Markus Aly

Prostate cancer screening in men aged 50–69 years (STHLM3): a prospective population-based diagnostic study

BACKGROUND The prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test is used to screen for prostate cancer but has a high false-positive rate that translates into unnecessary prostate biopsies and overdiagnosis of low-risk prostate cancers. We aimed to develop and validate a model to identify high-risk prostate cancer (with a Gleason score of at least 7) with better test characteristics than that provided by PSA screening alone. METHODS The Stockholm 3 (STHLM3) study is a prospective, population-based, paired, screen-positive, diagnostic study of men without prostate cancer aged 50-69 years randomly invited by date of birth from the Swedish Population Register kept by the Swedish Tax Agency. Men with prostate cancer at enrolment were excluded from the study. The predefined STHLM3 model (a combination of plasma protein biomarkers [PSA, free PSA, intact PSA, hK2, MSMB, MIC1], genetic polymorphisms [232 SNPs], and clinical variables [age, family, history, previous prostate biopsy, prostate exam]), and PSA concentration were both tested in all participants enrolled. The primary aim was to increase the specificity compared with PSA without decreasing the sensitivity to diagnose high-risk prostate cancer. The primary outcomes were number of detected high-risk cancers (sensitivity) and the number of performed prostate biopsies (specificity). The STHLM3 training cohort was used to train the STHLM3 model, which was prospectively tested in the STHLM3 validation cohort. Logistic regression was used to test for associations between biomarkers and clinical variables and prostate cancer with a Gleason score of at least 7. This study is registered with ISCRTN.com, number ISRCTN84445406. FINDINGS The STHLM3 model performed significantly better than PSA alone for detection of cancers with a Gleason score of at least 7 (p<0·0001), the area under the curve was 0·56 (95% CI 0·55-0·60) with PSA alone and 0·74 (95% CI 0·72-0·75) with the STHLM3 model. All variables used in the STHLM3 model were significantly associated with prostate cancers with a Gleason score of at least 7 (p<0·05) in a multiple logistic regression model. At the same level of sensitivity as the PSA test using a cutoff of ≥3 ng/mL to diagnose high risk prostate cancer, use of the STHLM3 model could reduce the number of biopsies by 32% (95% CI 24-39) and could avoid 44% (35-54) of benign biopsies. INTERPRETATION The STHLM3 model could reduce unnecessary biopsies without compromising the ability to diagnose prostate cancer with a Gleason score of at least 7, and could be a step towards personalised risk-based prostate cancer diagnostic programmes. FUNDING Stockholm County Council (Stockholms Läns Landsting).

Polygenic risk score improves prostate cancer risk prediction: results from the Stockholm-1 cohort study.

BACKGROUND More than 1 million prostate biopsies are conducted yearly in the United States. The low specificity of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) results in diagnostic biopsies in men without prostate cancer (PCa). Additional information, such as genetic markers, could be used to avoid unnecessary biopsies. OBJECTIVE To determine whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with PCa can be used to determine whether biopsy of the prostate is necessary. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS The Stockholm-1 cohort (n = 5241) consisted of men who underwent a prostate biopsy during 2005 to 2007. PSA levels were retrieved from databases and family histories were obtained using a questionnaire. Thirty-five validated SNPs were analysed and converted into a genetic risk score that was implemented in a risk-prediction model. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS When comparing the nongenetic model (based on age, PSA, free-to-total PSA, and family history) with the genetic model and using a fixed number of detected PCa cases, it was found that the genetic model required significantly fewer biopsies than the nongenetic model, with 480 biopsies (22.7%) avoided, at a cost of missing a PCa diagnosis in 3% of patients characterised as having an aggressive disease. However, the overall genetic model does not discriminate between aggressive and nonaggressive cases. CONCLUSION Although the genetic model reduced the number of biopsies more than the nongenetic model, the clinical significance of this finding requires further evaluation.

A population-based assessment of germline HOXB13 G84E mutation and prostate cancer risk.

