry of Childhood Tumours. Radiation exposures were estimated for mother’s residence at the child’s birth from national databases, using the County District mean for gamma rays, and a predictive map based on domestic measurements grouped by geological boundaries for radon. There was 12% excess relative risk (ERR) (95% CI 3, 22; two-sided P=0.01) of childhood leukaemia per millisievert of cumulative red bone marrow dose from gamma radiation; the analogous association for radon was not significant, ERR 3% (95% CI −4, 11; P=0.35). Associations for other childhood cancers were not significant for either exposure. Excess risk was insensitive to adjustment for measures of socio-economic status. The statistically significant leukaemia risk reported in this reasonably powered study (power ∼50%) is consistent with high-dose rate predictions. Substantial bias is unlikely, and we cannot identify mechanisms by which confounding might plausibly account for the association, which we regard as likely to be causal. The study supports the extrapolation of high-dose rate risk models to protracted exposures at natural background exposure levels.

Early growth and adult respiratory function in men and women followed from the fetal period to adulthood.

Background: While some studies suggest that poor fetal growth rate, as indicated by lower birth weight, is associated with poor respiratory function in childhood, findings among adults remain inconsistent. A study was undertaken to determine the association between early growth and adult respiratory function. Methods: A longitudinal birth cohort study was performed of 5390 men and women born full term and prospectively followed from the fetal period to adulthood. Weight at birth and infancy were recorded, and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were assessed by standard spirometry at age 31 years. Results: Adult FEV1 and FVC increased linearly with higher birth weight in both men and women with no apparent threshold. After adjustment for sex, adult height and other potential confounders operating through the life course, every 500 g higher birth weight was associated with a higher FEV1 of 53.1 ml (95% CI 38.4 to 67.7) and higher FVC of 52.5 ml (95% CI 35.5 to 69.4). These positive associations persisted across categories of smoking, physical activity and body mass index, with the lowest respiratory function noted among those with lower birth weight who were smokers, led a sedentary lifestyle or were overweight. Weight gain in infancy was also positively associated with adult lung function. Conclusion: Birth weight is continuously and independently associated with adult respiratory function. It is plausible that poor growth in early life may restrict normal lung growth and development, which could have long-term consequences on lung function later in life.

Risks of brain tumour following treatment for cancer in childhood: modification by genetic factors, radiotherapy and chemotherapy.

A cohort of 4,400 persons treated for various cancers of childhood in France and the UK was followed up over an extended period to assess risks of subsequent brain tumour in relation to the radiotherapy and chemotherapy that the children received for their first cancer. Elevated risks of subsequent brain tumours were associated with first central nervous system (CNS) tumour (two‐sided p =0.0002) and neurofibromatosis (two‐sided p =0.001). There was also elevated brain tumour risk (two‐sided p =0.003) associated with ionising radiation exposure, the risk being concentrated among benign and unspecified brain tumours. The radiation‐related risk of benign and unspecified brain tumours was significantly higher than that of malignant brain tumours (two‐sided p≤ 0.05); there was no significant change of malignant brain tumour risk with ionising radiation dose (two‐sided p > 0.2). In general, there were no strong associations between alkylating agent dose and brain tumour risk. The only significant association between brain tumour risk and alkylating agent dose was in relation to compounds used (bleomycin, chloraminophen) that are thought not to deliver substantial doses to the brain; the statistical significance of the trend with dose depended on a single case, and thus must be considered a weak result. Int. J. Cancer 78:269–275, 1998. Published 1998 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.