Mark Peffley

How are Foreign Policy Attitudes Structured? A Hierarchical Model

It has long been assumed that foreign-policy attitudes of the mass public are random, disorganized, and unconstrained if they exist at all. Further, foreign-policy thinking has not been found to be structured along standard ideological (liberal-conservative) lines, partisan lines, or class lines. We attempt to move the discussion from a question of whether foreign-policy attitudes are structured to a question of how they are structured. We propose and estimate (using a LISREL model) a hierarchically organized foreign-policy belief structure in which specific policy preferences are derived from postures ( broad, abstract beliefs regarding appropriate general governmental strategies). These postures, in turn, are assumed to be constrained by a set of core values about the international community .

Racial Stereotypes and Whites' Political Views of Blacks in the Context of Welfare and Crime STOR

Theory: Social psychological theories of social stereotyping are used to generate a series of predictions about how and when whitesstereotypes of African-Americans are likely to bias their evaluations of blacks in the areas of welfare and crime. Hypotheses: The degree to which whites endorse negative stereotypes of blacks not only tends to bias their judgments of black (versus white) welfare recipients and criminal suspects, but also affects the way they respond to counter-stereotypical information about the target. Methods: Regression analysis and analysis of variance of data from a series of survey experiments with 1,841 whites in which the race and other attributes of welfare mothers, welfare recipients, and drug suspects were manipulated. Results: Whites holding negative stereotypes are substantially more likely to judge blacks more harshly than similarly described whites in the areas of welfare and crime policy. We also find that even whites with strongly negative perceptions of blacks respond quite favorably to them when confronted with individuating information that clearly contradicts their stereotype. By way of contrast, respondents who reject negative stereotypes of African-Americans display a remarkable consistency in their responses across both the race and the individuating information of the target.

Democratization and Political Tolerance in Seventeen Countries: A Multi-level Model of Democratic Learning

Research on mass support for democracies shows that popular support for democratic norms is at an historic high. At the same time, research on political tolerance draws considerably bleaker conclusions about the democratic capacity of mass publics. We attempt to synthesize the essential lessons of these two literatures into a general model of democratic learning which argues that exposure to the rough-and-tumble of democratic politics should enhance political tolerance. We provide a test of the model using multilevel data from a diverse set of 17 countries. At the macro-level, we find, consistent with our theory, that: (1) political tolerance is greater in stable democracies that have endured over time (the longer the better), independent of a nation’s socioeconomic development; and (2) that federal systems increase levels of tolerance, as well. At the micro-level, we find that democratic activism, or using civil liberties, enhances political tolerance, independent of a host of other individual-level predictors. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings for studies of democratization and political tolerance.

The Racial Components of "Race-Neutral" Crime Policy Attitudes

Past studies have found evidence of a connection between race and crime in the minds of many white Americans, but several gaps remain in our knowledge of this association. Here, a multimethod approach was used to examine more closely the racial component of whites’ support for ostensibly race-neutral crime policies. Conventional correlational analysis showed that negative stereotypes of African Americans—specifically, the belief that blacks are violent and lazy—are an important source of support for punitive policies such as the death penalty and longer prison terms. A survey experiment further showed that negative evaluations of black prisoners are much more strongly tied to support for punitive policies than are negative evaluations of white prisoners. These findings suggest that when many whites think of punitive crime policies to deal with violent offenders, they are thinking of black offenders.

Attributing Presidential Responsibility for National Economic Problems

Several recent studies of economic voting have challenged a central assumption of the reward-punishment theory of retrospective voting, that voters hold the incumbent party responsible for all manner of economic fluctuations. Our research expands on prior work in several ways by specifying and testing a model of the way people attribute responsibility to presidents for national economic problems. We find that during the 1982 recession, President Reagan was spared the wrath of the reward-punishment theory among individuals who felt that economic problems were more the fault of the previous administration, that presidents have relatively little control over the causes of inflation and unemployment, and that past presidents were unable to control these same problems. Implications for retrospective voting theories and the outcome of the 1982 midterm elections are discussed.

The Means and Ends of Foreign Policy as Determinants of Presidential Support

Previous research has not found foreign policy attitudes to be an important determinant of political evaluations (such as voting or presidential evaluation). Such findings, though, may have underestimated the importance of foreign policy because they are based on aggregate data and because they measure such attitudes at a level which is much too specific. We argue that citizens base presidential evaluations on foreign policy in two ways: first, by focusing on international outcomes as retrospective judges; and second, by evaluating the general foreign policy postures of the administration. Based on a sample of Twin Cities adults, it is found that foreign policy has a substantial impact on evaluations of President Reagan.

Models of attitude constraint in foreign affairs

A relatively recent innovation in research on attitude constraint is the specification of hierarchical models of mass belief systems, where general orientations are assumed to determine or constrain more specific policy attitudes. But while this research has been able to demonstrate a strong correlation between general and specific idea elements, the causal direction of the relationship has been assumed rather than tested. Using panel data collected during a period of constancy in the international environment, we attempt to untangle the causal ordering of general orientations and specific policy attitudes in the realm of international politics. In accord with hierarchical models, we find, first, that general orientations (e.g., militarism and containment postures) are more stable than many specific policy preferences (e.g., attitudes toward defense spending and U.S. involvement in Central America) and, second, much of the over-time consistency in policy attitudes is generated by these more general orientations. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of this work for studies of attitude constraint, one of which is thegeneral applicability of the procedure for investigating top-down versus bottom-up models of constraint in domains outside the international realm.

Perception and prejudice : race and politics in the United States

Based on one of the most extensive scientific surveys of race ever conducted, this book investigates the relationship between racial perceptions and policy choices in America. The contributors - leading scholars in the fields of public opinion, race relations, and political behavior - clarify and explore images of African-Americans that white Americans hold and the complex ways that racial stereotypes shape modern political debates about such issues as affirmative action, housing, welfare, and crime.

Priming Theory and Ras Models: Toward an Integrated Perspective of Media Influence

Contemporary political science research into the effects of the mass media has focused largely on either priming theory or Receive, Accept, and Sample (RAS) models but rarely on both simultaneously. The separation of the two approaches is unfortunate because the predictions generated by the two theoretical perspectives are not mutually exclusive, and research may benefit greatly from a more integrated perspective. In the present study, we demonstrate how each perspective contributes to an understanding of changes in presidential approval during the 1992 presidential elections. We then present evidence demonstrating that both media priming and attitude change occur simultaneously. As such, research focusing solely on priming theory or research focusing solely on attitude change necessarily underestimates the total influence of the mass media on individual-level attitudes.

The Impact of Persistent Terrorism on Political Tolerance: Israel, 1980 to 2011

How do persistent terrorist attacks influence political tolerance, a willingness to extend basic liberties to ones enemies? Studies in the U.S. and elsewhere have produced a number of valuable insights into how citizens respond to singular, massive attacks like 9/11. But they are less useful for evaluating how chronic and persistent terrorist attacks erode support for democratic values over the long haul. Our study focuses on political tolerance levels in Israel across a turbulent 30-year period, from 1980 to 2011, which allows us to distinguish the short-term impact of hundreds of terrorist attacks from the long-term influence of democratic longevity on political tolerance. We find that the corrosive influence of terrorism on political tolerance is much more powerful among Israelis who identify with the Right, who have also become much more sensitive to terrorism over time. We discuss the implications of our findings for other democracies under threat from terrorism.