BACKGROUND A rare but recurrent missense mutation (G84E, rs138213197) in the gene homeobox B13 (HOXB13) was recently reported to be associated with hereditary prostate cancer. OBJECTIVE To explore the prevalence and penetrance of HOXB13 G84E in a general population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS G84E and 14 additional HOXB13 polymorphisms were genotyped in two population-based, Swedish, case-control samples (Cancer of the Prostate in Sweden [CAPS] and Stockholm-1) comprising 4693 controls and 5003 prostate cancer cases. CAPS collected data on patients and population controls nationally between 2001 and 2003. Stockholm-1 collected data on biopsy-positive patients and biopsy-negative controls in the Stockholm area between 2005 and 2007. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS The outcome was pathologically verified prostate cancer. Relative and absolute risks among HOXB13 G84E mutation carriers were explored, as was the combined impact on disease risk of G84E and a polygenic score based on 33 established, common, low-risk variants. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS HOXB13 G84E was observed in 1.3% of population controls and was strongly associated with prostate cancer risk (CAPS: odds ratio [OR]: 3.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2-5.4; Stockholm-1: OR: 3.5; 95% CI, 2.4-5.2). The strongest association was observed for young-onset (OR: 8.6; 95% CI, 5.1-14.0) and hereditary (OR: 6.6; 95% CI, 3.3-12.0) prostate cancer. Haplotype analyses supported that G84E is a founder mutation. G84E carriers have an estimated 33% (95% CI, 23-46) cumulative risk to age 80 yr of prostate cancer, compared to 12% (95% CI, 11-13) among noncarriers. For G84E carriers within the top quartile of a polygenic score of established susceptibility variants, the cumulative risk was estimated at 48% (95% CI, 36-64). CONCLUSIONS HOXB13 G84E is prevalent in >1% of the Swedish population and is associated with a 3.5-fold increased risk of prostate cancer. One-third of G84E carriers will be diagnosed with prostate cancer, which has implications for surveillance in mutation carriers.

Birt-Hogg-Dubé renal tumors are genetically distinct from other renal neoplasias and are associated with up-regulation of mitochondrial gene expression

BackgroundGermline mutations in the folliculin (FLCN) gene are associated with the development of Birt-Hogg-Dubé syndrome (BHDS), a disease characterized by papular skin lesions, a high occurrence of spontaneous pneumothorax, and the development of renal neoplasias. The majority of renal tumors that arise in BHDS-affected individuals are histologically similar to sporadic chromophobe renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and sporadic renal oncocytoma. However, most sporadic tumors lack FLCN mutations and the extent to which the BHDS-derived renal tumors share genetic defects associated with the sporadic tumors has not been well studied.MethodsBHDS individuals were identified symptomatically and FLCN mutations were confirmed by DNA sequencing. Comparative gene expression profiling analyses were carried out on renal tumors isolated from individuals afflicted with BHDS and a panel of sporadic renal tumors of different subtypes using discriminate and clustering approaches. qRT-PCR was used to confirm selected results of the gene expression analyses. We further analyzed differentially expressed genes using gene set enrichment analysis and pathway analysis approaches. Pathway analysis results were confirmed by generation of independent pathway signatures and application to additional datasets.ResultsRenal tumors isolated from individuals with BHDS showed distinct gene expression and cytogenetic characteristics from sporadic renal oncocytoma and chromophobe RCC. The most prominent molecular feature of BHDS-derived kidney tumors was high expression of mitochondria-and oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS)-associated genes. This mitochondria expression phenotype was associated with deregulation of the PGC-1α-TFAM signaling axis. Loss of FLCN expression across various tumor types is also associated with increased nuclear mitochondrial gene expression.ConclusionsOur results support a genetic distinction between BHDS-associated tumors and other renal neoplasias. In addition, deregulation of the PGC-1α-TFAM signaling axis is most pronounced in renal tumors that harbor FLCN mutations and in tumors from other organs that have relatively low expression of FLCN. These results are consistent with the recently discovered interaction between FLCN and AMPK and support a model in which FLCN is a regulator of mitochondrial function.

