Mark R. Stone

On Target?: The International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets

This paper examines the international experience with full-fledged inflation targeting monetary regimes. Stylized facts are brought together from a review of the institutional elements of inflation targeting frameworks, a comparison of actual and targeted inflation outcomes, and case studies of large inflation target misses. Inflation targets are missed about 40 percent of the time and often by substantial amounts and for prolonged periods, yet no country has dropped inflation targeting. The resilience of the inflation targeting regime is attributable to the flexibility of the framework, its high standards of transparency and accountability, and the lack of realistic alternatives.

Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting

This paper provides some practical advice on establishing initial conditions in support of an inflation-targeting monetary framework. These conditions are divided into four areas: a mandate in support of an inflation objective and accountability for achieving this objective; macroeconomic stability; a sufficiently well-developed and stable financial system; and effective policy implementation tools. The measures taken by countries to meet these conditions are also reviewed.

Inflation Targeting Lite

Inflation targeting lite (ITL) countries float their exchange rate and announce an inflation target, but are not able to maintain the inflation target as the foremost policy objective. This paper identifies 19 emerging market countries as practitioners of ITL. They seem to focus mainly on bringing inflation into the single digits and maintaining financial stability. ITL can be viewed as a transitional regime aimed at buying time for the implementation of the structural reforms needed for a single credible nominal anchor. The important policy challenges for an ITL central bank include whether or not to precommit to a single anchor.

A New Taxonomy of Monetary Regimes

This paper proposes a new taxonomy of monetary regimes defined by the choice and clarity of the nominal anchor. The regimes are as follows: (i) monetary nonautonomy, (ii) weak anchor, (iii) money anchor, (iv) exchange rate peg, (v) full-fledged inflation targeting, (vi) implicit price stability anchor, and (vii) inflation targeting lite. This taxonomy captures the commitment-discretion tradeoffs that lie at the heart of choosing a monetary regime. During the last 15 years the world has moved toward monetary regimes with less discretion. Empirical analysis suggests that country regime choices reflect the level of financial and economic development and recent inflation history.

The East Asian Crisis: Macroeconomic Developments and Policy Lessons

This paper reviews macroeconomic developments during the first year of the crisis in east Asia and draws some preliminary policy lessons. The crisis is rooted in the interaction of large capital inflows and weak private and public sector governance. At the same time, macroeconomic adjustment in these countries has resulted in some surprising outcomes, including severe economic contractions, low inflation, and rapid external adjustment. The lessons for crisis resolution include the importance of tight monetary policy early on for exchange rate stabilization, flexible fiscal policy, and comprehensive structural reform. Crises are avoided by prudent macroeconomic policies, diligent bank supervision, transparent data dissemination, strong governance, and forward-looking policymaking, even in good times.

The Corporate Sector Dynamics of Systemic Financial Crises

This paper puts together a set of stylized facts of the corporate sector dynamics of systemic financial crises based on recent crisis episodes with a view to identifying the key issues and their policy implications. The evidence suggests that corporate crisis dynamics arc triggered by a cutoff of capital inflows and are amplified into an historically severe recession by exchange rate depreciation, high interest rates, and current account adjustment. The adverse consequences of these dynamics can be forestalled and assuaged by policies that improve monitoring of the corporate sector and boost nonbank sources of corporate financing.

Unconventional Central Bank Measures for Emerging Economies

Unconventional central bank measures are playing a key policy role for many advanced economies in the 2007-09 global crisis. Are they playing a similar role for emerging economies? Emerging economies have widely used unconventional foreign exchange and domestic short-term liquidity easing measures. Their use of credit easing and quantitative easing measures has been much more limited. Thus, unconventional measures are much less important for emerging economies compared to advanced economies in achieving broader macroeconomic objectives. The difference can be attributed to the relatively limited financial stress in emerging economies, their external vulnerabilities and their limited scope for quasifiscal activities.

Are Sovereign Debt Secondary Market Returns Sensitive to Macroeconomic Fundamentals?: - Evidence from the Contemporary and Interwar Markets -

The insensitivity of sovereign loan secondary market returns to macroeconomic fundamentals has been attributed to market illiquidity and the absence of publicly reported transactional prices. During the 1920s and 1930s sovereign bonds were traded in an active market and weekly transactional prices were publicly available. This paper shows that price changes from both eras are insensitive to unexpected changes in key external and country-specific macroeconomic aggregates, but that returns are moved by individual agent announcements that presage changes in future lending. The results, which contrast with studies of U.S. equities, indicate that the sovereignty of the issuer matters more than the type of debt contract.

Systemic Financial Crises, Balance Sheets, and Model Uncertainity

This paper empirically examines the probability and intensity of financial crises during the 1990s with a view to informing crisis prevention and mitigation policies. The econometric analysis uses a decision-theoretic approach, rather than the more standard general-to-specific approach, to address the high degree of model uncertainty. The results affirm the importance of balance sheets in the probability and intensity of financial crises, especially corporate balance sheet stresses and foreign exchange liquidity shortfalls. Model uncertainty is a bigger problem for estimating crisis intensity compared to crisis probability.

Corporate Leverage, Bankruptcy, and Output Adjustment in Post-Crisis East Asia

Different levels of corporate leverage are used in this paper to help explain the wide range of post-crisis output adjustment across East Asia. In the model developed here, highly leveraged firms facing a cutoff of capital inflows are threatened by bankruptcy. These firms respond by eliminating investment and selling their capital goods-at a discount-to try to stay afloat. Lower investment and wasteful capital sales shrink the aggregate capital stock, trigger deflationary pressures, and contract overall output. The available data are broadly consistent with the assumptions and predictions of the model.