Markus Eberhardt

ECONOMETRICS FOR GRUMBLERS: A NEW LOOK AT THE LITERATURE ON CROSS-COUNTRY GROWTH EMPIRICS

Since the seminal contribution of Gregory Mankiw, David Romer and David Weil (1992), the growth empirics literature has used increasingly sophisticated methods to select relevant growth determinants in estimating cross-section growth regressions. The vast majority of empirical approaches however limit cross-country heterogeneity in production technology to the specification of Total Factor Productivity, the ‘measure of our ignorance’ (Abramowitz, 1956). The central theme of this survey is an investigation of this choice of specification against the background of pertinent data properties when the units of observations are countries or regions and the time-series dimension of the data becomes substantial. We present two general empirical frameworks for cross-country productivity analysis and demonstrate that they encompass the approaches in the growth empirics literature of the past two decades. We then develop our central argument, that cross-country heterogeneity in the impact of observables and unobservables on output is important for reliable empirical analysis. This idea is developed against the background of the pertinent time-series and cross-section properties of macro panel data.

Do Spillovers Matter When Estimating Private Returns to R&D?

A large body of literature estimates private returns to R&D adopting the Griliches knowledge production framework which ignores the potential impact of spillovers on consistent estimation. Using a panel of 12 manufacturing industries across ten OECD economies, we investigate whether ignoring spillovers leads to bias in the estimated private returns to R&D. We compare results from a common factor framework, which accounts for spillovers and other unobserved shocks, to those from a standard Griliches approach. Our findings confirm that conventional estimates conflate own-R&D and spillover effects, implying that spillovers cannot be ignored even when the interest lies exclusively in evaluating private returns to R&D.

No Mangoes in the Tundra: Spatial Heterogeneity in Agricultural Productivity Analysis

In line with the wider macro productivity literature existing studies of agricultural production largely neglect technology heterogeneity, variable time-series properties and the potential for heterogeneous but correlated total factor productivity (TFP) across countries. Our empirical approach accommodates these difficulties and seeks to model the nature of the cross-section dependence in a sample of 128 countries (1961–2002). Our results suggest that agro-climatic environment drives similarity in TFP evolution across countries with heterogeneous production technology. This provides a possible explanation for the failure of technology transfer from advanced countries of the temperate ‘North’ to arid and/or equatorial developing countries of the ‘South’.

This Time They are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship between Debt and Growth

We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modeling the debt-growth relationship as heterogeneous across countries. We investigate the issue of nonlinearities (debt thresholds) in both the cross-country and within-country dimensions, employing novel methods and diagnostics from the time-series literature adapted for use in the panel. We find some support for a nonlinear relationship between debt and long-run growth across countries, but no evidence for common debt thresholds within countries over time.

Human resource barriers to partnership sourcing in China

Building on previous research on both buyer–supplier relations and human resource management in the PRC, interviews with managers in each of 47 UK-owned PRC subsidiaries were undertaken. The majority of firms are actively pursuing close and cooperative relationships with local suppliers, but there are substantial human resource barriers to the establishment of partnership sourcing arrangements. Grounded analysis reveals key HR barriers to partnership sourcing in the form of difficulties in staff recruitment and retention, problems in cross-cultural communication, poor working practices in supplier firms, and corrupt staff behaviour. This paper describes and analyses these problems, discusses measures that are being taken in an attempt to overcome the problems, and comments on the progress being made towards ‘ideal type’ partnership sourcing arrangements.

Is the Dragon Learning to Fly? An Analysis of the Chinese Patent Explosion

This paper analyses characteristics of the recent explosion of patent filings by Chinese firms both domestically and in the United States. We construct a firm-level dataset by matching USPTO and SIPO patents to Chinese manufacturing census data for 1999-2006. Using this integrated dataset we show that the patent explosion is accounted for by a tiny, highly select group of Chinese companies in the ICT equipment industry. Our analysis further suggests that firms patenting in both the US and China are younger, larger and more export-oriented than firms patenting exclusively in China.

NONLINEARITIES IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEBT AND GROWTH: (NO) EVIDENCE FROM OVER TWO CENTURIES

I revisit the popular concern over a nonlinearity or threshold in the relationship between public debt and growth employing long time series data from up to 27 countries. My empirical approach recognizes that standard time series arguments for long-run equilibrium relations between integrated variables (cointegration) break down in nonlinear specifications such as those predominantly applied in the existing debt–growth literature. Adopting the novel cosummability approach, my analysis overcomes these difficulties to find no evidence for a systematic long-run relationship between debt and growth in the bivariate and economic theory-based multivariate specifications popular in this literature.

Assessing Market (Dis)Integration in Early Modern China and Europe

This paper challenges established claims of comparable degrees of market integration in Europe and China on the eve of industrialization. Our empirical strategy focuses on the dynamics of price convergence and accounts for general equilibrium effects arising from common shocks and network effects. Using monthly grain prices for 1740-1820 our analysis uncovers a secular process of market disintegration in 221 prefectures of Qing China. Comparing our results with those for grain price panels from Western Europe we conclude that in terms of market integration the Great Divergence was well under way decades before the start of the 19th century.

Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises

We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.