Mark Zuidgeest

Modeling Commuter Preferences for the Proposed Bus Rapid Transit in Dar-es-Salaam

The paper analyzes individual commuter preferences towards the proposed bus rapid transit (BRT) system in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. The objective of the survey was to identify how commuters perceive and value the proposed BRT service quality attributes. A stated preference survey of potential users of the proposed BRT was administered to 684 commuters who traveled to the central business district (CBD) on a regular basis. To this end, a special pictorial score card was developed that was suited for the local context and needed to capture the preferences of the commuter respondents. The BRT attributes considered for study are travel time, travel fare, and comfort. The stated choice data were analyzed using a binary logit model. The findings reveal, in order of importance, that comfort is the most valued attribute compared to travel time and travel fare, respectively.

Urban growth and transport infrastructure interaction in Jeddah between 1980 and 2007

This paper aims to use spatial statistical tools to explore the reciprocal spatial–temporal effects of transport infrastructure and urban growth of Jeddah city, a fast developing polycentric city in Saudi Arabia. Global spatial autocorrelation (Morans I) and local indicators of spatial association (LISA) are first used to analyze the spatial–temporal clustering of urban growth and transport infrastructure from 1980 to 2007. Then, spatial regression analysis is conducted to investigate the mutual spatial–temporal effects of urban growth and transport infrastructure. Results indicate a significant positive global spatial autocorrelation of all defined variables between 1980 and 2007. LISA results also reveal a constant significant spatial association of transport infrastructure expansion and urban growth variables from 1980 to 2007. The results not only indicate a mutual spatial influence of transport infrastructure and urban growth but also reveal that spatial clustering of transport infrastructure seems to be influenced by other factors. This study shows that transport infrastructure is a constant and strong spatial influencing factor of urban growth in the polycentric urban structure that Jeddah has. Overall, this study demonstrates that exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial regression analysis are able to detect the spatial–temporal mutual effects of transport infrastructure and urban growth. Further studies on the reciprocal relationship between urban growth and transport infrastructure using the study approach for the case of monocentric urban structure cities are necessary and encouraged.

Managing Transportation Infrastructure for Sustainable Development

Major requirements for operationalization of the concept of sustainable development in urban transportation infrastructure operations management are presented. In addition, it is shown that the current approach to management is incompatible with the requirements for sustainable urban development. Consequently, the conceptual framework of a desirable approach is proposed. The philosophy of this approach is that the basic mission of infrastructure operations management is to obtain and maintain the maximum levels of people and goods mobility possible within the resources and environmental capacities in an area. A mathematical model is presented for obtaining the desirable levels and characteristics of traffic on each segment of an urban transportation network. In addition, three illustrative applications of the implemented model are presented.

Mapping Equality in Access: The Case of Bogotá's Sustainable Transportation Initiatives

To enhance social equity, three important sustainable transportation initiatives have been introduced in Bogotá. Spatial information and GIS have been used to analyze levels of inequality in access to these initiatives. The results show that the TransMilenio BRT offers equal access for all socio-economic strata (SES). Nonetheless, its modal share is low for the poor due to affordability issues. The Cicloruta bicycle network and Ciclovía recreational program do not offer equal access for all SES, especially for the lower SES. Their users, however, mainly come from low and middle income SES. Marginal network extensions can improve equality in access.

Transport, Development and Climate Change Mitigation: Towards an Integrated Approach

Abstract Transport and infrastructure development enables economic and social development, but is often detrimental to sustainable development due to congestion, accidents, air pollution, as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Various policy frameworks have been created to connect transport with development, development with climate change and climate change mitigation with the transport sector. However, so far no consistent framework exists that addresses these three areas in an integrated manner.This article demonstrates that sustainable development of the transport sector is not viable on the longer term in the absence of such a three-way framework. First, current perspectives and practices on transport and (sustainable) development are reviewed, demonstrating that outcomes and policies are not consistently positive on all three dimensions. The article then re-evaluates the Avoid–Shift–Improve (ASI) approach, initially developed to address climate change mitigation and other environmental issues in the transport sector, adding two perspectives on sustainable development that are not generally taken into account when discussing ASI: transition theory and sustainable lifestyles. Together with attention to the development function of transport by incorporating Access into ASI, this could enable a more long-term sustainability-oriented view on transport, development and climate mitigation.

