Mark Shafer

The Pacific Rain Gage Rainfall Database

The Comprehensive Pacific Rainfall Database includes daily rain gage data from over 250 meteorological stations located on islands and atolls throughout the Pacific basin with records beginning in 1971 and extending up to the present. Included with these station records are data obtained from the Schools of the Pacific Rainfall Climate Experiment. The database includes a metadata file containing information pertaining to local island topography and other site characteristics. The data are constantly updated and are available to interested researchers through the Internet file transfer protocol system.

Analyzing projected changes and trends of temperature and precipitation in the southern USA from 16 downscaled global climate models

This study aims to examine how future climate, temperature and precipitation specifically, are expected to change under the A2, A1B, and B1 emission scenarios over the six states that make up the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP): Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi. SCIPP is a member of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments network, a program which aims to better connect climate-related scientific research with in-the-field decision-making processes. The results of the study found that the average temperature over the study area is anticipated to increase by 1.7°C to 2.4°C in the twenty-first century based on the different emission scenarios with a rate of change that is more pronounced during the second half of the century. Summer and fall seasons are projected to have more significant temperature increases, while the northwestern portions of the region are projected to experience more significant increases than the Gulf coast region. Precipitation projections, conversely, do not exhibit a discernible upward or downward trend. Late twenty-first century exhibits slightly more precipitation than the early century, based on the A1B and B1 scenario, and fall and winter are projected to become wetter than the late twentieth century as a whole. Climate changes on the city level show that greater warming will happened in inland cities such as Oklahoma City and El Paso, and heavier precipitation in Nashville. These changes have profound implications for local water resources management as well as broader regional decision making. These results represent an initial phase of a broader study that is being undertaken to assist SCIPP regional and local water planning efforts in an effort to more closely link climate modeling to longer-term water resources management and to continue assessing climate change impacts on regional hazards management in the South.

A Global Database of Tropical Storm Surges

Tropical cyclone–generated storm surges are among the worlds most deadly and costly natural disasters. The destructive nature of this hazard was clearly seen last fall, as Hurricane Sandy generated a devastating storm surge along the mid-Atlantic coast. The storm killed 147 people and caused approximately

Climate Literacy and a National Climate Service

50 billion in economic losses [Blake et al., 2012].

Climatological Drought Analyses and Projection Using SPI and PDSI: Case Study of the Arkansas Red River Basin

The effort to establish a National Climate Service would be incomplete without attention to climate literacy. Underpinning the demand for new services is a growing awareness of our collective vulnerability to climate variability and change. How that is portrayed is a challenging problem, one that cannot be answered through web-based delivery of products. Local, trusted sources of climate information are needed and these entities need to be supported as they engage those they serve in a sustained education process on climate. What is learned through this engagement relating to how information is presented and used will inform national efforts to increase services and relevance of climate information.

Storm Surge Return Periods for the United States Gulf Coast

This paper examines past drought and assesses future drought scenarios for the Arkansas Red River Basin using two common drought indexes, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Historical climate data within the 1900-2009 time frame were used to derive the past drought index estimates. The projected climate data under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 16 global climate models (GCMs) after bias correction and statistical downscaling were applied in drought occurrence fre- quency and affected area projection. The results derived from the SPI and PDSI show that widespread droughts mainly took place in the 1910s, 1930s, 1950s, and 1960s in the Arkansas Red River Basin, which agrees well with the historical climate record. Both the SPI and PDSI project that more frequent and severe droughts will appear in the second part of the 21st century under both of the emissions scenarios. Future PDSI projects that more severe droughts will occur in the western parts of this basin under one scenario. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943- 5584.0000619.

Hydro-Climatological Drought Analyses and Projections Using Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Indices: A Case Study in Blue River Basin, Oklahoma

This study estimates tropical cyclone-generated storm surge levels for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year and 100-year return periods along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The study utilizes SURGEDAT, a Gulf of Mexico storm surge database, for statistical analysis. The most recent 111 years (1900-2010) of this 131-year dataset are analyzed, as this time period maximizes surge observations, while minimizing missing data. Return periods are calculated using the Pareto, Gumbel and Beta-P distributions, and the Huff-Angel and Southern Regional Climate Center (SRCC) linear regression methods. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov Statistic indicates that the SRCC method produced the best results. The SRCC method estimated basin-wide surge levels ranging from 2.67 meters for the 2-year return period to 8.20 meters for the 100-year return period. A K-means clustering algorithm was employed to separate Gulf Coast surges into 10 separate sub-regions. Surge levels for the 10-year, 25-year, 50-year and 100-year return periods were calculated for each sub-region using the SRCC linear regression method. The Southeast Louisiana/ Mississippi Zone generated the highest surge levels for each return period. Surge levels in this zone ranged from 2.72 meters for the 10-year return period, to 7.67 meters for the 100-year return period. These high surge levels are obviously driven by the extreme surges associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Camille. The lowest surge levels in the region were estimated along the West Coast of Florida. These results are useful for emergency management and disaster science personnel, planners, decision makers, stakeholders in various industries, as well as the scientific research community.