Mark S. Minton

Geographic variation in marine invasions among large estuaries: effects of ships and time

Coastal regions exhibit strong geographic patterns of nonnative species richness. Most invasions in marine ecosystems are known from bays and estuaries, where ship-mediated transfers (on hulls or in ballasted materials) have been a dominant vector of species introductions. Conspicuous spatial differences in nonnative species richness exist among bays, but the quantitative relationship between invasion magnitude and shipping activity across sites is largely unexplored. Using data on marine invasions (for invertebrates and algae) and commercial shipping across 16 large bays in the United States, we estimated (1) geographic variation in nonnative species richness attributed to ships, controlling for effects of salinity and other vectors, (2) changes through time in geographic variation of these ship-mediated invasions, and (3) effects of commercial ship traffic and ballast water discharge magnitude on nonnative species richness. For all nonnative species together (regardless of vector, salinity, or time period), species richness differed among U.S. coasts, being significantly greater for Pacific Coast bays than Atlantic or Gulf Coast bays. This difference also existed when considering only species attributed to shipping (or ballast water), controlling for time and salinity. Variation in nonnative species richness among Pacific Coast bays was strongly affected by these same criteria. San Francisco Bay, California, had over 200 documented nonnative species, more than twice that reported for other bays, but many species were associated with other (non-shipping) vectors or the extensive low-salinity habitats (unavailable in some bays). When considering only ship- or ballast-mediated introductions in high-salinity waters, the rate of newly detected invasions in San Francisco Bay has converged increasingly through time on that for other Pacific Coast bays, appearing no different since 1982. Considering all 16 bays together, there was no relationship between either (1) number of ship arrivals (from foreign ports) and number of introductions attributed to ships since 1982 or (2) volume of foreign ballast water discharge and number of species attributed to ballast water since 1982. These shipping measures are likely poor proxies for propagule supply, although they are sometimes used as such, highlighting a fundamental gap in data needed to evaluate invasion dynamics and management strategies.

Geographic Limitations and Regional Differences in Ships' Ballast Water Management to Reduce Marine Invasions in the Contiguous United States

Marine species are in constant motion in the ballast water and on the hulls of the ships that ply the worlds oceans; ships serve as a major vector for biological invasions. Despite federal and state regulations that require ballast water exchange (BWE), particular trade routes impose geographic and temporal constraints on compliance, limiting whether a ship can conduct BWE at the required distance (≥200 nautical miles) from shore to minimize transfers of coastal organisms. Ships moving across the Americas are largely unable to conduct open-ocean BWE, but instead often conduct exchanges inside coastal waters. Overall, strong differences exist in volumes, geographic sources, and the use of BWE for ballast water discharge among the three major coasts of the contiguous United States. Such patterns suggest important geographic differences in invasion opportunities and also argue for more effective alternative ballast water treatments that can be applied more evenly.

Per capita invasion probabilities: an empirical model to predict rates of invasion via ballast water

Ballast water discharges are a major source of species introductions into marine and estuarine ecosystems. To mitigate the introduction of new invaders into these ecosystems, many agencies are proposing standards that establish upper concentration limits for organisms in ballast discharge. Ideally, ballast discharge standards will be biologically defensible and adequately protective of the marine environment. We propose a new technique, the per capita invasion probability (PCIP), for managers to quantitatively evaluate the relative risk of different concentration-based ballast water discharge standards. PCIP represents the likelihood that a single discharged organism will become established as a new nonindigenous species. This value is calculated by dividing the total number of ballast water invaders per year by the total number of organisms discharged from ballast. Analysis was done at the coast-wide scale for the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts, as well as the Great Lakes, to reduce uncertainty due to secondary invasions between estuaries on a single coast. The PCIP metric is then used to predict the rate of new ballast-associated invasions given various regulatory scenarios. Depending upon the assumptions used in the risk analysis, this approach predicts that approximately one new species will invade every 10-100 years with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) discharge standard of < 10 organisms with body size > 50 microm per m3 of ballast. This approach resolves many of the limitations associated with other methods of establishing ecologically sound discharge standards, and it allows policy makers to use risk-based methodologies to establish biologically defensible discharge standards.

Evaluating the combined effects of ballast water management and trade dynamics on transfers of marine organisms by ships

Global trade by merchant ships is a leading mechanism for the unintentional transfer of marine organisms, including non-indigenous species, to bays and estuaries worldwide. To reduce the likelihood of new invasions, ships are increasingly being required to manage their ballast water (BW) prior to discharge in coastal waters. In the United States, most overseas arrivals have been required to manage BW discharge since 2004, primarily through ballast water exchange (BWE), which flushes out ballast tanks in the open ocean (>200 miles from shore). Studies have found BWE to generally reduce the abundance of organisms, and the amount of water exchanged has been estimated at 96–100%. Despite its widespread use, the overall effect of this management strategy on net propagule supply through time has not been explored. Here, temporal changes in zooplankton concentrations and the volume of BW discharged in Chesapeake Bay, U.S. were evaluated, comparing pre-management era and post-management era time periods. Chesapeake Bay is a large port system that receives extensive BW discharge, especially from bulk cargo vessels (bulkers) that export coal overseas. For bulkers arriving from overseas, mean zooplankton concentrations of total and coastal indicator taxa in BW did not decline between pre- (1993–2000) and post management (2012–2013) eras, when controlling for season and sampling method. Moreover, bulkers discharged 21 million tonnes (82% of total for Chesapeake Bay) of overseas BW in 2013, representing a 374% increase in volume when compared to 2005. The combination of BW discharge volume and zooplankton concentration data indicates that (a) net propagule supply by bulkers has increased since BWE began in Chesapeake Bay; and (b) changes in vessel behaviour and trade have contributed strongly to this outcome. Specifically, the coal-driven increase in BW discharge volume from 2005–2013, concurrent with the onset of BWE regulations, worked to counteract intended results from BW management. A long-term analysis of bulker arrivals (1994–2013) reveals a 20-year minimum in arrival numbers in 2000, just when the implementation of BWE began. This study underscores the need to consider shifts in trade patterns, in order to advance and evaluate effective management strategies for biological invasions.