The Environmental Impact of not Having Paved Roads in Arid Regions: An Example from Mongolia

There is a generally held perception that roads have neg-ative environmental impacts (Clevenger et al. 2003;For-man 2003; Roedenbeck et al. 2007). Ironically, thisparadigm stems from regions where fences and regulationsrestrict vehicles to paved roads. The situation is different insparsely populated rural areas in the developing world,where the scarcity of paved roads forces drivers to createtheir own tracks, often with considerable environmentaldegradation as a result. Arid and semi-arid regions, espe-cially those with communal land ownership and easilymotorable terrain, are particularly prone to this practice andthe consequent degradation is widespread—plaguingregions in Central Asia, the Middle East (Batanouny 1985),South America (Pe´rez 1991), and Africa (Rickard et al.1994). In such circumstances, the paradigm contradicts itsown purpose—paved roads here would in fact have apositive environmental impact, as they reduce the need for‘‘off-road driving’’.The land degradation that could have been avoided bythe construction of paved roads can be seen clearly insatellite imagery. We illustrate the destructive potentialthat this practice is having in Mongolia.Mongolia is a sparsely populated, landlocked countrywhich has seen an economic growth spurt since the 1990s.This growth has given rise to an increased need for trans-port by road, not just internally, but also internationally, toand from Russia and China. Yet, almost all vehicularmobility in this vast country relies on dirt-tracks—in 2008only about 2,600 km of the 49,500 km of the nationalintercity roads were paved (National Statistical Office ofMongolia 2008).The land degradation typically begins when repeatedusage renders an original track unsuitable for driving due tothe formation of washboard, ruts, potholes, and corruga-tions in the soil—a process facilitated by snowmelt, rain-fall, and sub-soil permafrost-thawing. Consequently, asystem of quasi-parallel trails is generated, denuding largeswathes of land (Fig. 1a). The communal land tenure tra-dition in Mongolia (a predominantly nomadic pastoralistcountry) and usage of rugged 4-wheel drive vehicles fur-ther compounds the problem, as there is practically norestriction to either vehicular movement or vehicle speeds.In addition to generating dust, which affects drivingsafety, the compulsory use of dirt-tracks considerablyincreases the costs of goods and public transport due toincreased fuel consumption and vehicle maintenancerequirements. However, for the low traffic densities foundon many routes here, these costs are small in comparison tothe environmental costs. The passing of vehicle-tires deci-mates native flora and fauna, and also degrades habitat(Brown and Schoknecht 2001). Moreover, vehicles compactthe ground, damaging its ability to absorb and retainmoisture and nutrients (Belnap 2002). In doing so, surfacewater flows are concentrated and speeded up, thus leadingto soil erosion, increased sediment loads in water coursesand consequently, damage to aquatic habitats and waterquality as well (Misak et al. 2002). Full re-vegetation ofdamaged swaths takes between 10 and 15 years after thetrack has ceased to be in use. However, the pioneeringplants are mostly invasive weed species, such as Tumble-weed (Salsola collina), Fringed sagebrush (Artemisia frig-ida), and Chinese wild-ryegrass (Leymus chinensis), and notthe native grasses such as Needle-leaf sedge (Carex duri-uscula) and Feather-grass (Stipa krylovii), that are socio-economically important to the indigenous pastoralists,

Effect of neighbouring village conditions and infrastructure interdependency on economic opportunity: A case study of the Yogyakarta region, Indonesia