Prostate-specific Antigen (PSA) Testing Is Prevalent and Increasing in Stockholm County, Sweden, Despite No Recommendations for PSA Screening: Results from a Population-based Study, 2003–2011

BACKGROUND Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing has increased in several countries. There is incomplete knowledge of PSA testing patterns. OBJECTIVE Determine the prevalence of PSA testing and explore patterns of PSA retesting in Stockholm County, Sweden. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A population-based study was performed. Through registry linkages, we collected population information, data on PSA tests, pathology reports, and clinical information. The study population comprised males living in Stockholm County in 2011 (n=1034129), of which 229 872 had a PSA test during the period 2003-2011. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS We determined limited-duration-point prevalence of PSA testing and performed survival analysis on PSA retesting for men aged 40-89 yr. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS The number of PSA tests increased from 54239 in 2003 to 124613 in 2011. During the 9-yr study period, 46%, 68%, and 77% of men without a prior prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis and aged 50-59 yr, 60-69 yr, and 70-79 yr, respectively, had a PSA test. During 2010 and 2011, 25%, 40%, and 46% of men aged 50-59 yr, 60-69 yr, and 70-79 yr, respectively, had a PSA test. The prevalence of PSA testing increased from 2003 to 2011. The probability of retesting was PSA and age dependent, with a 26-mo cumulative incidence of 0.337 (95% confidence interval, 0.333-0.341) if the first PSA value was <1 ng/ml. The main limitations were (1) that PSA data prior to 2003 were not available and (2) that the study cohort was restricted to men who were alive in 2011. CONCLUSIONS Although screening for PCa is not recommended in Sweden, PSA testing in Stockholm County was high across ages ranging from 40 to 89 yr and increased during the period 2003-2011. The probability of PSA retesting was high, regardless of the original PSA level. These results contrast with current clinical recommendations and raise calls for a change, either through structured PCa testing or more detailed guidelines on PSA testing.

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same region.

Fine-Mapping the HOXB Region Detects Common Variants Tagging a Rare Coding Allele: Evidence for Synthetic Association in Prostate Cancer

The HOXB13 gene has been implicated in prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility. We performed a high resolution fine-mapping analysis to comprehensively evaluate the association between common genetic variation across the HOXB genetic locus at 17q21 and PrCa risk. This involved genotyping 700 SNPs using a custom Illumina iSelect array (iCOGS) followed by imputation of 3195 SNPs in 20,440 PrCa cases and 21,469 controls in The PRACTICAL consortium. We identified a cluster of highly correlated common variants situated within or closely upstream of HOXB13 that were significantly associated with PrCa risk, described by rs117576373 (OR 1.30, P = 2.62×10−14). Additional genotyping, conditional regression and haplotype analyses indicated that the newly identified common variants tag a rare, partially correlated coding variant in the HOXB13 gene (G84E, rs138213197), which has been identified recently as a moderate penetrance PrCa susceptibility allele. The potential for GWAS associations detected through common SNPs to be driven by rare causal variants with higher relative risks has long been proposed; however, to our knowledge this is the first experimental evidence for this phenomenon of synthetic association contributing to cancer susceptibility.

Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score.

Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate cancer risk at a genome‐wide significant level will improve disease prediction.

Rapid increase in multidrug‐resistant enteric bacilli blood stream infection after prostate biopsy—A 10‐year population‐based cohort study

Bloodstream infection following a transrectal prostate biopsy is a well‐known and feared complication. Previous studies have shown an increase in multi‐resistant bacterial infections as a consequence of higher usage of antibiotics in investigated populations. Our aim was to analyze bacterial resistance patterns in positive blood cultures, after prostate biopsies in Stockholm, Sweden, where the use of antibiotics has been low and decreasing during the last 10 years.

Genome-Wide Association Study of Prostate Cancer–Specific Survival

Background: Unnecessary intervention and overtreatment of indolent disease are common challenges in clinical management of prostate cancer. Improved tools to distinguish lethal from indolent disease are critical. Methods: We performed a genome-wide survival analysis of cause-specific death in 24,023 prostate cancer patients (3,513 disease-specific deaths) from the PRACTICAL and BPC3 consortia. Top findings were assessed for replication in a Norwegian cohort (CONOR). Results: We observed no significant association between genetic variants and prostate cancer survival. Conclusions: Common genetic variants with large impact on prostate cancer survival were not observed in this study. Impact: Future studies should be designed for identification of rare variants with large effect sizes or common variants with small effect sizes. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 24(11); 1796–800. ©2015 AACR.