Mark van Duijn

Expected and actual replacement rates in the pension system of the Netherlands: how and why do they differ?

This study examines the expected retirement replacement rates (RRs) of several cohorts of Dutch employees at the time of their planned retirements. It also computes RRs based on the available pension records. We find that the expected replacement rate (E(RR)) is, in general, higher than the ones we compute. Larger discrepancies are found for younger cohorts and for individuals with less education and working experience. We also examine the difference between the expected and computed RRs and find that the mismatch is mostly related to poor institutional knowledge. We also show the role of assumptions about institutions and wage profiles in determining our results.

Analysis of household location behaviour, local amenities and house prices in a sorting framework

After Tiebout’s seminal paper, a stream of literature emerged that studies the location choice behaviour of households. In the last two decades, the models developed generalised conventional hedonic analyses by studying house prices in a coherent empirical framework that incorporates heterogeneity among households and neighbourhoods. They offer new possibilities to study location choice in equilibrium with public goods in the Tiebout tradition. Moreover, they generalise the monocentric model of urban economics. This paper discusses these sorting models. Although the focus is on the policy-relevant questions that can be addressed by this approach, we pay due attention to the economic content of the models, and to some important econometric issues involved. An important feature of the sorting framework that we emphasise throughout the paper is that it allows one to study the impact of local amenities in a rigorous setting that allows for the computation of welfare measures, notably the willingness-to-pay of various groups for specific amenities. In the international literature, schools are the most intensively studied example, but other amenities, such as the presence of parks and ‘consumer city’ amenities, such as restaurants, cinemas and theatres can also be studied in this framework. The structural modelling of the impact of amenities by sorting models allows for policy simulations, in which the general equilibrium impact of changes in the value of these amenities can be analysed through counterfactual analysis.

Sorting Based on Urban Heritage and Income: Evidence from the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area

Urban heritage is often concentrated in conservation areas with a protected status. Previous research argues that urban heritage attracts especially higher educated households who are likely to have higher incomes. The presence of these households may have a further impact on the attractiveness of the neighborhoods concerned, for instance through endogenous amenities like better shops or schools. If this is the case for high income households, conservation areas will have a further impact on the area’s attractiveness through the demographic composition of the residential area. In this paper we investigate the interaction between the preference for urban heritage – as an exogenous amenity – and the preference for areas with a high concentration of high income households – as an endogenous amenity. We develop a logit-based sorting model in which different incom e groups interact and estimate it for the Amsterdam metropolitan area. Results show that all employed households highly value conservation areas and prefer to live in areas with a high concentration of high income households. We investigate the impact of urban heritage on house prices and welfare through counterfactual simulations. The disappearance of urban heritage would result in a substantially more suburbanized location pattern of the high income households in the Amsterdam metropolitan area, and to lower welfare for all income groups.

Measuring Diverging House Prices

House price indexes summarize the development of all house prices in a single number, while actual price movements often differ among market segments. We develop a methodology for measuring house prices as a flexible function of housing services – a one-dimensional quality measure – and apply it to test for the common assumption of identical price movements in all parts of the housing market. Our approach is based on a generalization of the familiar (constant unit price) Muth model to a situation of in which the unit price of housing services may depend on the quality level. We apply the method to a rich set of transaction data referring to Amsterdam in the period 1985-2013. We estimate an indicator of housing services based only on the ranking of house prices in postcode areas during periods of three months and compare the results to conventional hedonic price equations that embody the assumption of a unit price for housing services that does not depend on quality. We develop a test for a constant price per unit of housing services and reject it on the basis of price differences occurring over time as well as over space.

Transformations of industrial heritage: Insights into external effects on house prices

Local policy makers seek ways to deal with abandoned industrial heritage in their jurisdictions. Much is demolished, but in some cases considerable investments are made to preserve the cultural aspects of industrial sites. The renewal plans are usually designed to stimulate urban renewal in the vicinity of these sites. Little seems to be known about the effectiveness of these policies and in this paper, we study whether the redevelopment of five industrial heritage sites caused positive external effects by investigating the development of house prices in nearby residential areas. We use a quasi‐experimental design by comparing quality‐adjusted house prices before the start, between the start and the completion and after the completion of the transformation. We find substantial effects of one site, which is the best-known example of renovated industrial heritage in the Netherlands, but much smaller or no effects for the other sites. We also model the decay of these effects over time and space. We find different decay effects for each case. We conclude that industrial heritage sites do not necessarily cause negative external effects. If there are negative external effects present they disappear at the start of the transformation of the industrial heritage site, suggesting anticipation effects. Also, positive external effects on house prices after the redevelopment of industrial heritage are not necessarily present. The details of the transformation project (e.g. location, size of the site, size of the investment, focus on interior or exterior investments) seem to be important determinants that may cause the existence of positive external effects.