Abstract To determine whether the inclusion of conditions in neighbouring villages and infrastructure interdependency are able to improve the performance of infrastructure–economy interaction models, we compare three related and progressive concepts. The first concept defines economic opportunity in a village as a function of available infrastructure within that village. The second concept includes the effect of economic opportunity in neighbouring villages in addition to available infrastructure within the village. In the third concept, we include the interdependency of infrastructures as another factor affecting the potential level of economic development in the village. We use Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and a Geographic Information System (GIS) to model the first concept, and we add a spatial-lag model for the second. The third model expands on the second by introducing a Sugeno Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and a rule-based OLS to capture the nature of infrastructure interdependency. The result of the three models is validated by a known spatial distribution of poverty levels and subjective well-being that serve as proxies for economic opportunity in the Yogyakarta region in Indonesia. The results demonstrate that the third model provides a more accurate prediction of the real conditions and performs consistently better than the other two models. We therefore conclude that conditions in neighbouring villages and infrastructure interdependency influence the economic opportunity of a village and should be considered in policy making regarding resource allocation in infrastructure development.

Urban Growth and Transport: Understanding the Spatial Temporal Relationship

This paper describes how public transport and urban growth are strongly related. In fact, there is a reciprocal relationship between transport and urban growth. In order to understand this relationship, it is necessary to analyze urban spatial temporal changes and their related causes and effects. An extensive evidence-based and scientific description of the relationship between urban growth and transport is presented in this paper. This relationship is specifically explored for Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia, applying spatial temporal analysis techniques from remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Spatial and statistical analyses have been used to analyze and relate urban growth and transport spatial temporal indicators. Results indicate a strong reciprocal relationship between urban growth and transport in Jeddah City. The paper found that transport infrastructure expansion strongly correlates with population growth, spatial expansion and land use change. Results also reveal that population growth has increased urban trips and the consequent travel demand, and there is imbalance between travel demand and transport infrastructure supply that explains the increase in congestion. This study also points out a strong significant influence of transport infrastructure on spatial temporal expansion and land use change. It is found that highways and main roads have stronger influence on spatial expansion and land use change in comparison with secondary roads. Although, this study provides significant information for transport and urban development policies, further research is encouraged to use spatial statistical analysis and dynamic modeling to study the reciprocal relationship between urban growth and transport.

Spatial Preference Modelling for equitable infrastructure provision: an application of Sen’s Capability Approach

To determine whether the inclusion of spatial neighbourhood comparison factors in Preference Modelling allows spatial decision support systems (SDSSs) to better address spatial equity, we introduce Spatial Preference Modelling (SPM). To evaluate the effectiveness of this model in addressing equity, various standardisation functions in both Non-Spatial Preference Modelling and SPM are compared. The evaluation involves applying the model to a resource location-allocation problem for transport infrastructure in the Special Province of Yogyakarta in Indonesia. We apply Amartya Sen’s Capability Approach to define opportunity to mobility as a non-income indicator. Using the extended Moran’s I interpretation for spatial equity, we evaluate the distribution output regarding, first, ‘the spatial distribution patterns of priority targeting for allocation’ (SPT) and, second, ‘the effect of new distribution patterns after location-allocation’ (ELA). The Moran’s I index of the initial map and its comparison with six patterns for SPT as well as ELA consistently indicates that the SPM is more effective for addressing spatial equity. We conclude that the inclusion of spatial neighbourhood comparison factors in Preference Modelling improves the capability of SDSS to address spatial equity. This study thus proposes a new formal method for SDSS with specific attention on resource location-allocation to address spatial equity.

Urban Form and Accessibility to Jobs A Comparison of Hanoi and Randstad Metropolitan Areas

Accessibility is a comprehensive performance measure for the integration between land use and transport systems. In this research, two accessibility measures were applied to evaluate the integration between transport and land use in Hanoi metropolitan area: Vietnam, which has a typical monocentric urban form in the current situation, and Randstad metropolitan area, the Netherlands, which has a typical polycentric urban form. Job accessibility by private and public transport was calculated using the traditional potential accessibility measure corrected for competition of jobs. The results show there is a potential improvement of levels of accessibility in Hanoi through its planned transition into a polycentric urban form. The results illustrate the complex relationship between urban and regional planning and transport, and how spatial knowledge and geographic information system (GIS) tools can be used to provide urban planners, transport planners and engineers in Hanoi with valuable information related to its present plans of decentralization, and bring them together.